Red state races look 'surprisingly competitive' for Democrats: local expert

Top Iowa politics reporter Laura Belin noted that while Iowa is seen as a red state, former President Barack Obama won the state twice, and until about 10 years ago, there was a Democrat in one of the U.S. Senate seats.

As the 2026 midterm elections draw near, the pendulum that swung right appears to be coming back.

"We are seeing a number of significant races within the state that are looking very competitive this year," said political scientist Seth Masket. "These include the U.S. Senate race. They include two or three U.S. House races in a year when control of both chambers is really up for grabs."

In the U.S. Senate race, Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) is stepping down after a number of public gaffes that left her with abysmal job approval ratings. Democratic candidate Josh Turek, a member of the State House, has a campaign war chest that is much smaller than that of Republican current House member Ashley Hinson.

"One thing I've noticed is I haven't seen Ashley Hinson at 50 percent in any poll," said Belin. "She's been in the 40s in all of the polling and very close, depending on whose survey you believe, maybe a couple of points ahead, maybe a couple of points behind, Josh Turek."

However, Hinson has a fairly significant advantage in raw voter registration data alone. Even if the GOP turnout is down significantly in November, there are still 170,000 to 180,000 more GOP voters in the state, Belin said.

Belin also noted that the gubernatorial candidate (Zach Lahn) and the Libertarian senatorial candidate (Thomas Lahan) have the same last name, though spelled differently. So, there's an opportunity for people to mix up their candidates in the first race on the ballot.

"We shouldn't blow off things like people confusing names of candidates and things like that," said Masket. "I mean, that's not a huge number of voters, but that can make a difference, and who knows, it could have an impact on this race.

In past elections, Libertarian candidates in Iowa races have earned anywhere between 2 and 4 points, Belin recalled. Lahan is "emphasizing issues that would appeal to conservatives. So, eminent domain, land use, just the classic. And so if you're a disaffected Republican and you just think the GOP establishment is terrible, like you probably never vote for Josh Turek, but maybe you'd look at your ballot and think that this Thomas Lane is somebody you could vote for."

Ernst is stepping out of her seat, but so is Gov. Kim Reynolds (R), so Belin noted that any Democrat will have an easier go of things in an open seat than an incumbent. That GOP primary race, she said, was curious because the Donald Trump-endorsed candidate lost to the newcomer. Belin called him the "worst candidate I've ever seen in my life."

There are at least two federal House races that are also competitive in the First and Third Congressional Districts.

Republican Rep. Zach Nunn is being challenged by a Democrat, Sarah Trone Garriott. Nunn barely won his elections in 2022 and 2024, so anti-Republican year could spell disaster for him.

"I think Nunn's in big trouble. Of all the races, the one I'm most confident about Democrats winning in Iowa is the Third Congressional District," said Belin.

Trump is suffering statewide in Iowa, so, she said, it stands to reason that he's underwater in the Third District.

The First Congressional District will be competitive because Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks won the race in 2024 by just 800 votes. So, it will be something she has to fight to hold. If it turns out to be an anti-Republican year, it could mean another win for Democrats.

Meanwhile, Democratic state Rep. Lindsay James does have strong relationships in the area. Belin compared her to Abby Finkenauer, who flipped that same district to Democrat in 2018.