Almost no one expected President Donald Trump's own backyard to be anything but safe for Republicans in this year's midterms, but according to a new breakdown from The i Paper, his disastrous leadership and ongoing "crisis" have put the MAGA stronghold state more and more in play.
Writing for the outlet on Sunday, veteran Washington correspondent Simon Marks dug into why even Florida, home to Trump's Mar-a-Lago residence and increasingly seen as a resilient jewel in the GOP crown, is starting to make Republicans sweat heading into November.
"If there is one state in the U.S. that Republicans had thought was entirely safe terrain for them in November’s midterm elections, it was the Sunshine State of Florida," Marks wrote. "At the start of this year, Democrats gave no thought to the possibility of flipping the state and turning it blue. After all, their Republican opponents currently control 20 of Florida’s 28 seats in the House of Representatives, both seats in the U.S. Senate, and the Governor’s Mansion."
He added: "Democratic Party grandees had sensibly written it off. But suddenly, such is the American public’s disquiet over Donald Trump’s stewardship of the nation and the economic crisis that his war on Iran has ignited that even Florida is in play."
Signals about GOP uncertainty in Florida have been growing in number and intensity over the past few weeks. Rep. MarÃa Elvira Salazar, a House Republican running for reelection in a largely Latino district that she previously won by 20 points in 2024, turned heads with a new ad attacking the president over his mass deportation agenda. Byron Donalds, the Trump-endorsed gubernatorial candidate in the state who once found himself on Trump's 2024 running mate shortlist, was also caught scrubbing mentions of the president from his campaign website.
An update from the revered election forecasting outlet, Cook Political Report, also recently shifted the Florida governor's race slightly in favor of Democratic nominee and outspoken Trump critic David Jolly, though the race remains "likely Republican." This came after a shock poll from the Miami Herald gave Jolly a five-point edge over Donalds.
"That Florida could now be a swing state should be setting off alarm bells in the White House," Marks added later. "Former Florida Republican congressman Carlos Curbelo told Politico on Friday that the party’s candidates were 'bracing for the worst.' The loss of Trump’s home state – and seat of his unofficial court at his Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach – would be an extraordinary and humiliating loss for the President. And Democrats know that if Trump’s party is in trouble there, it is facing a possible wipeout when the votes are counted all over the country in just over five weeks’ time."
