Nov. 20, 2021

"Texas grid vulnerable to blackouts during severe winter weather, even with new preparations, ERCOT estimates show" was first published by The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan media organization that informs Texans — and engages with them — about public policy, politics, government and statewide issues.

Sign up for The Brief, our daily newsletter that keeps readers up to speed on the most essential Texas news.

Electricity outages in Texas could occur this winter if the state experiences a cold snap that forces many power plants offline at the same time as demand for power is high, according to an analysis by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The outages could occur despite better preparations by power plants to operate in cold weather.

Heading into the winter, ERCOT considered five extreme scenarios in a risk assessment of the state's power supply. The grid operator estimates both how much electricity Texans are expected to demand and how much electricity power plants are expected to produce ahead of each season.

Following the widespread February power outages that left millions without electricity for several days, ERCOT changed those assessments to calculate what would happen if extreme conditions occurred simultaneously — like what happened this year.

The calculations show the power grid's vulnerability to the cumulative impact of multiple pressures that could leave the system short of a significant amount of power. Power grids must keep supply and demand in balance at all times. When Texas' grid falls below its safety margin of 2,300 megawatts of extra supply, ERCOT, the grid operator, starts taking additional precautions to avoid blackouts, such as asking residents to conserve power.

The calculations for severe risk this winter show that it wouldn't take a storm as bad as the one in February, when hundreds of people died, to take the grid offline.

The most severe scenario considered by ERCOT for this winter — very high demand for power, extensive natural gas and other fossil fuel outages, and excessively low renewable power production — still does not capture the amount of power lost during February. For two days in February, Texas averaged 34,000 megawatts of outages, according to a recent federal report on the crisis. ERCOT's seasonal assessment for this winter estimates that the state, in the worst case scenario, could have only about 10,000 to 19,000 megawatts of total outages at any one time, assuming better preparation by power plants for this winter as opposed to last.

“As part of our comprehensive planning, we also reviewed a number of low-probability, high-impact scenarios," said Chris Schein, a spokesperson for ERCOT, in a statement. “Generators across the state have made improvements in power plant weatherization."

Regulators in October finalized a rule that requires power plants to use “best efforts" to ensure plants can operate this winter and requires them to fix “acute" issues from the February 2021 winter storm.

ERCOT also estimated that Texans would demand, at most, about 73,000 megawatts of electricity at any given time, based on weather from a decade ago in 2011 and economic forecasts for 2020. But during the February power crisis, experts estimate that Texans needed about 77,000 megawatts to keep the power on.

“We've had years of poor planning of peak [demand] by ERCOT," said Alison Silverstein, an expert on Texas' electricity system who formerly worked at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and the Public Utility Commission of Texas. She spoke during a public event hosted by the environmental group the Sierra Club on Saturday. “ERCOT's power market has historically been managed to minimize costs, not to assure excellent reliability."

Four of the five extreme risk scenarios ERCOT considered would leave the grid short a significant amount of power, which would trigger outages for residents.

The extreme scenarios have a low chance of occurring, ERCOT emphasises in its report, and the grid operator estimates more power generation will be available than last winter.

Under typical winter grid conditions, the ERCOT report said, there will be sufficient power available to serve the state.

This article originally appeared in The Texas Tribune at https://www.texastribune.org/2021/11/20/texas-grid-ercot-winter-estimates/.

The Texas Tribune is a member-supported, nonpartisan newsroom informing and engaging Texans on state politics and policy. Learn more at texastribune.org.

Oil and gas industry groups had a heavy hand in choosing representatives to serve on a council intended to ensure energy and electricity operations continue during extreme weather conditions, emails provided to The Texas Tribune and confirmed by the Texas Railroad Commission show.

The council, recently formalized by the Texas Legislature in the aftermath of the power crisis earlier this year is supposed to ensure the energy and electric industries meet “high priority human needs" and “address critical infrastructure concerns" — responsibilities lawmakers assigned to it after the previous, informal group failed to ensure natural gas suppliers could transport enough fuel to power plants during the February winter storm.

The lack of fuel ultimately forced more electricity offline, lengthening the crisis for Texans, millions of whom lost power, heat and, at times, safe drinking water during the dayslong blackouts. The power outages, primarily caused by the inability of power plants to operate in the extreme cold, caused the deaths of as many as 700 people, according to a BuzzFeed analysis, and caused an estimated $86 billion to $129 billion in economic damage, according to The Perryman Group, a Texas economic firm.

In response, lawmakers beefed up the Texas Energy Reliability Council in Senate Bill 3, a sweeping piece of legislation passed in the aftermath of the storm. The overhaul included formalizing the previously loose group of industry representatives into a 25-member council with regulators to head it, requiring the council to “foster communication and planning" to ensure energy and electricity are prepared to meet Texans' needs, and assigning it a biennial report on the stability of the state's electricity supply.

The revamped council, known as TERC, is composed of electricity, energy and environmental regulators, as well as five participants each from the natural gas supply chain and the electric industry. Those industry representatives are appointed by state regulators, including the Railroad Commission.

An email provided to the Tribune shows that the Texas Oil and Gas Association, one of the most influential oil and gas industry groups in Texas, provided a list of names to the Railroad Commission's executive director for appointment to the council in August. The Railroad Commission of Texas regulates the oil and gas industry.

Two months later, all four of the industry groups' top choices were confirmed to the council by regulators.

Bob Stein, a professor of political science at Rice University and expert on political ethics, said that governments often need and want people from the industry to advise them or serve on boards because of their knowledge of the sector. But he said there should be clear distinctions between industry interests and those of regulators — and rules to ensure the lines aren't blurred.

“We have to be able to appoint people who know something about what they're regulating," Stein said. “But it's all about whose interest are we looking out for: the public or the industry? Who do we really represent?"

A spokesperson for the Railroad Commission said the agency sought assistance from “various associations" because their membership represents all aspects of the natural gas supply chain.

“We vetted recommendations for experience and conducted background checks," Andrew Keese, spokesperson for the Railroad Commission, said in a statement. “RRC believes each of the appointees represent the best mix of experiences and expertise from the natural gas industry."

