georgia elections

Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) is leaving office after 11 years and notable viral missteps in her final years in office. Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek and GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson were locked in a tough race, with each swapping the lead in the polls several times in the past six months.

After Tuesday's election, however, Decision Desk HQ has called Josh Turek the winner of the Senate seat.

October polling has largely favored Hinson, with only one poll favoring Turek. Democrats had a credible opportunity to flip a Republican seat, but neither candidate has established a clear advantage. Emerson found Hinson falling from 50 percent in September to 47 percent in October, while Turek remained at 45 percent. Even among the public polling, most of the leads either candidate had were within the margin of error. The Cook Political Report rates the race a toss-up.

The race came down to turnout. If the enthusiasm gap was large enough, it meant Turek could eke out a win. His only certainty was enough crossover support from Republican moderates and independent voters. Whereas all Hinson needed was for President Donald Trump's voters to come to the polls again in 2026 the way they did in 2024.

Locally, the state also had an open governors seat and two competitive House districts that could flip from Republican to Democrat. It meant that Democratic candidates have all stayed on the same message, hammering the airwaves about the failed war with Iran, rising gas prices and the affordability crisis caused by President Donald Trump's trade war.

Iowa farmers, in particular, have taken issue with the trade war, but fuel prices for equipment have risen sharply, making it increasingly difficult for farmers to break even. Still, Hinson remains popular for some of her policies, and the Iowa Farm Bureau and the Iowa Corn Growers Association endorsed her, while the Iowa Farmers Union endorsed Turek.

Turek said his own party has forgotten farmers in the past. It became a point he has used to build a hearing among voters who may distrust national Democrats. Despite longtime loyalties to republicans, farm distress made some Iowa agricultural voters more persuadable, and Turek aggressively courted them.

The most revealing thing about this race is that both major candidates tried to sell voters on their independence, but from opposite directions. Hinson said that she hoped voters could see her as more than a Trump ally. Turek said that he wanted voters to see him as more than a national Democrat.

Things got so bad for Republicans in Kansas that sources close to President Donald Trump told reporters Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kansas) was to blame if he lost to his Democratic challenger, Adam Hamilton.

On Tuesday, the Sunflower State's Senate seat went to Hamilton, according to NBC News.

Kansas hasn't elected a Democratic Senator in 94 years, since 1932, which came during Franklin D. Roosevelt’s national Democratic wave. However, Kansas frequently elects Democrats to lead the governor's office, leaving political analysts wondering if this was the year for Kansans to choose a pastor over a politician.

Marshall had a tough hill to climb after he was exposed for owning a large home in Florida, where he spent the majority of his time. The small home that he kept in Kansas was seen as more of a hunting lodge than a home, locals in Marshall's hometown alleged when speaking to the Kansas City Star a week before the election.

Then the New York Times published an expose on Marshall, revealing that he sued more than 700 patients over unpaid medical bills during roughly two decades. The debts ranged from $101 to several thousand dollars, and about half the cases were filed in Marshall’s own name while the other half were filed by Heartland Regional OBGYN, his practice.

When President Donald Trump campaigned for Marshall, he falsely told voters that Marshall was legally obligated to take the patients to court.

The major issue became that Marshall's patients’ contracts commonly carried an 18 percent annual interest rate on unpaid balances. The new class-action lawsuit alleges that it exceeded Kansas’s 15 percent statutory cap, making the charges unlawful “usury.”

Marshall had one of his patients arrested three times for her unpaid bill.

His story became a stark contrast to Rev. Adam Hamilton, a United Methodist minister in the suburbs of Kansas City. He was simply more well liked than someone seen as a mean, wealthy doctor getting rich on the backs of people who couldn't pay their medical bills because of high costs.

In Emerson’s October poll, Hamilton had a 41 percent favorable / 30 percent unfavorable rating, while Marshall was at 41 percent favorable / 48 percent unfavorable. That means Hamilton was up 11 points, while Marshall was down 7 points.

