Claire Bond Potter

So. Very. Guilty.

Editor’s note: The following first appeared in Political Junkie, Claire’s newsletter.

OK — did I call it or did I call it?

I asked you to trust the jury and they came through. Thirty-four counts. Thirty-four verdicts of guilty, making Donald John Trump the first president of the United States to be convicted of a felony. You can read an account of what happened in the courtroom here. Trump will be sentenced by Judge Juan Merchan on the morning of July 11, four days before the Republican National Convention is gaveled on July 15.

That sentence could range from up to four years in prison, house arrest or probation. As I understand it, Trump meets with his probation officer today: that conversation is factored into sentencing, as are the sentencing memos that the Manhattan District Attorney’s office and the Trump legal team will file with the judge. Simultaneously, Todd Blanche, Trump’s lead attorney, will file motions to delay sentencing until after the election on November 5, and file a notice of appeal to the Appellate Court of New York’s First Judicial Department.

READ: The GOP has chosen hell over America — and there should be no coming back from it

At sentencing, Trump also has an opportunity to respond. That should be — fun. But remember, a lack of remorse can affect the length of a sentence, so Trump would be wise to keep his trap shut.

It’s possible that this case will not be fully settled for several years. Any of you who took my advice and watched the 2024 CNN docuseries, “The Many Lives of Martha Stewart” will recall that Stewart elected to serve her sentence (which included prison and a term of home confinement) rather than appeal because her attorneys estimated that an appeal, successful or not, would take two years. Stewart, a shrewd businesswoman and a tougher cookie than Trump has ever been, saw her business going down the drain as uncertainty about her own future snowballed. She chose the slammer.

Given that this is his third conviction in three different trials, there are pending appeals in all of them, and two trials yet to come — it seems increasingly unlikely that the moderate, unaffiliated voters he needs to win this election will vote for him too.

Let me underline: the Stewart and Trump cases are very different. It is quite clear in the docuseries that the limits of the federal prosecutors’ mercy in the Stewart case was how much time Martha would be inside, not whether (she served five months in the minimum-security federal prison in Alderson, West Virginia, and then wore an ankle bracelet for five months. They are open about having wanted to make an example of her, not for the insider trading, but for the lying about it.

Trump’s is a state case, for one thing. But even if sending a presidential candidate to prison were not a bad look for any democratic nation, it’s an impossible security problem, because Trump is entitled to personal protection as a former president, raising knotty questions of authority between the New York State Department of Corrections and the federal Secret Service charged with protecting Trump. According to Mark Gollom of CBS News, the Secret Service would have to decide how many agents were necessary to protect Trump round the clock in prison.

Under ordinary circumstances, that’s three shifts of four agents every day. But the logistics, Gollom emphasizes, are daunting:

In a column for ABC News, former Secret Service agent Donald J. Mihalek said the question about how protection would work if a former president were to go to jail has a clear answer.

"Simply, the law mandates it and the Secret Service would have to provide protection, even in jail, as only the protectee may end it," he wrote.

But Miller said that would be "exceptionally problematic" for the Secret Service and create a whole lot of challenges.
"And quite frankly, I don't think there would ever be a scenario where he would be placed in a jail with other people," he said. "That would be problematic across the spectrum."

The practical scenarios are home confinement; that Trump gets to campaign, but with a monitor; or the most likely in my view, an extended period of parole during which Trump does whatever he wants — even, perhaps, voting for himself and becoming the first felon to take the oath of office as president. Some observers are suggesting he would not be permitted to vote for himself and normally, in Florida, where Trump is registered, that’s true. Felons cannot regain their civil rights until after a long clemency process. But according to Patrick Marley of the Post, there’s a loophole: the crime has to have been committed in Florida.

So he can vote for himself. But given that this is his third conviction in three different trials, there are pending appeals in all of them, and two trials yet to come — it seems increasingly unlikely that the moderate, unaffiliated voters he needs to win this election will vote for him too.

NOW READ: It’s obscene: Inside the Medicare Advantage sham

Hush money isn’t a crime. Slush money is

Editor’s Note: The following first appeared in Political Junkie, Claire’s newsletter. –JS

Thursday, Michael Cohen, former president Donald Trump’s former attorney and fixer, completed his third day on the stand in People v. Donald J. Trump. The prosecution is expected to rest its case. So far, we have been reminded of all kinds of delicious facts about Cohen, a man from central casting if there ever was one. For example, that after Trump abandoned him, he said things like: “You better believe I want this man to go down and rot inside for what he did to me and my family.”

You can never tell how something like that might land with a New York jury. Todd Blanche, Trump’s lead defense attorney, hopes that it will plant the idea that Cohen would say or do anything to hurt Trump.

But it may backfire and add to Cohen’s authenticity, making him more believable to the jury. Why? Because most New Yorkers would feel the same way. There are undoubtedly people sitting in that jury box thinking, “Yeah. I can see that. I’m surprised he didn’t go after Trump with a crowbar. No offense meant.”

If you are a New Yorker, you know this is true. If you are not a New Yorker, and you need supporting evidence, take a look at Jacob Bernstein’s piece in the Times about how and why Rosie O’Donnell became Michael Cohen’s friend after Cohen participated in Trump’s vicious smear campaign against her.

The quick answer is that after he went to jail, O’Donnell felt sorry for him. “Mr. Cohen, with his heavy Nassau County accent, reminded her of the boys she knew growing up in Commack, on Long Island,” Bernstein writes. “'He was every guy I went to high school with,' she said.”

Friday was a day off in Criminal Court (although sadly, not for the other criminals), during which Trump attended the graduation of Barron Trump (otherwise known by his father as “Melania’s son”) from Oxbridge Academy in West Palm Beach, Florida. Trump then skipped the rest of the festivities and flew to Minnesota for a campaign fundraiser, a normal Dad way of saying “I love you” when your youngest kid is at a turning point in his life.

Since the defense will not begin its case until Monday, this is a good time to take a breath and remind everyone what this trial is about, since it will be the defense’s job next week to make that very confusing.