Industry group went 4-for-4 with its chosen candidates

On Aug. 20, Tulsi Oberbeck, director of government and regulatory affairs for the Texas Oil and Gas Association, emailed Wei Wang, executive director of the Railroad Commission, with a list of names.

“Thank you for the work of the Commission in its efforts to implement the new TERC," Oberbeck wrote, copying several other influential oil and gas industry groups, including the Texas Pipeline Association, the Texas Independent Producers and Royalty Owners Association, and the Texas Alliance of Energy Producers.

“Collectively, we have come together to recommend the attached candidates for possible appointment to the TERC," she wrote.

The list included four “primary" candidates for each market segment position on the council (except for local gas distribution) as well as an alternate candidate.

By contrast, the Public Utility Commission of Texas — charged with appointing market representatives for the electric sector on the council — solicited applications through a public docket. Executive director Thomas Gleeson issued instructions for applicants in mid-September, requiring a letter of interest, qualifications, a resume and a letter of recommendation.

While some industry groups such as the Association of Electric Companies of Texas, a trade organization of electric companies, recommended candidates to the PUCT, not all of its recommendations were chosen, and the agency also received several self-nominations, some of whom were appointed to the council.

The Texas Oil and Gas Association, in a statement, said that the Railroad Commission asked industry groups to provide a joint recommendation for the market appointees because the groups would be best suited to make those recommendations.

“Our criteria for recommendations to the TERC were those who hold a deep understanding of the intricacies of the natural gas system," Oberbeck said through a spokesperson. She said that TXOGA and other oil and gas industry groups held a conference call to discuss recommendations for the council.

“Industry suggesting members who are most familiar with how to make this system work during dire circumstances is not only appropriate, but imperative to ensuring preparedness this winter," Oberbeck said.

The new members recommended by TXOGA and confirmed by the Railroad Commission are Jason Herrick, president of Pantera Energy, an Amarillo-based oil and gas well driller and operator; Grant Ruckel, vice president for government affairs at Energy Transfer, one of the largest natural gas pipeline companies in the U.S.; Daniel Wesson, executive vice president of operations for Diamondback Energy, Inc., an independent upstream oil and gas producer; and Graham Bacon, executive vice president and chief operating officer of Enterprise Products Partners, a large oil and gas pipeline company based in Houston.

The only gas industry representative not recommended to the Railroad Commission by TXOGA is Keith Wall, director of regulatory affairs for southern gas operations at CenterPoint Energy. Wall is on the council to represent local gas distribution companies, often owned by municipalities or electric utility companies.

Consumer advocacy groups said the Railroad Commission's process lacked transparency and fairness, and some of the appointees were affiliated with companies that profited during the winter storm, such as Energy Transfer.

“I think it's really concerning for the people of Texas that all of these financial interests are going to be sitting in a room making decisions for all of us," said Virginia Palacios, executive director of Commission Shift, a newly formed Texas environment and consumer group targeting change at the Railroad Commission. “The people who profited the most from this major disaster are going to be sitting on this [council]."

Agency leaders have ties to industry they regulate

The Railroad Commission has long been criticized for its cozy relationship with the industry it regulates, particularly due to the reported financial interests of its commissioners. Commissioner Christi Craddick and her father, Republican State Rep. Tom Craddick, R-Midland, have consistently reported financial interests in the oil and gas industry in public disclosures. The two fiercely defended the oil and gas industry's role in the February power grid crisis during public legislative hearings.

Railroad Commissioners are elected in statewide, partisan elections, and the majority of their campaigns are funded by oil and gas companies. Texas law does not impose a cap on campaign contributions for statewide office campaigns. In 2013, the Texas Sunset Commission, which evaluates how well state agencies are functioning, recommended changes to the commission's campaign limits, a point that caused a bill to overhaul the Railroad Commission to fail during that session.

A recent report by Commission Shift, the environmental and consumer group, found that Commissioner Craddick reported between $1.5 million to $1.9 million in oil and gas assets, according to an analysis of Craddick's personal disclosures in 2020, but only recused herself from two matters due to a personal or private interest in the last five years. The report found four cases in which Craddick's personal finances “seemed to intertwine with her official duties" and did not recuse herself.

In a response to the report, Commissioner Craddick said she takes state ethics laws seriously.

“My personal financial statements are fully disclosed to the letter of the law and publicly accessible," she wrote through a spokesperson. “Texas Ethics Commission laws ensure transparency of our public officials and maintain the public's trust in our ability to appropriately govern, and I take these laws seriously."

Texas has lax rules around campaign finance and conflicts of interest in government because of the oil and gas industry's influence, said Stein, the Rice professor. He compared it to New York, where similarly lax laws are a result of the highly influential finance industry.

“It's not unique and peculiar to southern states or to red states," he said. “It's peculiar to the dominant industry and economic interest in that state. And we are, as a state, very much dependent on oil and gas and energy."

The Railroad Commission is currently designing rules to designate certain natural gas facilities as “critical," a designation that would help electric utility companies avoid cutting power to important facilities during mandatory power outages, which lengthened the February blackouts.

“Critical" facilities should be able to function during weather emergencies, but some lawmakers are frustrated that natural gas companies may be able to opt out of the proposed requirements if they don't voluntarily declare themselves as “critical" infrastructure — even though the Legislature added that loophole to the legislation. The agency's deadline to adopt the rule is Dec. 1.

Disclosure: The Association of Electric Companies of Texas (AECT), CenterPoint Energy, Rice University, the Texas Alliance of Energy Producers and Texas Pipeline Association have been financial supporters of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune's journalism. Find a complete list of them here.

This article originally appeared in The Texas Tribune at https://www.texastribune.org/2021/10/21/texas-railroad-commission-power-grid-council/.

The Texas Tribune is a member-supported, nonpartisan newsroom informing and engaging Texans on state politics and policy. Learn more at texastribune.org.

Climate change is making Texas hotter, threatening public health, water supply and the state's infrastructure

"Climate change is making Texas hotter, threatening public health, water supply and the state's infrastructure" was first published by The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan media organization that informs Texans — and engages with them — about public policy, politics, government and statewide issues.