It became clear that Marshall was in trouble over the summer when the two men appeared at the Kansas State Fair, where they took questions from the audience. The audience booed and chastised Marshall, drawing national attention.

By contrast, Hamilton has used his faith to talk about the common good, helping one's neighbor and loving the "stranger," a stark contrast to the anti-immigration language coming out of Trump and the GOP. The October Emerson poll also showed that Hamilton's message sounded more nonpartisan, capturing independent voters by a 2-to-1 margin.

Given that President Donald Trump is the first Floridian to ever serve as America's most powerful leader, one would expect Florida Republicans to perform well in the 2026 midterm elections. On Tuesday night, when it came to the two key races — electing Rep. Byron Donalds as governor and keeping Sen. Ashley Moody in her seat — Florida Republicans achieved their goals.

Yet despite this achievement, they are still freaking out.

"Senior Republicans think they're close to hitting a point where the House will be out of reach, with key losses in the Sunshine State piling up," reported Politico's Meredith Lee Hill, Andrew Howard, Alec Hernandez, Sophia Cai and Aaron Pellish on Tuesday. "The only question now is how many seats they lose the majority by at this point."

They added, "That includes districts they redrew to benefit themselves and what looks like a bloodbath with Hispanic voters. Republican incumbents in Florida who weren't even on their party's radar are in trouble. Others like Rep. Anna Paulina Luna barely made it to the finish line in a district Trump won by double digits."

The Politico reporters then quoted Republican strategists, with one saying that “Florida is bad. Real bad." and another arguing that "I didn't have [Rep. Mario Díaz-Balart] in a knife fight on my list."

Still another commented, "A socialist is on track to win Miami-Dade County, where most of the voters fled literal socialism and still refused to vote for Republicans. If that doesn't tell you how big of a colossal f - - - up the first two years of Trump 2.0 was I don't know."

Yet another said, “It’s a ruby-red state. If we have problems there, we have real issues.”

Additionally, the South in general was a terrible night for the Republican Party under Trump. In Texas, Democratic candidate State Rep. James Talarico defeated State Attorney General Ken Paxton in a race that many observers believe would have gone to incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) if Trump hadn't endorsed Paxton. In South Carolina, Democratic candidate Dr. Annie Andrews defeated Sen. Darline Graham Norton in a seat that had until recently been occupied by Graham's late brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham. Even though establishment Republicans wanted Rep. Ralph Norman, Trump preferred Graham's little sister, and his endorsement helped Graham win her primary only to lose in the general election.

Democrats also won in the South even when Trump did not play a key role in who the Republicans nominated. In Georgia, Democratic candidate former Atlanta mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms defeated Republican candidate billionaire healthcare executive Rick Jackson in a race in which Bottoms capitalized on high Black female turnout. Bottoms is now the first Black woman to ever serve as governor of a US state.

Vivek Ramaswamy wasn't doing well before he began airing an infamous ad from the mother of his opponent, who protected a child abuser. After the ad, and his subsequent doubling down with $4 million, his chances were slim.

As of Tuesday night, NBC has called the Ohio governor's race for Democrat Amy Acton.

Ramaswamy's polling showed him behind over the summer, but the New York Times polling aggregator shows he was within the margin of error. As the election drew near, Marist University's poll showed Acton was seven points ahead.

Then came the infamous ad. Acton's estranged mother appeared in a commercial attacking her daughter as a liar. Behind that attack were decades of accusations that Acton's mother protected her husband over her daughter when her stepfather began molesting her at age 9. By 12, Acton and her brother, Philip Stearns, were taken away from their mother and the stepfather was charged. He quickly fled the state and was never caught, tried or jailed.

Acton's brother has spoken out about that time in their lives and how his loving sister protected him as much as she could.

"It's not surprising that Vivek Ramaswamy has stooped to such a despicable low as to attempt to turn the sexual abuse Amy endured at 12 years old from our birth mother's husband into a political talking point," Stearns said in a statement the campaign provided.

"My team, everyone's been sharing documents from that time. My brother and I experienced extreme abuse and neglect over a period of many years, not just at the hands of her husband, but also at her," Acton said.