The sensational testimony, much of which we have heard before, also makes the trial confusing, even though the prosecution is knitting it together in a story that is not about sex, tabloids or payoffs. Prosecutors are telling that story because it establishes meaning, motivation and a chain of verifiable facts for the real crime: that Donald Trump used his company as a slush fund and an arm of his 2016 campaign; and that under his direction, fake bookkeeping enabled this felony.

The charging document lists 34 counts of falsified business records, all of which pertain to a payment of $130,000 made to adult film star Stephanie Clifford (aka Stormy Daniels) to buy her silence about a one-night stand in 2006. Each payment occurred in 2017, and they are identical, but for two things.

They have different check, voucher or invoice numbers; and they were authorized or paid on different dates: on or about February 14, 2017 (4), March 16 (1), 2017, March 17 (1); April 13 (1), June 19 (2), May 22 (2), (May 23 (1), June 16 (1), June 19 (2), July 11 (3), August 1 (3), September 11 (2), September 12 (1), October 18 (3), November 20 (2), November 21 (1), December 1 (2), and December 5 (1).

Every check has Donald Trump’s signature on it.

But let’s talk about what this case is really about: whether these acts pertained to fees for legitimate legal and personal services provided by Michael Cohen; or, as the prosecution alleges, whether Cohen (as he claims) fronted a payment of $130,000 to Clifford, at Trump’s direction, and was repaid over time via invoices for legal fees, invoices that were padded to conceal the reimbursement.

These payments exceeded the original sum by about $50,000 to account for Cohen’s total expenses (wiring and transfer fees, interest paid on the home loan and taxes on the “income”), a sum that represented less than half of what Trump paid Cohen that year.

Although this is commonly referred to as a “hush money” trial, none of these charges are about hush money: it’s where the hush money came from, how it got to where it was intended to go, and why it needed to be paid.

So it would be more accurate to say this is a slush money case, because Trump is alleged to have used his corporate, rather than his personal, accounts as a slush fund for making problems go away. Had he used his own funds, and concealed the payments, it is likely these charges would never have been filed.

But he’s a cheapskate, and he did, and they were.

So here is the thing to hold in your head as the defense goes to work next week.

Trump is being prosecuted because of crimes he has not yet been charged with. The crimes are: committing a fraud on the American public by conspiring to hide a sexual encounter that might have influenced voters; by failing to disclose this payment in his 2017 annual financial disclosure; and by making an unreported contribution to his own political campaign. These are felonies, and under New York State law, misdemeanors in pursuit of a larger crime or crimes are felonies. This, Alvin Bragg’s theory of the case, transforms each of the 34 misdemeanors into felonies.

This is obviously complicated. So let’s look at how Trump, Trump supporters, and the broader extreme right are trying to use this complexity to insist on the Former Guy’s innocence. I have framed what follows around four common, but false, assertions that deliberately misread what has happened in this trial so far.

The 34 actions cited in the indictment were minor mistakes that are common in corporate life, and obviously, this trial was concocted to interfere with Trump’s presidential campaign.

Here’s an example of this falsehood. As recently as mid-April, in an appearance on Sean Hannity’s evening show, Lara Trump (who is Donald Trump’s daughter-in-law and co-chair of the Republican National Committee) characterized the 34 actions under scrutiny as "bookkeeping errors." According to Newsweek, she then said that:

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg "refused to prosecute this case until ... Donald Trump decided he was running for president."
"Everyone can see what this is about," she said. "They have, and are forcing, Donald Trump to sit in a courtroom — this is a former president of the United States, the current nominee for the Republican side of the aisle for president — for weeks on end. For what, Sean? They claim a bookkeeping error. Really?"

First, this case has been in the works since 2020 when Cy Vance was Manhattan DA. Second, while it is not uncommon to conceal payoffs for sexual misbehaviors and crimes by passing the money through someone else, the bookkeeping actually is crucial. Harvey Weinstein used his brother Bob for this purpose, and it was vile — but legal.

Yet even if it was a series of bookkeeping errors — perhaps Lara means that the invoices were not properly itemized? — it would still be, as the IRS says, “inadvisable,” to make a personal pay off with corporate money. Why? Because it is almost impossible to stay on the right side of the law if you do.

Notably, if the jury convicts, it will establish two facts that can be referred to the Southern District: that Trump took extra, unreported income from his company, used that money for his campaign, and took the payoff to Clifford as a corporate deduction.

Stephanie Clifford tried to extort Donald Trump and should be charged with blackmail.

This is false: Clifford never approached Trump for money. Nor did Karen MacDougal, the Playmate and preschool teacher who also allegedly shtupped Trump, and who was paid $150,000 via National Enquirer publisher David Pecker in August 2016. Instead, like McDougal, Clifford began to shop her story about a sexual encounter with Trump in early October, 2016, around the time Trump was under fire for the "Access Hollywood" tape.

But Pecker balked: Trump had not yet paid him back for the McDougal story, and this is why the payment to Clifford had to go through Cohen. Allegedly, Trump believed that he would lose the presidency if the story about Clifford came out, compounding the damage done by having publicly admitted that he sexually assaulted women.

It’s also important to emphasize that the damage from such revelations was entirely reputational. While adultery is illegal in 16 states, Nevada, where the alleged sexual encounter took place, is not one of them; and Pecker’s “catch and kill” operation — paying someone money for the rights to a story you will never publish — is also perfectly legal, and a longstanding tabloid technique

The Biden administration is using the courts to persecute its political enemies.

The New York case is not a federal case, and the Manhattan District Attorney is not a federal employee. If Trump were convicted, no president could pardon him. But as I said above, there could be federal referrals.

Trump just needs one juror to not convict. Just one.

That’s true. There is a meme on the right about how to force the judicial system to heel, and it is called “jury nullification” or “jury independence.” This means that a juror or jurors break the oath they take at the beginning of the trial, not just to be honest about their views and decide the case impartially, but to decide it according to the law. A juror who “nullifies” makes a statement that the law itself is unjust, and/or ignores the judge’s instructions about how the law applies to the evidence they have heard.