Sign up for The Brief, our daily newsletter that keeps readers up to speed on the most essential Texas news.

Climate change has made the Texas heat worse, with less relief as nighttime temperatures warm, a report from the state's climatologist published Thursday found.

Climate data also show that the state is experiencing extreme rainfall — especially in eastern Texas — bigger storm surges as seas rise along the Gulf Coast and more flooding from hurricanes strengthened by a warming ocean, the report says.

Those trends are expected to accelerate in the next 15 years, according to the report, which analyzes extreme weather risks for the state and was last updated in 2019. The report was funded in part by Texas 2036, a nonpartisan economic policy nonprofit group named for the state's upcoming bicentennial.

The average annual temperature in Texas is expected to be 3 degrees warmer by 2036 than the average of the 1950s, the report found. The number of 100-degree days is expected to nearly double compared with 2000-2018, especially in urban areas.

“From here on out, it's going to be very unusual that we ever have a year as mild as a typical year during the 20th century," said John Nielsen-Gammon, the Texas state climatologist who authored the report. “Just about all of them are going to be warmer."

A hotter Texas will threaten public health, squeeze the state's water supply, strain the electric grid and push more species toward extinction, experts told The Texas Tribune.

Nielsen-Gammon said that weather data showed minimum temperatures across the state have rapidly risen in recent years. The entire baseline of temperatures in the state has shifted upward — a trend that is likely to continue to cause problems for the state's aging infrastructure, experts said.

“I was surprised at how strong the upward trend was in the coldest temperatures of the summer," Nielsen-Gammon said. While global temperature analysis had already shown that trend, he said, it is now very clearly happening on the local level in Texas.

Even this year, which was considered a mild year because Texas didn't see temperatures above 100 degrees in much of the state, Nielsen-Gammon said nighttime temperatures stayed warm enough to put 2021 in the top 20% of years with the hottest summer nights on record.

Persistently higher temperatures cause a host of issues for public health. Heat stroke becomes more common, and the number of days and hours each year when it's safe to work outdoors is reduced. In the last decade, 53 workers in Texas have died from a heat stroke, nearly double the number of workers that died in the decade prior, according to an NPR investigation.

Droughts are enhanced, which places even more pressure on the state's rivers and lakes, already strained by a growing population. And pathogens can more easily grow and infiltrate public water systems.

“If you have situations where more parts of the state are pulling from lower reservoirs, rivers that are flowing less and warmer water temperatures, there's a real concern about what pathogens end up in [the water] system," said Gabriel Collins, a Baker Botts fellow in energy and environmental affairs at Rice University.

In Lake Jackson in 2020, a brain-eating amoeba was found in the water supply, which caused the death of a 6-year-old child. Warmer water temperatures caused by climate change could increase the prevalence of such water-borne amoebas, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The combination of higher heat and heavier precipitation in the eastern half of Texas also damages underground water pipes by causing the ground around them to expand and contract more, Collins said. It's likely that Texans will continue to see more frequent interruptions in their water supply as the state warms, he said.

And the state's power grid can be strained during extreme heat when Texans turn up the air conditioning to stay cool. At the same time, higher temperatures make it more difficult for power plants to run as efficiently as they do during normal conditions, decreasing the power supply — and increasing the risk of blackouts.

“We will see more risk of outages due to increased demand," said Juliana Felkner, an assistant professor of architecture at the University of Texas whose research focused on sustainable development and design. “Power plants need water to run, so if there is a lack of water, this makes them less efficient and they generate less electricity."

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, the state's grid operator, included extreme calculations for heat and drought in its assessment of potential power supply conditions this summer, seeking to “broaden the debate" on making the grid more resilient. After a February winter storm knocked out power to millions of Texans for days, Texas Public Utility commissioners, who oversee the grid, questioned whether the grid could withstand more extreme weather as they looked to improve the grid's operations.

The environment, too, is damaged by persistently higher temperatures. Shaye Wolf, the climate science director for the Center for Biological Diversity, said more species' extinctions can be expected. Many species of lizards, for example, are going extinct in the U.S. and globally because when it gets too hot, they retreat to the shade and can't hunt for food. Each species plays an important role in the local ecosystem, Wolf said, which is important for the safety of humans, not just plants and animals.

“When you destroy the web of life, it not only makes for a lonelier planet, but a more dangerous planet," Wolf said.

Local extinctions, or the disappearance of a species to a specific area but not the globe, are already widespread due to climate change, a 2016 study by University of Arizona researchers found. Among almost 1,000 species surveyed, nearly half of them were locally extinct.

Texans can expect every aspect of public infrastructure to be damaged by the heat brought by climate change, said infrastructure expert Mikhail Chester, associate professor of engineering and the director of the Metis Center for Infrastructure and Sustainable Engineering at Arizona State University. While each individual effect may seem small — a boil water notice here, a broken pipe there — the total effect is a massive public challenge, he said.

“Climate change is slightly shifting everything: It's slightly breaking infrastructure, and it's pushing us beyond what we design things for," Chester said. “When you add all of that up, it's monumental."

Disclosure: Rice University, Texas 2036 and the University of Arizona have been financial supporters of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune's journalism. Find a complete list of them here.

Correction, Oct. 7, 2021: A previous version of the map in this story incorrectly labeled the temperature change in Texas counties between 1975 and 2020. It represents the average increase each decade, not the increase over the entire 45 year period.

This article originally appeared in The Texas Tribune at https://www.texastribune.org/2021/10/07/texas-climate-change-heat-water/.

The Texas Tribune is a member-supported, nonpartisan newsroom informing and engaging Texans on state politics and policy. Learn more at texastribune.org.

June 14, 2021

"Texas grid operator urges electricity conservation as many power generators are unexpectedly offline and temperatures rise" was first published by The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan media organization that informs Texans — and engages with them — about public policy, politics, government and statewide issues.

Sign up for The Brief, our daily newsletter that keeps readers up to speed on the most essential Texas news.

Texas' main power grid struggled to keep up with the demand for electricity Monday, prompting the operator to ask Texans to conserve power until Friday.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas said in a statement Monday that a significant number of unexpected power plant outages, combined with expected record use of electricity due to hot weather, has resulted in tight grid conditions. Approximately 12,000 megawatts of generation were offline Monday, or enough to power 2.4million homes on a hot summer day.