After the ad scandal broke, Ramaswamy’s odds crashed to a new low, according to prediction market Kalshi. Two weeks before the election, Acton hit a new high with a 76 percent chance of winning the race. Eleven days before the election, his odds sank to 18 percent.

Acton's strength appears to be her focus on affordability and her personal credibility.

From the start, her campaign emphasized tax relief for working families, cheaper prescriptions, medical debt relief and lower utility costs, presenting government as something that should solve everyday problems rather than manufacture political fights.

Her own biography was connected to that as a survivor of abuse and homelessness. She has spoken openly about growing up in poverty in Youngstown and working several jobs so that one day she could be a doctor. It wasn't merely an economic message for her, it was about her own survival and hardship.

Among the Democratic pick-up opportunities in 2026, Ohio's race between former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) and Sen. Jon Husted (R) was among the top two. According to NBC News, Brown is projected to be the winner.

Brown, a pro-union populist, attempted a return after losing his seat in 2024. Gov. Mike DeWine (R) appointed Husted, Ohio’s former lieutenant governor, to the seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance.

Polling since August has shown Brown ahead, but mid-October polls showed the margin tightening.

Brown's campaign hinged specifically on the affordability crisis and the growing economic dissatisfaction among Ohioans, reaching beyond the Democratic base. His support among people who identify as neither Democratic nor Republican voters was 55 percent while Husted lingered at just 28 percent approval.

Husted fought an uphill battle after supporting data centers until public opinion turned against them. In some ways, he's backed off of the support. However, as lieutenant governor from 2019 to 2025, Husted promoted the projects and defended the tax incentives used to attract more data centers to the state. PolitiFact confirmed that record in a September fact-check of Sherrod Brown’s campaign attacks. His new position was that if communities don't want them, then they should have a say whether or not they're built.

When Trump came to campaign for Husted, his declaration that “we want” data centers put one of the senator’s biggest political liabilities back at center stage.

“We want them,” Trump told the Ohio audience. “Look, there’s so much money to be made for Ohio, you can’t just turn them off. They’ll go to China.”

Trump also touted his "booming" economy, a message that fell flat on struggling families.

“Your state is booming. Every—I hate to say it—every state is booming,” Trump told the MAGA crowd. “They’re all booming.”

Trump's comment came just after nearly 1,400 workers were laid off at a truck factory in nearby Springfield.

Turnout and undecided voters were expected to determine the result. But as the race approached Nov. 3, the early voting in Ohio leaned heavily in Brown's favor.

"Ohio’s in-person early vote has more than doubled, and Virginia is also seeing nearly twice the turnout compared with the previous midterms," reported NewsNation on Oct. 19.

As the New York Times explained, comparing it to previous elections is a little more complicated.

"Ohio’s election system is decentralized, with elections governed by individual county boards of elections — while each county is required to produce a daily absentee report, this data was not standardized until 2023, leading to discrepancies among counties," it explained.

Republicans went wrong in a lot of places in the months leading up to their punishing midterms Tuesday night, what with Trump’s damaging tariffs and his self-made war in Iran blowing gas and grocery prices to the sky.

But CNN anchor Jake Tapper and data analyst and reporter John King had a much quicker argument for numerous Republican losses — and they delivered their point with a bloody call-and-response act.

“Math not my strong suit, but 53 percent of the vote is in. There's still a lot of votes to count. But the Democrat is up more than a million votes right now,” Tapper told King, while scanning CNN’s tally of Democrat wins, including a brewing win in Texas between Democrat James Talarico and GOP candidate Ken Paxton.

“So, this has not happened: A democrat winning a senate seat in Texas in 38 years,” said King.

“That's older than my entire staff,” Tapper marveled.

“I just want to reinforce the point. This has not happened in 36 years, 38 years in the senate,” said King. “… Half of the people alive in Texas today were not alive when Ann Richards won the race for governor, or when Lloyd Bentsen won the race for senator. That's how big of a deal this is, if it holds up. This would be ‘wow history.”