Jury nullification has been associated with both progressive and rightwing causes. But excitement about the practice has accelerated on the right under Trumpism, because MAGA-world is anti-institutionalist. This excitement seemed to have been vindicated in 2022 when Timothy Shea, charged (along with Steve Bannon) in the Build the Wall fraud, received a mistrial because of a juror who refused to convict.

The juror did not object to the law, however. He objected to people he liked being tried under it, and this is commonly how jury nullification plays out on the right. According to Ben Feuerherd at Politico, “during the deliberations in Shea’s case, in US district court in Manhattan,

the holdout juror spoke about a “government witch hunt” and accused the other members of the jury of being “liberals,” the New York Times reported at the time.
“Tim Shea is a good man. He doesn’t beat his wife,” the man reportedly said during deliberations. “You just can’t vote to lynch someone.”
The juror also accused the government of bringing the case in a blue state like New York to secure a conviction.

But jury nullification enthusiasts often forget that the practice, when successful, generally conceals the fact that the prosecution has made a very strong case for conviction. Shea, for example, simply got a new trial and, according to Feuerherd, “was later convicted for his role in the scheme and sentenced to more than five years in prison in July 2023. Two of his co-defendants in the case were also sentenced to prison for the fraud.” And Shea’s alleged co-conspirator, Steve Bannon, although convicted and then pardoned by Donald Trump, will be retried for Build the Wall in New York State.

And let’s remember: Trump has lost every case that has come to trial so far, and one involved a jury. I would put money on it (from my private bank account, of course) that he will lose this slush money case too.

Crime is not on the rise. Why do so many Americans think it is?

As we approach the 2024 election, crime is all over the media. Sure, it’s the media’s job to report crime. But if you are a devoted listener of 1010-WINS radio (which covers New York, New Jersey and Long Island), you will notice that other than weather and traffic, crime and policing are key aspects of the broadcast. Out of the top six news headlines on the WINS site today, five were violent crimes and the sixth was the ongoing student protest at Columbia. And if there aren’t enough crimes in the New York metropolitan area (oh, for the days of “Headless Body in Topless Bar”), reporters detail unusual and often grisly crimes that have happened hundreds or thousands of miles away. In the past week, the station has reported a gun battle in Louisiana that left three police wounded and one suspect dead; a fugitive former Oregon police officer accused of murder and kidnapping taking his own life; a robbery and carjacking in suburban West Haven, Connecticut.

Given that crime is a staple element of tabloid news, coverage of local tragedies, rather than seeming to occur at a distance, brings the specter of mayhem into communities that experience little or no crime. As Gideon Taffe of Media Matters reported in January 2023, Fox produced “a misleading narrative” about the United States being in the grip of a crime wave in 2022, devoted 11 percent of its reporting to the topic in advance of the midterm election. But that crime wave was “largely created by its own relentless coverage,” Taffe writes. “By focusing on racist stereotypes, smearing progressive prosecutors and pushing conspiracy theories, Fox made crime one of the biggest perceived ailments in the country and pushed far-right policy prescriptions ahead of the election.”

The only sane policy responses, Fox hosts proclaimed, were those embraced by the Party of Trump. And these “draconian solutions” meant a return to policies forcibly ended in the courts as civil rights violations:

Fox personalities began arguing for a return to “Broken Windows” policing, which involves aggressive enforcement and harsher sentences for lower level crimes. In reality, there is no evidence that this strategy works as a deterrent to reduce crime, and other heavy-handed policing tactics based on the broken windows theory have been found to significantly discriminate against Black Americans and other minority groups.

But as Taffe also pointed out, crime in the United States has dramatically decreased — 73 percent, to be precise — over the last thirty years. 2023 saw the biggest national drop in murder rates ever recorded (6 percent) and murders in cities dropped 12 percent. Yes, there are periodic crime spikes. (There was one during the pandemic). But overall, the trend is towards less crime.

The Atlantic’s crime reporter, Jeff Asher, pointed out that less crime doesn’t mean no crime. Yet “declining murder does not mean there were not thousands upon thousands of these tragedies this year,” he wrote on his Substack:

Nor does it mean that there was an acceptable level of gun violence, even in places seeing rapid declines. It simply means that the overall trend was extraordinarily positive and should be recognized as such.
Detroit is on pace to have the fewest murders since 1966 and Baltimore and St Louis are on pace for the fewest murders in each city in nearly a decade. Other cities that saw huge increases in murder between 2020 and 2022, like Milwaukee, New Orleans and Houston, are seeing sizable declines in 2023. There are still cities like Memphis and Washington, DC, that are seeing increasing murders in 2023, but those cities are especially notable because they are the outliers this year, not the norm.

Yet Americans don’t seem to believe that their world is safer than ever.

In February 2024, the Pew Research Center took the American electorate’s temperature. This nonpartisan, nonprofit research group identified 20 issues that will be priorities when voters decide between President Joe Biden and Unindicted Co-conspirator Number One in November. (Israel-Palestine didn’t even make the list, although perhaps it might now, amidst the campus demonstrations that are in the news around the country.) A whopping 73 percent saw the economy as the top priority for any president, outstripping the next item (defending against terrorism) by a good 10 points.

“Reducing crime” was in the seven spot, at 58 percent, which may seem like OK news on the surface. But in fact, concern about personal safety, up 11 points in a little more than three years, is trending in the opposite direction of actual crimes. While the big shift has been among Republicans and “Republican leaners” — from 38 percent to 68 percent since Joe Biden was inaugurated in 2021 — 47 percent of Democrats also think crime should be a priority.

Here’s the puzzle: analysis of crime statistics — also by Pew — argue that there are fewer crimes committed in the United States today than there have been in any year since the early 1990s. Then you may recall, politicians “solved” the crime problem, not through full employment, education or welfare, but with harsh sentences, incarcerating a whole generation of mostly Black men for decades. Things peaked at about 2 million people incarcerated and pending trial in 2010 and has since fallen by about 400,000 souls.