ERCOT officials said the power plant outages were unexpected — and could not provide details as to what could be causing them.

“I don't have any potential reasons [for the plant outages] that I can share at this time," said Warren Lasher, ERCOT senior director of systems planning, during a Monday call with media. “It is not consistent with fleet performance that we have seen over the last few summers."

The number of plants that were forced offline today is “very concerning" Lasher said.

“We operate the grid with the resources that we have available," he said. “It's the responsibility of the generators to make sure their plants are available when demand is high."

The conservation request comes at a time of heightened anxiety around electricity after the state's catastrophic February power outages left millions without power for days. Those outages, which were prompted by a severe winter storm, may have killed as many as 700 people, according to an analysis of mortality data by BuzzFeed News.

Of the plants offline, about 9,600 megawatts of power, or nearly 80% of the outages, are from thermal power sources, which in Texas are largely natural-gas-fired power plants. That's several times what ERCOT usually sees offline for thermal generation maintenance during a summer day. Typically, only about 3,600 megawatts of thermal generation are offline this time of year.

“This is unusual for this early in the summer season," said Woody Rickerson, ERCOT vice president of grid planning and operations, in a statement. He said the grid operator would conduct an analysis to determine why so many units are offline.

At this time, it “appears unlikely" that the ERCOT grid would need to implement outages, like it did in February, to reduce strain on the grid, Lasher said.

In April, ERCOT asked residents to cut back power use because of a high number of plants offline for maintenance, some due to repairs necessary from damage during the February winter storm.

Lasher said that ERCOT has completed 20 plant visits ahead of the summer peak season, and 11 more are scheduled for the next two weeks. Four of the plants that were inspected are currently on outage, Lasher said.

The grid operator estimates demand for electricity could exceed 73,000 megawatts on Monday. The previous record for June was 69,100 megawatts in 2018.

“[Electricity demand] is really driven by temperatures, and right now it is 99 degrees in Dallas, 97 degrees in Austin and 97 degrees in Houston," said Joshua Rhodes, research associate at the Webber Energy Group at the University of Texas at Austin. He said at those high temperatures, people tend to crank up their air conditioning, which strains the grid. At the same time, he said, power plants have already had a rough year given the damage during the February outages, which may be causing new complications.

Texans can reduce electricity use by setting the thermostat to 78 degrees or higher; turning off lights and pool pumps; avoiding use of large appliances such as ovens, washing machines and dryers; and turning off or unplugging unused electric appliances.

Power grids must keep supply and demand in balance at all times. When Texas' grid falls below its safety margin of excess supply, the grid operator starts taking additional precautions to avoid blackouts. The first precaution is to ask the public to cut back electricity usage.

Following criticism that the grid operator did not consider severe enough scenarios in its planning, ERCOT outlined the most extreme calculations for this summer that it has ever considered. ERCOT warned in its summer assessment of power resources that a severe heat wave or drought, combined with high demand for power, could put the grid in jeopardy. (Texas is expected to have a hotter and drier summer than normal this year, according to an April climate outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration).

During the recent legislative session, Texas lawmakers passed energy grid legislation that aimed to prevent electricity blackouts in response to the February crisis. Senate Bills 2 and 3 included a few key changes to the state's power grid that experts said will begin to address some issues, such as requiring power companies to upgrade plants to withstand more extreme weather and creating a statewide emergency alert system. However, it will likely take years before those changes are fully implemented.

The legislation also changes ERCOT's governing board to replace what lawmakers called “industry insiders" with appointees selected by a committee comprising selections by Gov. Greg Abbott, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and House Speaker Dade Phelan.

The state likely won't require companies to make weatherization upgrades until 2022 at the earliest.

Disclosure: The University of Texas at Austin has been a financial supporter of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune's journalism. Find a complete list of them here.

This article originally appeared in The Texas Tribune at https://www.texastribune.org/2021/06/14/texas-power-grid-conserve-ercot/.

The Texas Tribune is a member-supported, nonpartisan newsroom informing and engaging Texans on state politics and policy. Learn more at texastribune.org.

June 3, 2021

"Everyday Texans overlooked in state lawmakers' response to power outages during winter storm" was first published by The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan media organization that informs Texans — and engages with them — about public policy, politics, government and statewide issues.

Sign up for The Brief, our daily newsletter that keeps readers up to speed on the most essential Texas news.

The first day, Melissa Hutchins and her husband burned furniture to keep warm. Friends of theirs burned their children's toys. A neighbor's roof caved in.

When the Hutchins lost water because the pipes froze, they went to a hotel.

Three nights and four maxed out credit cards later, they returned to their Arlington condominium when power was restored to Texans after one of the deadliest and costliest disasters in state history.

“Texas is not prepared for weather like that," Hutchins said. “We're not equipped for that at all down here."

State lawmakers responded to February's deadly power outages during a winter storm with a few key changes to the state's power grid that experts said will begin to address some issues exposed by the storm — such as requiring power companies to upgrade plants to withstand more extreme weather and creating a statewide emergency alert system.

But they did not provide direct relief for everyday Texans, many of whom lost jobs or loved ones during the pandemic and then went through yet another emotionally and financially taxing crisis.

The storm caused the deaths of as many as 700 people, according to a Buzzfeed analysis. Insurance costs for property damage alone are about $18 billion, Reuters reported, citing Karen Clark & Co., a Boston consulting firm. The total economic damage to the state may be $86 billion to $129 billion, according to The Perryman Group, a Texas economic firm.

Lawmakers approved a bill that will likely increase most Texans' electricity bills by at least a few dollars each month for possibly the next two decades to bail out the state's utility and electricity companies. Patricia Zavala, senior policy analyst at Jolt, a Latino progressive advocacy group in Texas, said even a small increase in living costs can put Texans who are “teetering on the edge" into financial jeopardy.

And Doug Lewin, an Austin-based energy and climate consultant, said that while the Legislature took positive steps in requiring power companies to prepare for future storms, nothing was done to provide direct assistance to people harmed by the power crisis or to help Texans reduce electricity use to take pressure off the grid during extreme weather.