“But who picked him,” demanded King, pointing to the photo of Paxton, who was behind Tlarico by more than a million with half of districts reported.

“President Trump picked Paxton [in the GOP primaries] and chased out the incumbent republican senator John Cornyn, who was well respected and would have at least been more competitive than this,” said Tapper.

“Who picked Darline Graham in South Carolina?” asked King

“Trump,” said Tapper.

“Who picked Michael Whatley in North Carolina,” called King.

“Trump,” responded Tapper.

“Who picked Mike Collins in Georgia”

“Trump.”

“Well, who picked Vivek Ramaswamy in a governor's race in Ohio,” continued King.

“Trump,”” answered Tapper, without missing a beat.

“Welcome to the night,” said King, making clear in one brutal exchange how Trump’s war of vengeance against perceived Republican enemies in primaries had single-handedly sunk the party on Tuesday.

- YouTube youtu.be

The country has been captivated by the Texas U.S. Senate race all year after President Donald Trump picked Attorney General Ken Paxton to be the GOP nominee to run against Rep. James Talarico (D). Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) tried to warn the party that Paxton wasn't the right candidate and wouldn't focus on campaigning the way he would. The GOP feared it would be Paxton's undoing.

After a tight battle, The Hill declared James Talarico was the likely winner.

No Senate race in U.S. history has spent more than the Texas 2026 Senate race. Billionaire Elon Musk has donated roughly $200 million to help get Ken Paxton elected as of the Oct. 15 filing deadline. Trump's MAGA Inc. has spent significantly less. In September, he spent $10 million on the race and by Oct. 8 they'd spent about $22 million. As of the end of October, the AdImpact figures calculate about $36 million total from Trump's political action committee.

Meanwhile, the Republican Party has spent a small fortune defending Paxton. As of Oct. 21, Republican-aligned outside groups had spent about $239 million helping Paxton or opposing Talarico, according to Reuters. Texas PAC, the group established by the Senate Leadership Fund, accounted for nearly $149 million.

With 14 days until the Nov. 3 election, the National Republican Senatorial Committee took out $20 million in loans despite boasting a large cash advantage over Democrats, Politico reported.

The problem, according to former Texas House Speaker Dade Phelan, a Republican, was that the ads never moved the needle in the polls. He warned that fellow Republicans were "freaking out." Some evidence suggests Paxton has narrowed the gap, but it hasn't been enough to shift the race from a toss-up to leaning in Paxton's favor. It did help him stop falling behind.

Texas Senate polls showed a narrow Talarico advantage up until the end, but the race remained close. As of October 25, polling averages put Democrat James Talarico roughly 1.5 to 2.5 percentage points ahead of Paxton, while several individual surveys show a tie.

For his part, Paxton has already assumed he lost, telling a group of donors that Washington took over his campaign and he has no say in what's happening anymore. He also complained that his campaign needed money, even begging Fox News viewers to help. According to him, Talarico's spending advantage was hurting his campaign. But Talarico was being outspent by at least 2.5 to 1.

The issues have been unusual. While Talarico focused on the affordability crisis, the Iran war, wages and housing, Paxton campaigned on the idea that his opponent wasn't manly enough and was even a vegan.

Meanwhile, right-wing activists suffered a huge humiliation when Talarico disappeared for nearly two weeks with the flu. They claimed that he couldn't handle the pressure and was held in an Ohio mental health facility. Right-wing news spread the report like wildfire with an edited recording of a woman working at the facility who said that unless he left "today" there was no one there by that name. The facility ultimately had to debunk the claim. It made Republicans look desperate and silly.

Democrats have officially won control of the U.S. House of Representatives, NBC News is reporting. It ends two years of Republicans ruling both congressional chambers, the White House and a conservative majority on the U.S. Supreme Court.

This is the first opportunity for President Donald Trump to face a major electoral rebuke in his second term. With 218 seats needed for a majority, Democrats have crossed the threshold after flipping a series of Republican-held districts, powered by a national environment that favored anyone opposing the GOP.