So the fact that public opinion is so out of synch with crime statistics puts Democrats in a tricky position for November: they must defend policies that are working, but that large numbers of Americans, including Democrats, believe are failing. But trying to counter the narrative on the right is difficult, because these policies are counterintuitive to what Americans have believed for generations. For example, if the prison population is dropping, and the United States is becoming safer, that might mean that crime rates and incarceration rates are independent variables in determining overall rates of crime. Or it might mean that incarceration causes crime. Some policymakers did believe that prison transformed petty criminals into hardened, violent felons — hence the creation of a separate prison system for juvenile offenders beginning at the turn of the 20th century in Illinois and Colorado.

Here’s what I would do if I were the Democrats.

Instead of allowing Republicans to take over the narrative, I would look for the programs that work and that have contributed to reducing crime. I would create a series of advertisements featuring police officers talking about why community policing methods work; mothers talking about how “second chance” diversion programs turned their kids around; programs that support students in graduating from high school and going on to college; men and women who finished technical training, or high school and college degrees, while incarcerated started afresh; and formerly incarcerated men working as violence interrupters.

These are just a few of programs that produce thousands of success stories—and reductions in crime. That story is happening now, and American voters need to know it.

The agony of the gasbag

Editor’s note: The following first appeared in Political Junkie, Claire’s newsletter.

I didn’t expect to learn much from week one of People of the State of New York v. Donald J. Trump, otherwise known as the Stormy Daniels Hush Money Case.

Why? Because as anyone who has ever reported on it knows, the jury phase is normally dull for everyone involved. The last time I was called (10 years ago in Brooklyn), the judge wouldn’t let us read, which — as any of my former therapists could tell you — was agonizing for me. As the attorney and judge questioned other people from the jury pool, the court officer marched around yelling at anyone peeking surreptitiously at a magazine or book under their coat.

If my compulsion is reading, Donald Trump’s is talking. He is, as my father used to put it, a “gasbag,” a person who is almost physically unable to enter a public space without dominating it verbally. But Trump is extreme in this regard: grammatically mangled, cognitively garbled, dishonest, unpunctuated and verbally inaccurate, his declarations are a firehose of gasbaggery. And one of the benefits of filling the air with your own opinions is that you never have to listen to, or think about, anyone else’s views.

So one of the last week’s pleasures was that Donald Trump was not allowed to speak in the courtroom unless spoken to. This meant that he was also forced to listen to whatever anyone said about him without responding to them, an exercise that will continue this week. He had to do this for five days in a row, except when he was asleep, a phenomenon that some Democrats believe will neutralize Trump’s attacks on President Biden as “Sleepy Joe” and a “low energy” person.

One guess as to why Trump nods off is that when he can’t talk, play golf or watch TV he is bored; another is that he doesn’t sleep well (look at the bags under his eyes!) But there are other theories. Bess Levin at Vanity Fair believes that, since there is no food or drink allowed in the courtroom, the Former Guy — lacking the dozen or so Diet Cokes that he drinks daily — is in caffeine withdrawal. The Lincoln Project reports that Trump claimed that he wasn’t sleeping — he was praying.

Then there is some super-undignified gossip that, like former wingman Rudy Giuliani, the Big Guy is a gasbag in another sense as well. It’s always hard to know what to make of such things, because it’s such a juvenile thing to talk about, or even whether it is true. Yet these claims have been made in a number of places. Ben Meiselas, co-founder of MeidasTouch and owner of Los Angeles Magazine, affirmed the audible and olfactory evidence of human gas emanating from the defense table in his own publication. Others said Trump was sleeping and farting loudly at the same time.

But let’s return to the man’s verbal gasbaggery. When awake and not in court, Trump still can’t gas at will, because he is subject to yet another gag order from yet another court: the list of people he cannot talk about is growing. In late March, Judge Merchan instructed Trump not to make statements about jurors and witnesses in the case, since we all know that when he does that, it is an invitation to his followers to spend their days barraging these people with death threats. One week later, he expanded that gag order to families, when the Former Guy publicly attacked Merchan’s daughter, who has worked as a Democratic political consultant but is not involved with this case, on (Failing) Truth Social.

This is important in more than a public safety sense. Trump’s style as a gasbag is to entertain his supporters, not just with familiar conspiracies and projections of doom, but to populate these stories with new characters, preferably Black, Latino, female and immigrants who have made good. In the absence of being able to attack real people, Trump will be forced to rely on a stale, self-pitying conspiracy narrative that has no antagonists in it to keep his supporters’ attention.

It may even be the case that this trial will defy those doomsayers and be fairly normal and straightforward. After all the hand-wringing about how hard it would be to seat a jury, Judge Juan Merchan has managed to frog-march all the attorneys — Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg and Donald Trump’s defense team, Todd Blanche and Susan Necheles — through jury selection in five days. That’s about how long it usually takes: in fact, in the murder case I was called for, I was dismissed late on day 5, and I know jury selection went into at least a sixth day. With a full jury and six alternates seated, we should have opening statements sometime today.

But if Trump naps today, nightmares in other venues await. NBC reports that on Friday, Attorney General Letitia James filed a motion to void Trump’s $175 million bond in the civil fraud case she won in February. You may recall that Trump was initially assessed $454 million by the court (in addition to the $85 million or so that he owes E. Jean Carroll), and had to put that money in escrow pending appeal. On April 1, the appeals court permitted him to post bond for less than half of that sum: his lawyers claimed that the larger bond was simply not possible to obtain.

As it turns out, however, Former President Wile E. Coyote cannot just make a deal with Acme Insurance, Inc.: a bond company must be licensed by the State of New York, and it must prove that it has the assets to pay out should Trump lose his appeal. According to James’s filing, Knight Specialty Insurance Company, Trump’s guarantor of last resort, doesn’t meet either of these criteria; nor is it in control of the Trump assets that supposedly secure the bond against default.

Should the appeals court share James’s concerns with KSIC’s obvious lack of solvency (they only have $136 million cash on hand), it could revoke the bond as soon as today. This would put the Trump civil litigation team (as opposed to the criminal litigation team working in Judge Merchan’s courtroom) back on the clock to come up with the cash before the state of New York starts seizing golf courses and gilded elevators.