He and others said the changes this session were not the sort of sweeping reforms necessary to completely avoid another power grid catastrophe.

“There was really no focus at all to address ... the millions of Texans struggling to pay their electric bills," Lewin said during a Friday press conference with Texas environmental advocates. “There's two sides of the equation: supply and demand. The Legislature has stayed almost entirely focused on supply, and almost completely neglected the demand side."

Lawmakers made the case in the final minutes of the legislative session that overhauling the board that oversees the power grid will provide the structural change necessary to prevent another grid-related disaster.

“I always get questions, 'What have y'all done to fix the disaster that we saw in February?'" state Sen. Lois Kolkhorst, R-Brenham, said before the Senate passed Senate Bill 2, which changes the makeup of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas' board of directors. “It starts with leadership, and it starts with the structure [of people who] make the hard calls."

Still, both Republican and Democratic lawmakers acknowledged that they did not do enough this session to aid the people — like the Hutchins and their neighbors — who struggled financially after the winter storm caused medical emergencies, damaged property, spoiled food and sent many Texans' utility bills soaring.

Melissa Hutchins, 37, estimates that the hotel, food, repairs to their condo and lost work cost them $5,000. Her husband, a manager at a food and beverage manufacturer, made an early withdrawal on his retirement account so they could repair broken plumbing to restore their water and fix their dishwasher. All of this, she said, after a year in which her husband was sick with COVID-19 and missed a month of work.

“It was just crazy," Hutchins said. “It's one thing after another. Like water, we can't live without water. We have to have electricity."

Lawmakers said the measure they passed to give utilities and electricity companies access to billions of dollars in bonds and loans will prevent a larger financial crisis in the state in the aftermath of the storm. Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick has called for additional legislation that would provide direct financial relief to consumers.

“The next time, for this Lieutenant Governor, that we're going to spend billions of dollars concerning the storm, it's going to be to help the people of Texas and the ratepayers, or I won't call that bill up," Patrick said. “We have to help the people of Texas and their electric bills."

Gov. Greg Abbott is expected to call lawmakers back for a special session later this year to revive certain bills that died during the regular session; in an interview with The Texas Tribune on Tuesday, Abbott said he would likely support a proposal to aid consumers, but he hasn't announced whether he would add the issue to lawmakers' plates in a special session.

“Put me on the side of consumers who suffered through this storm," Abbott said.

Little relief for everyday Texans

Senate Bills 2 and 3, the two major power grid bills that lawmakers passed on Sunday and sent to Abbott, focus on ERCOT's board and weatherizing the power plants that serve the electrical grid.

Senate Bill 2 reduces the number of ERCOT board members from 16 to 11 and requires that instead of what lawmakers called “industry insiders" appointing the board, Abbott, Patrick and House Speaker Dade Phelan will appoint a committee to make ERCOT board selections.

Senate Bill 3 requires power companies and some natural gas companies to make upgrades so their facilities can withstand extreme weather and requires regulators to create an emergency alert system, similar to an Amber alert, for power outages and inclement weather.

The Senate did not approve a $2 billion plan, approved by the House, to help companies pay for weatherization. So companies alone will pay the costs to retroactively equip their power plants to withstand extreme weather.

The state likely won't require companies to make weatherization upgrades until 2022 at the earliest.

Another package of bills sent to the governor would increase rates on Texans' power bills for likely the next two decades to cover at least $7 billion of gas utilities', electric cooperatives' and electric companies' debt from the storm.

Many companies, particularly rural electric cooperatives, were financially wrecked after the winter storm due to state electricity regulators' decision to set power prices at the maximum rate of $9,000 per megawatt-hour and keep them there for an additional 32 hours after power began to return. Natural gas fuel prices also spiked during the storm; some gas utility companies said their customers' bills would increase several times the normal amount if the companies had to finance their storm-related debt without state help.

If Abbott signs the bills into law, the legislation will prevent customers from having to pay huge bills from the storm by allowing companies to seek billions of dollars in state-approved bonds backed by the new charges on customers' bills. The state's plan will help the companies get cheaper, longer-term loans.

Some electric companies also owe massive debts to ERCOT; under House Bill 4492, ERCOT will receive $800 million from the state's Economic Stabilization Fund, known as the rainy day fund, to pay off those debts — an effort to prevent most retail electric providers from passing huge bills on to their customers and to also reimburse power generation companies.

Still, some are concerned that the state's solution will add yet another cost to already-struggling consumers. Aaron Gonzales, 27, a graduate student at the University of Texas and a volunteer for Jolt Action, said the rising cost of living has delayed his plans to purchase a home. Even a small increase on his utility bill chips away at that dream, he said.

“It's a straw that gets put on the camel's back, and we have to ask ourselves, how many before it breaks?" he said. “A lot of people in my family were laid off this year or on reduced wages. At a time when we don't have jobs or money, you're asking us to pay even more."

The Texas Senate added an amendment in the final week of the session to House Bill 4492 that would have allowed the state comptroller to provide one-time bill payment assistance grants of $350 to residential customers. That measure was stripped from the bill in the House, and Patrick and some senators called for the proposal to be brought back up during a special session.

“It is only fair and right," said Sen. Roland Gutierrez, D-San Antonio. “People froze in their homes. A $350 credit is the least we can do."

The Senate stripped away House proposals to help electric customers, too. An amendment to Senate Bill 3 by Rep. Erin Zwiener, D-Driftwood, would have created a grant program for projects that add backup power generation to water treatment plants, local electric utilities, hospitals, nursing homes and dialysis centers. The amendment was taken out during the two chambers' negotiations.

“I don't know if we got any good consumer wins, which is disappointing to think about," Zwiener said of the session.

What the Legislature didn't do

Although lawmakers required electricity generators to weatherize against extreme weather, they took a more limited approach to requiring gas fuel facilities to weatherize — Senate Bill 3 requires only gas facilities that are deemed "critical" by regulators to make changes.