There was already a narrow majority for Republicans, which led to a fractured caucus and many defectors on major issues like the release of the files for the Jeffrey Epstein investigation. So, Democrats needed a net gain of just three seats, and Republicans fought tooth and nail to stack the deck in their favor.

In an odd twist, Trump ordered red states to redraw their congressional lines using the 2024 election maps. It assumed that the broad coalition of voters that supported him in the general election would continue to support him. It was a massive miscalculation. Not only did he lost much of his coalition, but he also began losing support among his loyal MAGA base. It put GOP seats that were once seen as safe in jeopardy.

Independents and moderates broke heavily against the GOP, which has acted as a protector for the president rather than a check and balance on a rogue government.

Democrats campaigned heavily on affordability, health care and corruption. Meanwhile, Trump spent the first six to eight months of the year claiming there was no such thing as "affordability" and claimed that those he knew were making tons of money. In the final week of the race, Trump even said the oil industry was booming and making record profits, even if it meant his own supporters had to pay a little more at the pump.

The U.S. oil-and-gas industry was “making hundreds of billions of dollars," Trump told a rally crowd in Perry, Georgia on Oct. 24. "I don’t give a damn. I’m gonna say it: We’re making a freaking fortune." He later repeated a similar line in Arizona.

Trump claimed that his advisers had told him not to mention the oil profits because Americans were suffering so much at the pump. He predicted the “fake headlines” would say he was “bragging about all the money they’re making while people are suffering at the pump," but then said, “I don’t give a damn.” He said it was "a small price to pay."

Nearly a month before the election, it became clear that Republicans would lose the majority it was unclear by how much, though.

Exit polls and pre-election surveys showed voters broadly dissatisfied with the economy, with Democrats holding an eight- to nine-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot heading into Election Day.

Early voting numbers were also astronomical. It broke records from the 2022 election, particularly among Latino voters, who have been furious with the brutality of Trump's government kidnapping immigrants who were in the U.S. legally and waiting for their asylum proceedings or citizenship hearings.

By Oct. 28, TargetSmart counted about 3.8 million Hispanic/Latino early voters nationwide, up from 2.35 million at the same point in 2022, the Washington Post reported. In 94 percent of counties, Latino voters made up a larger share of the early electorate than they had four years earlier.

The Texas Tribune revealed that more than 7.7 million Texans voted early in the 2026 election, surpassing 2018 record, which was the last time Texas saw such a huge surge. The 2022 election only saw about 31 percent turnout in early voting.

“We’re not going to hit presidential levels, but this is definitely high turnout,” said political science Professor Mark Jones, at Rice University. “The question though, that is still out there is, and this happens every time that we try to interpret early voting numbers: How many votes are actually still out there?”

As of Sunday evening, 50.7 million votes had already been cast, according to On Point Politics.

In the final weeks of the 2026 midterm election, questions arose about whether the late Sen. Lindsey Graham's (R-S.C.) sister could hold onto his seat.

By late Tuesday, it became clear that Annie Andrews would be the winner; Peter Hamby called it early, and the Decision Desk confirmed. Local WIS10 showed that 80 percent reported there was no pathway to victory left for Graham. Meanwhile, that same governors race will likely go Republican, meaning many voters split tickets to vote GOP for governor and then voted for Andrews too.

Pediatrician Annie Andrews ran against the former senator before his death, but then Darline Graham stepped in after a late primary left the younger Graham bruised.

Throughout September and into part of October, Graham led by only a few points in polls and always within the margin of error. Her best showing came from the GOP firm Trafalgar Group, where she led by just three points. Impact Research did a poll from Oct. 15-21 that put Andrews up by one point, but still within the margin of error. By Election Day they were tied.

The tough GOP battle between Graham and Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) set her up to face off serious policy issues that extend to the war in Iran, trade deals and corruption. During a debate with Norman, Graham had an embarrassing moment when she admitted she didn't know much about Taiwan or really any national security, but she supported the military.