A second, related, nightmare is something I have written about before: the Trump campaign is very short on cash, in part because of the candidate’s massive legal expenses. Trump’s people have notified down ballot Republican campaigns that if they use the Former Guy’s image or name in their own fundraising appeals, they now need to send him 5 percent of the take, which is a lot for some of these smaller campaigns. As Amanda Marcotte quipped at Salon, making the analogy to a mob-style kickback, the message is: “Nice shop you got there, shame if something would happen to it.”

But I was curious as to whether this was a normal arrangement, so I called a Republican operative I know who agreed to discuss it off the record. “I have a very hard time seeing how this could be enforced,” this person began. First, if you are a former president of the United States, “You can’t own your own likeness and image,” which means you can’t charge people for it either. Furthermore, it will be difficult for the Republican National Committee or the Trump campaign to track every mailing, flyer and campaign ad sent out by hundreds of down ballot candidates.

And if it looks like the Trump people can enforce it? Then, candidates “are just going to drop the Trump name and image,” my source said. In my view, this is perilous, since not having a robust connection to state and local campaigns is one of the things that may have stood between Hillary Clinton and the presidency in 2016. In a tight race with candidates that are not generating enthusiasm, when voters come to the polls to support local and state candidates they know and care about, they link those people to the national ticket, and cast their presidential vote on a party line.

My source also pointed out that Republicans in safe seats are mostly raising money to give away anyway: as I understand it, this is the only reason anyone pays attention to Marjorie Taylor Greene at all — she is a monster fundraiser. Those candidates will redirect a portion of the money they normally give to House and Senate colleagues to Trump, something else that could also affect tight Senate, and particularly House races.

This is where the macro picture does not look good. Republicans in tight Senate races “are already way behind on fundraising,” my source said. “If candidates in contested races are also giving 5 percent to Trump, it will definitely hurt them.” In particular, it will hurt them if these funds come from so-called “house files,” lists of names not rented, but generated and owned by the candidate, which represent pure profit for a campaign. “He wants the money from that too,” my source said.

And here’s the thing: will the money Trump is demanding go to his campaign, or will it go to funding the platoons of lawyers trying to keep Trump solvent and out of jail? Or is there really any difference, since Trump is already spending Super PAC money that should be used on the campaign and for down ballot candidates, to pay his legal bill? As we know, the Former Guy has bled Save America leadership PAC for almost $60 million that represents media buys, organizers, canvassers and other campaign expenses. And the burn rate is already high. According to Jessica Piper at Politico, “Trump’s official campaign committee spent just over $3.7 million in March, with travel expenses, followed by payroll, occupying its biggest expenditure categories.”

But what is it being spent on? Rallies of committed Trump voters, not recruiting new voters. According to my source, the networks of campaign workers that ought to be emerging now to support a Trump presidency are not being organized and established. That costs money. “Trump’s not broke,” my source said, “but he has no campaign offices anywhere.” And the GOP in Michigan and Pennsylvania, two vital swing states, “are broke.” By contrast, “Biden already has a bunch of campaign offices up and running. This matters in close elections.”

In other words, what we may be seeing in the press coverage is a kind of demented Harold Hill candidacy, a fake Music Man running around the country selling a presidential campaign that doesn’t really exist. As we start to see President Biden’s numbers tick up, just remember: much of what happens in a successful presidential campaign is invisible, even in a media atmosphere that seems to make everything hyper visible.

Britt’s SOTU response contained several lies and one truth

Editor’s note: The following first appeared in Political Junkie, Claire Bond Potter’s newsletter.

I went to bed before Katie Britt, the junior senator from Alabama, responded to President Joe Biden’s State of the Union address. I know—it wasn’t very intrepid of me. But SOTU rebuttals are never good. It’s also never clear to me who the audience is for them. A handful of political junkies like us? The twelve civilians from the “other party” who tuned in to a president they dislike and distrust? Unaffiliated voters doing their homework eight months early?

Britt’s speech was no exception to the rule when it came to quality, delivery and information. We did learn, however, that the GOP is pivoting away from hate, and back to its happy place, hate and fear. And who has more to fear than The American Mom? If it isn’t inflation, Harvard, trans girls on the volleyball court, and a culture that feminizes their husbands and sons, it is (wait for it): bloodthirsty, undocumented immigrants who stream across the border for one thing, and one thing only: raping and killing American women.

The American Mom, when she appears on a conservative political stage, is always a white woman. Fear is her heritage and her birthright, and fear of sexual assault by men of color her guiding star. That has been historically true in American conservative politics. It is true now. The American Mom never appears in a political setting to tell you everything is ok and you can relax.

And it kind of works. In the last two election cycles, the majority of white women have repeatedly voted Republican: 55 percent in 2020, slightly more than in 2016. Fears in 2022 that Republicans were steadily losing that demographic turned out to be unfounded.

That was before Dobbs unleashed the whirlwind. Now, The American Mom is beginning to realize that the Republican Party might be her worst enemy. Amanda Eid nearly died in Texas when, after 18 months of fertility treatments (that some Republicans are also endangering) doctors refused to perform a medical procedure to remove a fetus that was dying inside her. A 13-year-old in Clarksdale, Mississippi, gave birth to her rapist’s baby, because there are no abortion providers in her state, and her family is too poor to travel. Maternal death rates in states that restrict abortion access were already 62 percent higher in 2020 than in states that didn’t restrict. Now, an expectant mother has to imagine driving or flying to another state if something goes wrong, regardless of how far along in her pregnancy she is.

Let’s be clear: Katie Britt is not a dummy, nor is she “just a Mom.” Among other things, Britt is a high-powered lawyer, a skilled political operative and the former comms director for the man she replaced, Alabama Senator Richard Shelby. She was also a far better choice than the person she defeated for the Republican nomination in 2022. That was election denier Congressman Mo Brooks, one of the central figures in the January 6 insurrection. Brooks is a proponent of the “independent state legislature theory” that would allow states to nullify federal legislation and replace actual votes cast by actual Americans in a presidential election with a vote by a partisan state legislature.