Dozens of natural gas companies failed to do the paperwork that would keep their facilities powered during an emergency, so utilities — under orders from ERCOT to shut down parts of the grid as demand surged — cut their electricity at the very moment that power plants most needed fuel during the storm. Some power plants were unable to operate during the storm due to natural gas fuel shortages.

Lawmakers did not set deadlines for gas companies to weatherize their equipment, which critics argue will allow companies to delay the upgrades.

Lawmakers also stopped short of ordering an energy market overhaul; some proposals would have fundamentally changed the state's deregulated market structure, which relies on supply and demand to set power prices, but lawmakers didn't bite.

And they rejected a pitch by billionaire Warren Buffett's company, Berkshire Hathaway, to spend $8.3 billion for 10 new natural gas power plants across the state for emergency use only, paid for by electricity customers. Many Texas companies did not support the plan, and lawmakers didn't even support studying the idea.

Lawmakers also didn't pass legislation that would help Texans pay to better insulate their homes and reduce their electricity usage, which could both lower power bills and reduce demand on the grid.

“[Texas] has been kind of reluctant to do it," said Pat Wood III, former Public Utility Commission of Texas chair, of weatherizing homes. “And I don't know why."

Those ideas didn't gain traction in the Republican-dominated Legislature, but Zwiener said she's optimistic that such proposals could later be funded by a federal infrastructure package, which President Joe Biden has pushed hard during his first months in office.

“I'm hopeful that when we return in the fall we will be able to leverage some of that for homeowners to weatherize," Zwiener said. “It's energy efficiency, but it's also about survivability. If you live in a house with decent insulation, your house is going to stay warmer or cooler for a much longer period of time."

What's next for the power grid

The upgrades to the grid that lawmakers approved last month won't eliminate the chance of blackouts in Texas. If the state experiences a severe heat wave or drought combined with high demand for power, outages are a possibility, according to recent ERCOT assessments.

ERCOT included three extreme scenarios in a forecast of the state's power resources for the summer — the most extreme calculations ERCOT has ever considered for its regular seasonal assessment. Each scenario would leave the grid short a significant amount of power, which would trigger power outages.

The grid operator had previously avoided warning the public about such extreme possibilities because of their low likelihood of happening. But after February's storm, ERCOT is changing tactics.

ERCOT interim President Brad Jones will also have to build working relationships with an entirely new board of directors, picked by a committee appointed by the state's top politicians.

Meanwhile, ERCOT has to convince the public that its new regime can be trusted to keep the grid from collapsing again.

“[They are] starting over because there's all these people who got introduced to the grid in February — and not in a good way," said Caitlin Smith, an Austin energy policy adviser. “So, we're starting their relationship with ERCOT from a really traumatic event and going from there."

Patrick Svitek contributed to this report.

This article originally appeared in The Texas Tribune at https://www.texastribune.org/2021/06/03/texas-electricity-bills-winter-storm-legislature/.

The Texas Tribune is a member-supported, nonpartisan newsroom informing and engaging Texans on state politics and policy. Learn more at texastribune.org.

"Texas House gives early approval to bill that would punish Wall Street for fossil fuel disinvestments" was first published by The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan media organization that informs Texans — and engages with them — about public policy, politics, government and statewide issues.

Sign up for The Brief, our daily newsletter that keeps readers up to speed on the most essential Texas news.

The Texas House on Monday gave preliminary approval to a bill that would direct state investment funds to divest from companies that cut ties with fossil fuel companies.

Senate Bill 13 was approved on second reading in the House, and needs only a third reading before it is sent to Gov. Greg Abbott's desk.

The legislation would require state entities — including state pension funds and Texas' massive K-12 school endowment — to divest from companies that refuse to invest in or do business with fossil fuel-based energy companies.

It's a response to the sentiment on Wall Street that oil and gas companies are contributing to climate change — and may not be a good investment in the midst of an energy transition. The bill seeks to divest the state's massive investment funds from firms that “boycott" fossil fuel companies.

“Oil and gas is the lifeblood of the Texas economy," state Rep. Phil King, R-Weatherford, said on the House floor before the bill was approved in a 92-51 vote. “In the world of capital, there's a movement to deny funds to businesses that will not sign on to extreme anti-fossil fuel policy."

Pressure is increasing on Wall Street for companies and investment funds to reduce financial support for oil and gas companies due to the outsized impact the industry has on carbon emissions that contribute to climate change. Last year, Larry Fink, founder and chief executive of BlackRock, one of the world's largest investment companies, wrote to shareholders that the firm would make climate change “a defining factor" in its investment strategy.

King said he spoke to an engineer in the energy industry who said the “virtue signaling" by BlackRock has changed capital availability to oil companies.

Democrats who voted no on the legislation called the bill anti-free speech, and argued that Texas should pursue legislation that rewards industries important to Texas, rather than punishing others.

“We say we want to protect people's ability to speak their mind, but once again, we have another bill that does the opposite," said state Rep. Gene Wu, D-Houston. “We punish companies for their thoughts and internal policies, whether they carry them out or not. We punish thought. We punish speech."

Texas state funds identified in the bill include the $46 billion Texas Permanent School Fund, the largest such K-12 fund in the U.S; the Teacher Retirement System of Texas, which manages nearly $165 billion in investments; and the Employees Retirement System of Texas and Texas Municipal Retirement System of Texas, which each manage $31 billion.

An amendment added to the bill on the House floor clarified that the state can do what is in the best interest of the fiduciary duty of the government.

This article originally appeared in The Texas Tribune at https://www.texastribune.org/2021/05/03/texas-house-fossil-fuel-oil-divest/.

The Texas Tribune is a member-supported, nonpartisan newsroom informing and engaging Texans on state politics and policy. Learn more at texastribune.org.

"Severe weather this summer could cause another Texas power crisis" was first published by The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan media organization that informs Texans — and engages with them — about public policy, politics, government and statewide issues.

Electricity outages in Texas could occur again this summer — just a few months after the devastating winter storm that left millions of Texans without power for days — if the state experiences a severe heat wave or drought combined with high demand for power, according to recent assessments by the state's grid operator.

