On Tuesday, as the nation went to the polls for midterm Election Day, the hosts at Fox News found themselves “caught off-guard” by an announcement President Donald Trump made on their network earlier in the morning. As hosts Bret Baier and Stuart Varney noted, it appeared to be a desperate last-minute bid to stave off the GOP’s widely forecasted electoral doom.
“I was watching Fox & Friends this morning on Fox,” noted Varney. “President Trump was on, and he said that he was going to end all aid to Israel by the end of this year. That came as a shock to me. I wondered why he was doing it. Have you any explanation?” Baier was equally stunned, admitting, “I don't yet, and I thought it was shocking too. Why today, on Election Day, to say that? It wasn't prompted. There wasn't a question about it. So it came out.”
Trump had called into the Fox show a couple of hours earlier, during which he claimed to have made a deal with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in which the U.S. would end $4 billion in funding to Israel after the end of this year. The president claimed that he made the deal “months ago,” despite there having been no talk by the administration of such an arrangement. As Baier explained, there has been a focus on the question of funding Israel in some midterm races, including in Michigan. “Was it on his mind for that?” wondered Baier, admitting, “Today's mention of that did catch us off guard.” Varney chimed in, agreeing, “It was quite a day to say it. I wonder if he’s trying to affect the vote?”
The Fox hosts also discussed whether the election is “a referendum on Trump.” According to Baier, “A lot of midterms are, and this president has specifically put his name [on it], said to everybody… pretend I'm on the ballot, so thereby making it a referendum.” In Baier’s estimation, the Iran war, its resulting high prices and the generally negative economic sentiments shared by Americans will be the determining factors for most voters. This prompted Varney to ask whether voters “like” Trump. “His base loves him,” said Baier. “Independents and Democrats… it's upside down if you look at the approval ratings."
A poll released the previous day showed that Trump’s approval rating sits near a record low of 32 percent, and blowback from his unpopular administration has given the Democrats an almost unheard-of 8-point lead on a generic congressional ballot. It also revealed that 50 percent of independents see their vote in congressional elections as a vote against Trump, compared with 13 percent who said it was a vote for Trump. Just under 80 percent of voters said the rising cost of living was very important or the most important issue driving their vote, and when asked which party was better on the issue, voters in the poll picked Democrats over Republicans, 43 percent to 32 percent.
As a result, it is widely forecasted that the GOP will take major losses, potentially even losing its majority in the Senate. According to Baier, the South Carolina Senate race pitting Sen. Darline Graham (R-SC) against Democrat Amy Andrews – which begins posting results at 8 pm EST – will offer an early sign of how the rest of the elections will go. In Baier’s estimation, “If it's really close in the first ballots that we get in, it could be a long night for Republicans as they try to hold on to the Senate.”
