As of Tuesday evening, Democrats appear to have taken back the U.S. Senate after Republicans lost in South Carolina, Texas, Kansas and Iowa. It was the blue tsunami that Democrats had hoped to see on Election Night.
The Senate map was far less settled going into Election Day than it was in the House, but Democrats came in with a credible path to control. At a minimum, there was a high likelihood that Democrats could make substantial gains, even in red states. Democrats needed a net gain of four Republican-held seats because a 50-50 chamber would leave Republican Vice President JD Vance with the tie-breaking vote.
So, the most likely outcome would be a narrowing, not a clean Democratic sweep or a Republican hold.
The top states to watch are Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas, with South Carolina a long shot. While Darline Graham, sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham (D-S.C.), was handpicked by President Donald Trump, her missteps put her at dead even with Democrat Dr. Annie Andrews in the final days of the campaign.
The Cook Political Report rated seven of those contests as toss-ups and viewed Democrats as slight favorites overall, while other forecasters put Democratic control odds in the low-to-mid 60s. Still, low-to-mid 60s likely looked good for Democrats.
Democrats appeared solid in Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, Maine and Ohio, while Iowa, Texas and South Carolina remained distant possibilities. Unless there was an outright Democratic blowout, the final balance of power could be announced Wednesday afternoon or later if Alaska's vote was close.
Democrats’ best opportunities have been in states where Republican incumbents or nominees were poor candidates, ran terrible campaigns or were simply weighed down by President Donald Trump's drag on the GOP ticket.
Going into Election Day, Sherrod Brown was leading in Ohio, Adam Hamilton was competitive and running even in Kansas, Josh Turek was within the margin of error in Iowa, and Dan Osborn has kept Nebraska closer than Republicans expected. In each case, Democrats are benefiting from voter anger over the economy, immigration enforcement and President Trump’s second-term agenda.
Still, Democrats have run their races on the defensive. They had to hold Michigan, Georgia, New Hampshire and Minnesota, where retirements and competitive races created openings for Republicans. Michigan remained especially important: if Abdul El-Sayed could hold his narrow lead over Mike Rogers, Democrats could keep a critical seat. But if he loses it, their path to 51 seats becomes dramatically harder. Georgia and Minnesota appeared to be solid.
Final polls in New Hampshire on Oct. 28, showed Democratic U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas is slightly ahead of Republican former U.S. Sen. John E. Sununu, 48 percent to 41 percent, while 4 percent of respondents support Constitution Party candidate Edmond LaPlante and 7 percent remained undecided.
Other Democrats like Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska), Rep. James Talarico (D-Texas) and Josh Turek (D-Iowa) were slightly ahead but within the margin of error. That left those candidates down to Election Day turnout. If Democrats showed up, they could win it and make history.