Experts and company executives are warning that the power grid that covers most of the state is at risk of another crisis this summer, when demand for electricity typically peaks as homes and businesses crank up air conditioning to ride out the Texas heat. Texas is likely to see a hotter and drier summer than normal this year, according to an April climate outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and 2021 is very likely to rank among the 10 warmest years on record globally.

“This summer, I am as worried right now [about the grid] as I was coming into this winter," said Curt Morgan, CEO of Vistra Corp., an Irving-based power company. “Sounds like I'm the boy that cries wolf, but I'm not. I've seen this stuff repeat itself. We can have the same event happen if we don't fix this."

As state lawmakers continue debating how to improve the grid after February's storm nearly caused its collapse, on Tuesday Texans were asked to conserve electricity because the supply of power could barely keep up with demand. A significant chunk of the grid's power plants were offline due to maintenance this week, some a result of damage from the winter storm.

The warning triggered a torrent of outrage from residents and political leaders across the state who questioned why the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which manages the grid, allowed it to come so close to emergency conditions on a relatively mild spring day. “I appreciate the increased effort toward transparency, but wow this is nervewracking to see in April," state Rep. Erin Zwiener, D-Driftwood, tweeted Tuesday.

Heading into the summer, ERCOT included three extreme scenarios in a preliminary assessment of the state's power resources for the summer — the most extreme calculations ERCOT has ever considered for the seasonal assessment. Each scenario would leave the grid short a significant amount of power, which would trigger outages to residents:

• In the first scenario, a drought similar to what the state saw in 2011, combined with low winds, several natural gas plants offline and an increase in economic activity as the pandemic eases, would leave the power grid short 3,600 megawatts, or enough to power 720,000 homes.

• Add low solar power generation to the first projection (say it's a cloudy day), and the grid would be short 7,500 megawatts, or enough to power 1.5 million homes.

• In the most extreme scenario ERCOT considered, a severe heat wave across the entire state combined with outages for every major power source would leave the grid short 14,000 megawatts, or enough to power 2.8 million homes.

Power grids must keep supply and demand in balance at all times. When Texas' grid falls below its safety margin of 2,300 megawatts in excess supply, the grid operator starts taking additional precautions, like what happened on Tuesday, to avoid blackouts.

Pete Warnken, ERCOT's manager of resource adequacy, told reporters near the end of March that the grid operator included the extreme scenarios to “broaden the debate on how to make the grid more resilient." Still, he said ERCOT expects sufficient power reserves, “assuming normal conditions" this summer.

While the extreme scenarios have a very low chance of actually occurring, an unlikely and severe event happened in February, when extreme cold knocked out several different sources of power at once just as the cold triggered surging demand for power and natural gas fuel shortages. More than 4.8 million customers lost power and at least 111 people died during the storm.

A final summer assessment will be published May 6.

“A catastrophic event like the winter storm could not be predicted several months in advance," Warnken said, adding that the preliminary report isn't intended to forecast unprecedented events.

Rather, Warnken said the scenarios should help inform state leaders and the public of what's possible — “the idea is the planners and stakeholders are aware that there's a possibility something like that could happen," he said. “These have a much lower probability of occurring than the traditional grid scenarios."

Hot, dry summer

John Nielsen-Gammon, the Texas State Climatologist and director of the Texas Center for Climate Studies, said that this summer in Texas is shaping up to be hot and dry. While it's still early, he said temperatures this summer will depend on how much rain the state gets between now and June. Parts of the state — South Texas to far West Texas — have been in drought conditions for more than a year, he said.

“Temperatures during the summer depend a lot on how much rain there has been over the preceding several months," he said. “It's been fairly dry this past fall and winter and spring so far."

When heat waves hit large swaths of the state, that puts stress on the grid.

“In 2011, for example, most of the summer was a heat wave," Nielsen-Gammon said. That was the driest year on record in Texas, and what ERCOT based its extreme scenarios on this year. That summer, ERCOT took emergency precautions, but widespread outages did not occur.

“We were in an extreme drought with little moisture available [in 2011]," Nielsen-Gammon said. “Usually, if you have a heat wave, it's going to affect at least half the state if not most of it."

ERCOT is “carefully looking at" the potential for big heat waves and drought this year, Warnken said.

A large area of Texas, and much of the Western U.S., will likely have above average temperatures this summer, according to an April analysis by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Credit: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Climate change has made summer droughts hotter and longer than they used to be in the southwest, according to a 2019 study authored by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scientists. The study found that droughts occurring in today's warmer climate cause hotter temperatures than the same drought decades ago — the low soil moisture combined with higher temperatures produce stronger heat waves.

A large area of Texas will likely have above average temperatures this summer, according to an April 15 NOAA analysis.

Daniel Cohan, an associate professor of civil and environmental engineering at Rice University, is concerned about the power grid's performance this summer.

“If ERCOT is struggling to keep the lights on this week, that doesn't bode well for summer," Cohan said. “Certainly with climate change, it's possible we'll hit new records for heat waves."

And despite state lawmakers' advances on legislation aimed to address February's outages, Cohan said there is little the Legislature can do to better prepare the state's energy infrastructure for this summer. “It's too late to do a whole lot for this summer," he said.

Texas' susceptibility to blackouts has long been a concern for the North American Electric Reliability Corp., which has some authority to regulate power plants and oversee grid operators in the U.S.

“From my perspective, [Texas] doesn't have as much cushion as even ERCOT's math says that they should," said James Robb, its CEO and president.

Still, Michelle Michot Foss, a fellow in energy at Rice University's Baker Institute, said Texas' grid is better prepared for summer heat than extreme cold, and it's not unusual for the grid to creep close to its capacity in the hottest months.

“We deal with [heat] more often," she said. During the summer, she said, “the energy systems are better prepared."

Disclosure: Rice University has been a financial supporter of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune's journalism. Find a complete list of them here.

This article originally appeared in The Texas Tribune at https://www.texastribune.org/2021/04/15/texas-ercot-blackouts-summer-climate/.

The Texas Tribune is a member-supported, nonpartisan newsroom informing and engaging Texans on state politics and policy. Learn more at texastribune.org.

This article originally appeared in The Texas Tribune at https://www.texastribune.org/2021/03/25/warren-buffett-texas-power-plants/.

