The one unthinkable disaster facing the GOP on Tuesday

Maybe it’s my sportswriting background, but when a big event comes along, it’s hard not to study the field, put whatever is left of my reputation on the line, and predict a winner.

I used to be far better at forecasting political things when my increasingly liberal heart didn’t interfere with what is rattling around inside my head. For example, I just knew that Nixon was going to wallop McGovern, and Reagan was going to destroy Carter. There was never a doubt in my mind that Obama was going to beat Hillary Clinton in 2008, for the right to batter John McCain, and then Mitt Romney in 2012.

I think 2012 was just about the last time I have been right about anything when picking political horse races. That year, I hit the trifecta, when I predicted Barack Obama would win every swing state, and blow Romney out of the water. Unfortunately, so did the New York Times’ Nate Silver and he got all the credit …

Since then, it’s been all downhill for me and my country.

I mean, I still haven’t gotten over the 2016 election, and most likely never will. I was one of those haughty guys who said he could never win. That was also the last time I ever overestimated my country’s good taste, and sense of smell.

But something is in the air this year, and I can feel my mojo coming back, so I’ll take the opportunity to pump out my chest a bit, and remind everybody that last December I was predicting momentous midterm elections for the Democrats, typing this:

“If the midterms were held this Tuesday, Republicans would lose the House by 40 to 60 seats, as well as the Senate. Big races, small races, and medium races would swing toward the Left, because that is exactly what has been quietly happening among the carnage of Trump’s continued attack on America.”

Well, 11 months later, the midterms are finally here, and I am still feeling mighty bullish about Democrats’ chances to whip up a proper Blue Tsunami next Tuesday.

The year feels very much like 2006 to me, when the idiot, George W. Bush, much like Trump now, was slogging through the sixth year of his presidency. We were in the middle of an unpopular war in the Middle East (because we seemingly always are under Republicans), the economy was showing signs of retracting (because it seemingly always is under Republicans), and there was considerable fatigue with the Republican establishment, which had once again brought us nothing but pain.

The Democrats surprisingly gained six seats in the Senate that year, and 31 in the House to take over leadership of both chambers. Bush called his party’s losses that year “a thumping” and his abhorrent presidency for all intents and purposes was over, but not before he brought about the greatest economic collapse since The Depression.

I was working in Germany at the time, and the bars stayed open deep into the night while Germans and Yanks alike celebrated the fact that America was still capable of getting something right on occasion.

Two years later, we really knocked their socks off when we elected Obama.

sigh

Those were the days …

There is not a single thing recommending Republicans this year, unless you like war, high prices, dirty air and water, and white supremacy. I see another first-class thumping on the way.

Trump is one of the most unpopular presidents in history, and Democrats have been doing nothing but winning races the past two years, including landslides in the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections.

I believe strongly in this case that past performance is very indicative of future results. I think the electorate has already told us how they intend to vote this year, by how they already have.

So what will happen Tuesday?

This.Democrats need a net gain of three seats for control of the chamber. If they can’t do at least that much, I will be packing my bags, and going off to die in some corner. It will be better than what’s coming.

Thankfully, death and that corner will have to wait, because I see the Dems racking up huge wins all over the map.

Mike Johnson's Republicans currently hold a 219-214 seat edge with two vacancies (one on each side).

A lot has been written about the 2018 Blue Wave in which Dems roared to control of the House by picking up a whopping 41 seats. People forget, though, that they were in a far deeper hole heading into that election, when they had only 195 seats, and needed to pickup at least 23 seats for control of the House.

While a 41-seat pickup isn’t out of the question this year, thanks to aggressive Republican gerrymandering, there are far less competitive seats on the 2026 map. With those caveats in place, I am going to say that when all the counting is done (drumroll please):

Democrats will pick up an even 30 seats in the House, and will hold a commanding, 244-191 advantage.

I actually wanted to stretch my prediction into the 250-185 range, but will hedge my bets just a bit. I suppose I am getting cautious in my old age, and don’t want to throw out my back by reaching too much.

If you are looking for a race to watch that might tell the tale early Tuesday night, so you can hit the rack at a reasonable hour, the one happening in my new backyard is worth keeping both your eyes on.

Democrat Don Davis is facing a challenge from Republican Lori Buckhout in NC-1, here in Eastern North Carolina. If Davis can hold his seat, it will portend a very long night for Republicans nationally. Since the 2024 election, North Carolina Republicans aggressively redrew this district, making it much more GOP friendly, with the aim of ensuring a win for any Republican candidate going forward.

Except Buckhout, has been trying to run away from the historically unpopular Trump, as much as she has been running against Davis. This is a common theme across the country. There has been an ungodly amount of money spent here — roughly $40 million — which is insane for a race Republicans thought they had in the bag just a year ago.

Polls close at 7:30 p.m. EST here in North Carolina.

If Davis holds, Democrats might be on their way to a full-blown rout, and that 250-185 advantage could be in play.

Either way, it will be a huge night for Democrats running for congress.

The math is lot easier here, and even a journalist like myself can track it breaking only a minimal sweat. The Democrats need to pickup four seats on Tuesday for a 51-49 advantage.

And let’s address the shoddily dressed elephant in the room from Pennsylvania before going further …

Thanks to the reprehensible John Fetterman, a Democrat by name only, I strongly believe Democrats need to pick up five Senate seats to have a safe majority. Should the Democrats ‘only’ pick up four, Fetterman would become the most powerful person in the Senate, and emit some odious Joe Manchin vibes. Nobody did more damage to Joe Biden’s presidency than the West Virginia Democrat, Manchin, who seemed to delight in using his swing vote in that 50-50 Senate to stab Biden in the back every chance he got.