All I am saying is that Katie Britt is really not the worst that Alabama has to offer us. Yet despite all of her professional accomplishments, she chose to veil them and take American Mom as her brand. Her campaign catchphrase was Momma on a Mission, and the theme of the SOTU response was: Katie Britt is a senator, but really a wife and a Mom. (Quiz: when was the last time you heard a man run for office with these phrases: “But really — I’m A Dad,” “Determined Daddy,” or “Fearless Father.”) Britt even stole Biden’s (admittedly worn out) story of the family sitting around the kitchen table solving problems, and the "empty chair” Bidenism, this time signaling a family member killed by an immigrant, or fentanyl, or a sex trafficker, or all of the above.

Britt’s speech is a preview of how the GOP plans to run the 2024 campaign: every vile GOP policy will be broadcast to women cloaked in the pink haze of maternal love. The American Mom suffers, it is her job to suffer, and only the GOP feels her pain. Britt reassures us that education and success do not have to make a woman less of a Mom or less submissive to men. Here, the green dress that bears a close resemblance to the uniform worn by Serena Joy on Hulu’s dystopian series about Christian misogyny, The Handmaid’s Tale, was a nice touch.

And what causes the American Mom more suffering than anything else? That the Biden administration has “invited” undocumented immigrants to rape, murder and traffic her daughters. Elevating the recent, tragic murder of white Georgia nursing student, Lakin Riley, allegedly by an undocumented man of color, Britt reintroduced a time-honored trope that will resonate in southern states where the GOP needs to shore up support, like Virginia, Florida and Georgia.

Let me emphasize: the idea that white women are always in danger from men of color, wherever they come from, is categorically false. Black, Native American and Latina women are at higher risk for rape and a much higher risk of murder than white women; 80 percent of rapes are committed, not by a stranger, but by someone known to the victim; and 57 percent of rapists are white (an additional 27 percent are Black, not Latino.)

In other words, if the GOP’s proposal is to deal with rape by shutting the border, they are not really interested in preventing rape. We knew that.

The racism of this theme was then compounded by Britt’s misrepresentation of a lurid sex trafficking story meant to stigmatize both Mexicans and Joe Biden. The Post’s Glenn Kessler characterized the grisly ordeal suffered by Karla Jacinto Romero as the “centerpiece” of the GOP “rebuttal to Biden’s address.”

I won’t tell Romero’s story here. It’s genuinely awful. But here’s the thing: Romero was not held captive and repeatedly assaulted in the United States. It happened in Mexico. Even if you presume that the US government controls events in Mexico, Romero’s ordeal occurred during the George W. Bush administration. The victim herself says that there were no drug cartels involved, and she was never trafficked across the border. You can read more details about her story here. Despite all evidence to the contrary, Britt insists the story is true.

What does all of this tell us? First, that the place of white women in the Republican Party comes from a conflicted and confused set of demands: do they have power or do they not? (The answer is both.)

This is why Britt’s speech was so easy to parody, and why parody can serve as the most incisive analysis of a policy speech that is not one.

Two days later, in the Saturday Night Live cold open, Scarlett Johansson (who also didn’t write her speech) sums up the GOP White Woman Strategy by introducing herself as a senator whose job is to serve the people of the “great state of Alabama. But tonight, I’ll be auditioning for the part of scary mom. And I’ll be performing an original monologue called: This country is hell. You see,” Johansson continues, “I’m not just a senator. I’m a wife, a mother, and the craziest bitch in the Target parking lot.” Later in the speech, she promises, “like any mom,” she will “pivot into a shockingly violent story about sex trafficking.” At another point, the screen transforms into a Home Shopping Network template, and Johansson offers the cross she is wearing around her neck for sale.

It’s a brilliant sketch, not just about how Britt’s speech failed, but also — like the former Confederacy under Jim Crow — in its central truth: there is no place for women in the GOP but as enablers of white men and as victims.

Believe it or not, this idea annoyed numerous Republican women. Former Trump aide Alyssah Farah Griffin tweeted: “I do not understand the decision to put her in a KITCHEN for one of the most important speeches she’s ever given,” while conservative podcaster Allie Beth Stuckey characterized Britt’s speech as “hard to watch.” Backstage, it wasn’t so polite. An anonymous GOP strategist growled: "everyone's f---ing losing it. It's one of our biggest disasters ever."

Weirdly, I think Britt’s speech would have worked if they had chosen another vessel — say, Kari Lake, Marjorie Taylor Greene (who would have to work on her reading skills), or Marcia Blackburn —to give it. At least it might have seemed authentic.

However, one of the most delightfully contemptuous responses came from Ann Coulter, who has managed to make it through an almost 40-year career as a conservative pundit without allowing her femininity to compromise her rage (and vice versa.)

Once an enthusiastic Trump supporter, less than a year after he was elected, Coulter broke with him over his failure to enact a radical anti-immigration agenda. Since then, she has also vigorously refuted election denialism. As a consequence, she has been virtually blacklisted from every conservative forum that MAGA dominates, and relegated to Substack like the rest of us.

Coulter promotes the same politics she always did, though, and remains adamantly anti-immigrant, legal or illegal. So while she may have approved in principle of Britt’s lengthy, and false, anti-immigrant rant, to Counter, the medium was the message. The idea of women as living in fear of sexual assault and Britt disavowing her own intelligence and authority as a Senator pissed Coulter off mightily.

Characterizing Britt on her Substack, Unsafe, as “estrogen-laden” and “tearful,” Coulter quipped that the GOP chose a kitchen for the speech “presumably because a nursery school wasn’t available.” She also pointed out that no white Republican male has been asked to respond to a Democratic SOTU since 2012: “WE’RE NOT THE PARTY OF IDENTITY POLITICS, YOU UTTER IMBECILES.”

It’s vintage Coulter. You have to admit she has a point. By mining the small number of women and people of color in the party for high profile events, the GOP is implicitly saying that race and gender do matter, even though all their policies say that these things don’t matter.