The Texas Tribune is a member-supported, nonpartisan newsroom informing and engaging Texans on state politics and policy. Learn more at texastribune.org.

This article originally appeared in The Texas Tribune at https://www.texastribune.org/2021/03/18/texas-winter-storm-blackouts-paperwork/.

The Texas Tribune is a member-supported, nonpartisan newsroom informing and engaging Texans on state politics and policy. Learn more at texastribune.org.

This article originally appeared in The Texas Tribune at https://www.texastribune.org/2021/03/02/ercot-texas-bill-magness/.

The Texas Tribune is a member-supported, nonpartisan newsroom informing and engaging Texans on state politics and policy. Learn more at texastribune.org.

Five board members of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas — the entity that manages and operates the electricity grid that covers much of Texas — will resign on Wednesday, according to a notice to the Public Utility Commission. A sixth has withdrawn his application to the board.

All six live outside of Texas.

Sally Talberg, board chair; Peter Cramton, vice chair; Terry Bulger, finance and audit chair; and Raymond Hepper, human resources and governance committee chair, occupy the "unaffiliated" director positions on the board, which mean they must remain independent of any business ERCOT oversees. Their resignations will be effective at the end of the board's Wednesday meeting.

In addition, Vanessa Anesetti-Parra, the market segment director for the independent retail electric provider market segment, will also resign her position as a board member. Craig Ivey, who was slated to fill a vacant unaffiliated director position, withdrew his application.

ERCOT board members had come under fire last week when it was reported that some did not reside in the state. ERCOT officials, during a press conference last week, said it had temporarily removed personal information about the directors from its website because they were experiencing harassment.

The board has been criticized for last week's mass power outage during a winter storm that has claimed the lives of dozens of Texans. More than 4.5 million customers were without power at one point last week.

Gov. Greg Abbott had called on ERCOT board members to resign in the aftermath of the crisis and said in a statement Tuesday that he welcomes their resignations, promising to investigate the grid operator."I welcome the resignations," Abbott said.

"The lack of preparedness and transparency at ERCOT is unacceptable. We will ensure that the disastrous events of last week are never repeated."

ERCOT, a nonprofit, is governed by a board of directors, but overseen by the Public Utility Commission. Fifteen members serve on the ERCOT board, including the five unaffiliated director positions. The vacancies will not immediately be filled.

In order for ERCOT to maintain its certification as an independent organization, the board, which should consist of 16 members, must include five directors who are completely unaffiliated with "any market segment." Ivey would have been the fifth unaffiliated member.

"The board chairman, board vice chairman and both committee chairman leadership roles will be vacant," according to the notice submitted by attorneys representing ERCOT.

Lawsuits have already been filed against ERCOT in response to last week's crisis. It's unclear whether ERCOT, which falls under the PUC's jurisdiction, can be held liable by such suits: The Texas Supreme Court is expected to decide this year whether ERCOT is entitled to sovereign immunity, a legal principle that protects government agencies from lawsuits, after hearing another case that raised the question last year.

The board members were not all immediately available for comment or referred reporters to their resignation letters. In a joint letter to the rest of the board, the four unaffiliated directors cited the public concern that board members did not live in the state as the reason for their resignation. Ivey also cited not wanting to become a "distraction" from the more important response to the crisis in his letter.

"To allow state leaders a free hand with future direction and to eliminate distractions, we are resigning from the board," Talberg, Cramton, Bulger and Hepper wrote in the resignation letter.

The board directors wrote that before they resign, they will launch the review of the power crisis.

"Our hearts go out to all Texans who have had to go without electricity, heat, and water during the frigid temperatures and continue to face the tragic consequences of this emergency," they wrote. "We want what is best for ERCOT and for Texas."

Talberg, a former state utility regulator who served on the Michigan Public Utility Commission from 2013 to 2020, lives in Michigan. Talberg has sat on various state, regional and national boards and committees involving electricity, natural gas, oil, infrastructure and telecommunications issues. Cramton, a professor of economics at the University of Cologne and the University of Maryland, lives in Germany. Cramton has focused his research on electricity and financial markets. He has advised numerous governments and has been on the ERCOT board since 2015.

Bulger worked in the banking sector for 35 years, including various positions with ABN AMRO Bank in Canada, Europe and the U.S., and lives in Wheaton, Illinois. Hepper, a former litigator for the U.S. Department of Justice, retired in 2018 from working for the grid operator that manages the six-state New England electric system and wholesale markets.

Ivey, whose appointment was approved by ERCOT's members but was pending final approval from the PUC, is retired from more than three decades of experience in the utilities industry. He resides in Florida, according to an ERCOT announcement about his candidacy to the board. Most recently, he was the president of Consolidated Edison Co. of New York Inc., a subsidiary of Consolidated Edison Inc.

Anesetti-Parra oversees Just Energy's North American residential and commercial regulatory affairs and compliance division and has two decades of experience in the retail energy sector.

ERCOT representatives did not return calls seeking comment, but in a statement it said: "We look forward to working with the Texas Legislature, and we thank the outgoing Board Members for their service."

"Texas was "seconds and minutes" away from catastrophic monthslong blackouts, officials say" was first published by The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan media organization that informs Texans — and engages with them — about public policy, politics, government and statewide issues.

This article originally appeared in The Texas Tribune at https://www.texastribune.org/2021/02/18/texas-power-outages-ercot/.

The Texas Tribune is a member-supported, nonpartisan newsroom informing and engaging Texans on state politics and policy. Learn more at texastribune.org.

By Erin Douglas, Kate McGee and Jolie McCullough, The Texas Tribune

Feb. 17, 2021

This article originally appeared in The Texas Tribune at https://www.texastribune.org/2021/02/17/texas-power-grid-failures/.

The Texas Tribune is a member-supported, nonpartisan newsroom informing and engaging Texans on state politics and policy. Learn more at texastribune.org.

This article originally appeared in The Texas Tribune at https://www.texastribune.org/2021/02/16/texas-wind-turbines-frozen/.

The Texas Tribune is a member-supported, nonpartisan newsroom informing and engaging Texans on state politics and policy. Learn more at texastribune.org.