Everything was going really well until President Donald Trump started a war with Iran, at least that's how some Republicans are telling it as they appear poised to lose the U.S. House of Representatives.
Turnout will determine the results in the U.S. Senate races and whether Democrats can take the chamber there too. But already, Republicans are starting to look around for someone to blame.
Zeto's Asawin Suebsaeng predicted: "There is going to be a geyser of score-settling and finger-pointing after election night. There is all but guaranteed to be a gargantuan sum of anonymous or on-record intra-GOP sniping over who should be scapegoated, with most participants being too cowardly to correctly and publicly blame their god-emperor, Donald Trump."
Some of it has already begun. An interview with The Atlantic, published Thursday, featured former strategist Jason Blair, who may be among those Trump attempts to throw under the bus.
Blair was the architect behind the redistricting effort that has ultimately backfired against Republicans. He convinced the president to redraw the lines in red states, using the 2024 election map as a guide to favor Republicans. The problem with that, however, is that it assumes the electorate will look more like it did in 2024. Instead, far more voters are angry about the state of the economy and corruption. The 2024 coalition has completely evaporated from the MAGA fold.
One reason Iowa Republicans made it clear they didn't want to redraw the lines is that, during a tough election year, they need as many Republicans in their districts as possible. Trump's lines would have spread the Democrats out, distributing them to more congressional districts. In a wave year, it would mean that Indiana could have lost four seats.
Texas has similarly been a disaster where Democrats look competitive in congressional districts that Trump won by 18 points in 2024.
So, who is to blame? Suebsaeng thinks the knives will be out for "Susie Wiles, James Blair, MAGA-cogs like that – even if it wasn’t completely their fault." He thinks the jealous Republicans who don't like the two aides will eagerly throw them under the bus.
"Another Republican who keeps coming up in these types of discussions is Roger Marshall, a Trump-backed senator from ruby-red, conservative Kansas," he continued. Trump won the state in 2024 by 16 points.
But Marshall put on a masterclass in stepping in it. According to the people in his own hometown, he's a terrible person. They also say he doesn't live in the state anymore and that might be why he doesn't do a lot for the people of Kansas.
"Republican operatives working on competitive races and other key figures in the party whom I’ve spoken to lately are cautiously optimistic (emphasis on the adverb) that Marshall will squeak it out and keep that Kansas seat red," said Suebsaeng. "Their Democratic counterparts say the same. But even if Marshall wins, the damage is already done."
Republicans on Capitol Hill told Suebsaeng that they are furious with Marshall. At a time when Republicans desperately needed to hang on to every seat they had, Marshall turned Kansas competitive. Other conservatives "find him, among other things, lazy, stubborn and not a team player."
Suebsaeng noted when Vice President JD Vance campaigned in Kansas last month he said of Marshall, “When the lobbyists and the special interests and the far-left lunatics come and try to fight against the people in this room, Roger Marshall has been on the right side every single time.” It wasn't long after that, "a protester managed to yell, 'He sued his patients!' before being removed."
A bombshell report from the New York Times revealed that Marshall sued over 700 of his patients and had 81 arrested. Scandals keep piling up for Marshall.
One longtime Trump advisor and a Republican close to the president told Suebsaeng they were annoyed that Trump even tried to defend Marshall. "Because [he's] doing so in such a viral, antisemitic-slur-prone way only ensured the debt controversy got more attention, in and out of the state."
“They’re bleeding us in Kansas,” a GOP lawmaker on the Hill told Suebsaeng.
One White House official called it “inexcusable” that Kansas could flip.
The same is true for Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who abandoned his campaign on July 4th as America celebrated its 250th birthday for a vacation with his girlfriend to Iceland and London. Sen. John Cornyn (R) tried to warn his party that Paxton was "lazy," but they didn't listen.