Coulter also lectured Britt for being girly: grown-up Republicans, she lectured, don’t use diminutives like “Katie.” In fact, Democrats of both genders do use diminutives, which — I am a longtime student in the School of Coulter Studies — actually reinforces her point, because Republicans aren’t Democrats. Republicans can’t expect voters to think that their policies are distinctive if they don’t present themselves as distinct.

Politics, Coulter argues, should be politics, and sugar-coating hard messages is dumb — particularly if you are trying to frighten people about the future. As she snarls:

For the love of God, quit it already with the kitchens, dining room tables, fireplaces, living rooms, sofas, or anything else warm, fuzzy and cozy. It’s politics, for crying out loud. Normal people want politicians working to make their lives better, not emoting with us — least of all with the completely unbelievable story about her “sitting around the kitchen table” trying to figure out how her family can ever get by on her $174,000 base salary, PLUS premium health care for her whole family, PLUS a gigantic pension (which no longer exists anywhere in America except for teachers).

OK — cops, firefighters and other public employees too. But the basic point stands — and can I add something? If that is indeed their kitchen, Mr. and Mrs. Wesley Britt absolutely have enough money to replace that ugly brown tile. You won’t say it, Ann, but I will.

The big takeaway from this little episode? That the Republican Party knows it cannot afford to lose even a few points of white women’s votes in November 2024.

And yet lose white women they surely will, because the GOP’s extreme position on abortion has put everything from birth control, to IVF, to actually living through a wanted pregnancy on the table. They have been losing white women when abortion is on the ballot. And don’t think the Democrats are not going to hammer at this issue from now until election day. The best part? We really believe it!

Britt gave us a big grin at one point and said that the GOP supports IVF. But why should anyone believe them when there was no concerted campaign to eliminate IVF in the first place — and yet a Supreme Court judge in Britt’s very own state tried to do exactly that? As IVF clinics across the state shut down, with couples in mid-treatment and embryo transfers scheduled, the Alabama legislature had to quickly pass a bill protecting service providers and patients. Governor Kay Ivey sprinted to her desk to sign it.

The GOP can’t put the rabbit of reproductive rights back in the hat. Logically, the judge was right. If your position is that human life begins when the sperm and egg fuse (that is Britt’s, and the position of the GOP’s Life at Conception Act), then the survival of frozen embryos is just as much the state’s concern as a fetus nearing viability.

And yet Republicans seem not to understand the implications of the laws they pass for real people. For example, the Alabama state senator who hastily wrote the bill to protect IVF admitted that the Republicans have no idea what they are doing. "A lot of people say conception, a lot of people say implantation, a lot of people say heartbeat," Dr. Tim Melson said on the floor. "I wish I had an answer.”

Furthermore, extremist rants about immigration may backfire when their cruelty exceeds the protected space of a MAGA rally or Facebook page. Although Donald Trump’s hatred for people of color and race-mixing appears to be genuine, that isn’t true of most Americans. The 2020 census reported over 33 million Americans identified as multi-racial: this means that across party lines, exponentially more white people have people of color in their immediate families.

Let’s even assume that the white women who vote Republican share Trump’s view. Think about it. Should you terrify women about the imminence of rape at the same time as the Democrats are there to remind them that the GOP is working hard to eliminate access to the morning after pill, or any kind of abortion that might result from that sexual assault?

I have an answer — and I doubt it’s one the Republican Party can hear.

SCOTUS opens the door to dictatorship

Editor’s note: The following first appeared in Political Junkie, Claire Bond Potter's newsletter.

Monday’s top political news? The Supreme Court of the United States decided unanimously that the state of Colorado (and by extension, all other states) must put Donald Trump on the 2024 presidential ballot.

But it wasn’t unanimous in spirit, as I will explain below.

The decision itself isn’t a surprise. I expected it, and have been skeptical from the get-go that attempts to exclude Trump from the ballot were a good use of anyone’s time and money. Given the fragile state of our democracy, and the prevalence of conspiracy theories and 2020 election denialism in the Republican Party, it was unlikely that, however poorly Trump’s lawyers argued the case, Chief Justice John Roberts would deny millions of people the opportunity to vote for a dangerous cluck. Essentially, this is what Associate Justice Amy Coney Barrett says in her separate (and enigmatic) concurring opinion.

As an institution, the court already stands accused of micro-engineering the 2000 election by stopping the vote count in Florida and making George W. Bush president. It seems like this happened only yesterday, but trauma is like that. Only one member of today’s court remains from the jurists who made that decision. You guessed it: it’s Associate Justice Clarence “Bags O’ Cash” Thomas.

Furthermore, there’s the important question of how a decision to exclude Trump from the ballot could backfire in future elections. It seemed more than possible that should states be permitted to expel presidential candidates from the ballot, the GOP, which has absolute power in some states, would attempt to engineer a 2028 – or even a 2024 – election with no Democrat on the presidential line at all.

Nevertheless, the case asked an important question. Does Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, intended in 1868 to prevent the return of Confederate rebels to power in a government they had tried to overturn, apply to Trump, who summoned a mob to sack the Capitol and prevent Joe Biden from becoming president?

This is what Section 3 says:

No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.

Trump v. Anderson was argued on February 8, 2023: as a quick aside since a bunch of other Trump cases are headed to SCOTUS in the coming weeks and months, the Supreme Court can clearly make a decision quickly if it wants and needs to (the people of Colorado vote today.) You can read the decision here if you want. It’s only six pages long, which is what happens when all the Justices concur and, more importantly, when they have less than a month to do their homework.

The question at hand was this: was Trump “disqualified” from holding the office of president, as the Supreme Court of Colorado had affirmed in January, because he "engaged in insurrection" against the Constitution of the United States, thus violating his oath "as an officer of the United States" to "support" the Constitution.

In other words, does the president fit in one of these named categories? By “officer,” did the framers of the amendment mean any officer of the government, or (more plausibly, in my view) military officer? And if so, is the commander in chief a military officer?