"National security is not my thing, not my area of expertise. But I do support the military," she said in the painful debate moment.

When challenged on it, she doubled down, saying, “They’re worried about their pocketbooks more than they’re worried about the South China Sea, quite honestly.” She then began talkinga bout boys in girls' sports.

She then misstated that 50 million people lived in South Carolina, when the number is more like six million. Norman tried to capitalize on the moment by saying that she may very well be a nice person and a good sister, but it didn't mean she was qualified to be a U.S. Senator.

Still, she made it through the primary with support from President Donald Trump, rallying MAGA behind her.

By the time of her Oct. 11 debate against Annie Andrews, Graham still struggled in the debate. While she didn't make any additional gaffes, she was very slow to answer, and there were many awkward pauses. Her attack lines didn't land, and that became part of the narrative that she wasn't ready for prime time. Andrews followed Norman's message, saying the debate proved Graham simply wasn't qualified.

As the election neared, the Senate Leadership Fund sent $5 million to help a race in a reliably red district that neither party saw as competitive. A Republican briefed on the plans called it the GOP's “insurance policy” to protect the seat.

In late October, Norman's son announced in an op-ed that he'll likely vote Democrat for the first time in his life by casting a ballot for Andrews. He made it clear that he refused to support Graham.

South Carolina was never meant to be a bellwether, but the time zone meant the state was likely to be among the first east coast races called unless it was close. It was thought that if the race was very close or Andrews pulled out a win, that could be an indication for other U.S. Senate races in red states like Iowa and Kansas, where Democrats have also been within striking distance

Mediate reports that the image of a Minnesota poll worker that inflamed MAGA Republicans and “spread like wildfire on social media for invoking the assassination of Charlie Kirk is not at all what it seems,” and the woman in question is a Republican herself, according to officials.

“The image, showing a woman wearing a bloodied shirt with the words “PROBLEM SOLVED,” was first shared by X user Dustin Grage with the caption: “A poll worker in Minnesota. They just want free healthcare, guys.”

By Tuesday evening, Mediaite reports the post had more than 4.5 million views, and was picked up by countless other MAGA and right-leaning accounts, including James O’Keefe, who complained that, “It’s illegal for me to ask questions in polling locations about Minnesota’s election laws, but THIS is allowed…?”

O’Keefe also asked social media users to “DM us if you’re an election judge or poll worker in Minnesota with anything to report.”

Other MAGA talking heads, like anti-democracy authoritarian Matt Walsh complained on X that “This person should be in handcuffs on federal charges. This should be the kind of decision that ruins her life. DOJ needs to be on it immediately.

However, it turned out the woman in the photo, who has not been identified, was wearing a Halloween costume that’s been on sale for years, reports Mediaite. The City of Rogers, Minnesota, even released a statement via Facebook that stated the woman in question was not trying to send a political message, and she’s actually a Republican:

“The City has been made aware of attire worn by an election judge/volunteer on Halloween that some have taken as a political statement. We have spoken with the judge/volunteer in question who has assured us that there was absolutely no political message or intent behind the shirt, that it was worn as Halloween attire, and that they would never be supportive of the apparent message that others have tied to it,” the city reported. “The election judge in question has given the City permission to note that they are a Republican judge pursuant to the requirement to maintain party balance per Minnesota Statute.”

Furthermore, the city stated that while the shirt in question “did not meet the statutory definition regarding prohibitions against political party or campaign messaging at polling places per Minnesota Statute,” the city took the responsibility of maintaining a safe and inviting polling location “very seriously,” and would have asked the person to remove or cover up the costume if it was causing confusion.

And confuse it did -- with still more MAGA voices sounding off across social media.

“NOW: Poll worker in MINNESOTA is mocking the assassination of Charlie Kirk with an absolutely demonic shirt,” complained Eric Daugherty on X. “THESE PEOPLE WANT TO CONTROL AMERICA. She needs to be IMMEDIATELY carried out of the polls, and Republicans need to keep voting or these people will take control!”