To get to the key number of five, Democrats need to defend the four competitive Senate seats that they already hold in Georgia, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Michigan. If they can do that, and I believe they will, then they must also flip at least five seats currently held by Republicans.

Incredibly, I believe there are eight states in serious play to get those seats, along with a few outliers that might be long-shot possibilities if Democrats are having a truly historic night.

Here’s how I rate these races in the order of their probability of flipping blue:

1. NORTH CAROLINA: If Roy Cooper doesn’t win down here, I will eat my hat, and yours for good measure.
2. ALASKA: Mary Peltola is the perfect candidate for the state, and is running against a pair of Dan Sullivans. To quote another more-famous Sullivan for the Boomers out there: “This will be a very big shoe, for a very big foot …” Peltola uses both her feet to kick the two Sullivans out the door.
3. OHIO: Here's where things start getting tricky. I believe like Cooper, Sherrod Brown is the perfect Democratic candidate for Ohio, but I still don’t trust this state. Used to be “as Ohio goes, so goes the nation.” This year, as Ohio goes, so goes the Democrats’ chances of taking the Senate.
4. MAINE: I lived in Maine, and was working at a paper there the first year Susan Collins was elected to the Senate 30 years ago. I trust it even less than Ohio. I have heard rumors of Collins’ political demise for decades, and she’s still standing. Say what you want about her (please), but she is an underrated politician who navigates the squishy middle just about better than anybody I have ever seen. If she loses, it will be closer than a tick on a deer. Some Maine lingo there …
5. TEXAS: I trust Texas even less than I trust Maine and Ohio. Texas is the Democrats’ great white whale. They can get close, and even taste it, but in the end, the whale always eludes them. But you know what? Republicans used to say the same thing about Pennsylvania. Then, in that hellish 2016 election, they finally toppled the place, and it is now one of the premier battleground states. I hate you, Pennsylvania, I really do, but you did prove that anything — good or bad — is possible. So if Pennsylvania can flip, why not Texas? And if Texas finally goes the way of Democrats, good people, everything you thought you knew about the electoral map in the U.S. will go right out the window. Republicans cannot win the presidency if they can’t win Texas. I say James Talarico will beat the reprehensible Ken Paxton, and Republicans’ worst fears are realized.
6. IOWA: Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson are in the middle of a good old-fashioned donnybrook there. Wasn’t so long ago Iowa was a battleground state, but then the Republicans took over the radio airways and media markets in the state, and claimed it as their own. There is a lesson there for Democrats … If Turek can pull this one off, it will portend a disaster for Republicans Tuesday night.
7. KANSAS: Latest polling in the state I was able to find shows 45% of Kansas voters support Democrat Adam Hamilton and 43% support incumbent Republican Roger Marshall. Democrats haven’t won a Senate race in Kansas in 94 years. Read that again. That this state is even in play is a win in itself for Democrats.
8. SOUTH CAROLINA: Up until this morning, I wasn’t ready to put it on my list, but a brand-new New York Times poll came out and has the Democrat, Dr. Annie Andrews, in a dead heat with Darline Graham, the late Senator’s sister. It’s both insane that this race is close in this Deep Red state, and that Graham would actually be considered to serve in the U.S. Senate by any sane person. I am to the point where I would sell my soul to see Andrews win this seat.

So those are the eight, and now I can hear some of you gnashing your teeth in Nebraska, and Florida. I am not saying these states are completely out of play for the Democrats, especially if this a Blue Tsunami, but I just can’t bring myself to predict victory in these places. I would be delighted if I was wrong.

So where will the Senate land? I say Democrats pickup six of the eight seats that are seriously in play just as they did in 2006, and have a working margin of 53-47 heading into 2027.

Currently, Republicans lead 26 states, and Democrats 24. I predict that for the first time in 16 years, Democrats will govern more states than Republicans when all the votes are counted.

There are five governorships that are rated as true tossups right now.

1. OHIO: Democrat Amy Acton will beat the grotesque Vivek Ramaswamy.
2. NEVADA: Democrat Aaron Ford will knock off Joe Lombardo.
3. WISCONSIN: Democrat David Crowley will put away Trump-lover Tom Tiffany.
4. GEORGIA: Keisha Lance Bottoms will defeat Rick Jackson in the Peach State.
5. ALASKA: Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins will beat three other challengers.

And again, I hear your teeth gnashing …

What about Florida, Texas, and Kansas? I think all three of these races are going to be closer than expected, and if Democrats are having that historic night I talked about earlier, one, two or all of them could go their way.

My guess is many Texan Republicans will split their vote and Greg Abbott will survive, while Paxton falls. I think David Jolly is going to throw a real scare at Byron Donalds in Florida, and Republican Ty Masterson will win in Kansas, but I wouldn’t bet a rusty nickel on it. Kansas is looking very squirrely for Republicans right now.

So that’s how I see the headline races playing out, my friends. No less important are all the state-level races, where I predict you are going to hear about some mind-blowing results for Democrats.

I do believe this will be one of the most consequential — if not the most consequential — elections in American history because of what is on the line: Nothing less than the future of America as a Democracy.

I intentionally didn’t address the significant what-ifs out there, namely: The anti-American Trump’s plans to undermine the results he doesn’t like. There will be plenty of time to get into all this if any of it comes to pass.

We are already in the middle of a full-blown national emergency, and the only thing you can control right now is your vote. So for now, make sure you have voted, and call as many friends and family who you still trust to make sure they are heading to the polls.

This is not a drill.

Everything depends on it.

D. Earl Stephens is the author of “Toxic Tales: A Caustic Collection of Donald J. Trump’s Very Important Letters” and awarding-winning journalist, who headed newsrooms, and worked as a reporter in the newspaper business for decades. You can find all his work here.