But the rightwing majority of the court — Roberts, Thomas, and Associate Justices Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh — evaded that question. Instead, they focused on the language pertaining to who should enforce Section 3: “the Constitution makes Congress, rather than the States, responsible for enforcing Section 3 against federal officeholders and candidates.” To answer that question, the court directs us to Section 5, “which enables Congress, subject of course to judicial review, to pass ‘appropriate legislation’ to ‘enforce’ the Fourteenth Amendment.”

What the rightwing majority concludes from this history is that Section 3 permits the states to “disqualify persons holding or attempting to hold state office. But,” they continue, “States have no power under the Constitution to enforce Section 3 with respect to federal offices, especially the Presidency” (emphasis mine.) Why? Because the American people as a whole elect the president, and the Fourteenth Amendment does not specifically reserve the power of governing the election of federal officeholders to the states.

As the majority argues, there is no “tradition of state enforcement of Section 3 against federal officeholders or candidates in the years following ratification of the Fourteenth Amendment,” which leads to the conclusion that states have never believed that they had this power. Finally, if states had the power to enforce Section 3, they were likely to do it differently, because they have different laws governing elections, which would not only be incoherent, but also create chaos by “changing the behavior of voters, parties, and States across the country, in different ways and at different times.”

In other words, although the Constitution also makes the states responsible for running their own elections, the states cannot enforce a key provision of the Constitution about who might not be eligible to run.

So five rightwing SCOTUS judges just exempted the presidency, and only the presidency, from Section 3, making it legally possible for the commander-in-chief of the armed forces to attempt to stay in office by force. Which is exactly what Trump tried to do on January 6, 2021.

But wait, you are asking: Aren’t there six conservative justices?

Why yes, and this majority decision seems to have put Associate Justice Amy Comey Barrett in a tizzy. Allowing Trump to stay on the ballot in all 50 states was a “choice,” she argues, and a good one given how fragile our political culture is. What she doesn’t argue is that the Constitution required the solution that her colleagues devised. But she doesn’t say why.

Instead, Barrett gives a little lecture about how everyone needs to calm the fuck down, or however People of Praise Catholics express that sentiment. “In my judgment,” Barrett writes:

This is not the time to amplify disagreement with stridency. The Court has settled a politically charged issue in the volatile season of a Presidential election. Particularly in this circumstance, writings on the Court should turn the national temperature down, not up. For present purposes, our differences are far less important than our unanimity: All nine Justices agree on the outcome of this case. That is the message Americans should take home.

Keep an eye on Girlfriend. She’s beginning to look like a possible swing vote on questions of democracy. Lessons we might draw from this weird semi-concurrence? Well-educated women really hate Donald Trump. Also, if Trump wanted a lackey, he probably shouldn’t have breathed covid all over Barrett’s kidswhen he announced her nomination in 2020.

Then Associate Justices Elena Kagan, Sonia Sotomayor and Ketanji Brown Jackson sound the alarm. In their concurrence, they argue that if the court’s rightwing is correct in its conclusions, it has not only misread the Constitution, but done so in a potentially disastrous way.

Excluding the presidency from Section 3 makes it legal for a proven insurrectionist to run for the presidency, or stay in it once he is there.

Brilliantly, the liberal minority points out their conservative colleagues’ hypocrisy by leading with a quote from Dobbs: “If it is not necessary to decide more to dispose of a case, then it is necessary not to decide more.”

As the minority points out, Roberts, Thomas, Alito and Kavanaugh avoided the question at hand, and opened a big, ugly can of worms instead. By “deciding not just this case, but challenges that might arise in the future” and “insulat[ing] this Court and petitioner from future controversy,” the minority points out, barring an act of Congress, no one can be barred from running for president, even if they metaphorically wipe their behinds on the Constitution.

The situation that the court has now conjured is this: what if Trump, or someone else (think: JD Vance) tries it again? Do these tyrants and tyrants-in-waiting, when they are successfully defeated at the ballot box, then get to keep running for president and inciting riots until they take the government by force?

Furthermore, directing Congress to enact legislation to specifically exclude offices, if any, from the terms of Section 3, ignores the fact that Section 3 already gives Congress a role, but a limited one: to remedy, and nothing else.

In other words, in the name of securing democracy, the court’s extreme right has done the opposite: potentially insulating the presidency from the authority of any other branch of government, legal entity or the voters themselves. “The American people have the power to vote for and elect candidates for national office, and that is a great and glorious thing,” the liberal minority asks:

The men who drafted and ratified the Fourteenth Amendment, however, had witnessed an 'insurrection [and] rebellion' to defend slavery. They wanted to ensure that those who had participated in that insurrection, and in possible future insurrections, could not return to prominent roles. Today, the majority goes beyond the necessities of this case to limit how Section 3 can bar an oath-breaking insurrectionist from becoming President. Although we agree that Colorado cannot enforce Section 3, we protest the majority’s effort to use this case to define the limits of federal enforcement of that provision.

“Because we would decide only the issue before us, we concur only in the judgment,” they conclude.

Now, let me say: I have never believed that this court would save us from Donald Trump. But it is graphically clear: there is no majority on the court that will protect our democracy, or prevent a tyrant from seizing and holding onto power. There’s only us now.

Which means it is left to “we the people” to save the republic by voting Democratic and organizing our friends to do so as well.

Get to work, friends.

Are Trump sneakers a new way to launder money?

Editor’s note: The following first appeared in Political Junkie, Claire Bond Potter's newsletter.

Only hours after hearing from Judge Arthur Engoron that he owed the state of New York $345 million plus interest (which could amount to almost $100 million), Donald Trump went to Philadelphia to launch a new line of Trump-branded sneakers. You can buy these shoes in “Red Wave” red or “POTUS 45” white for $199, or you can spring for the special, limited edition “Never Surrender” gold for $399.

Except you can’t, because 1,000 pairs of Never Surrender kicks allegedly sold out in two hours. You can see all this junk here (including Victory 47 men’s cologne and women’s perfume for a mere $99 a bottle. Free shipping included.)

Hilariously, each item says in small type underneath the image of what you are purchasing: “The images shown are for illustration purposes only and may not be an exact representation of the product.” Buy two or more items and you will receive a free pair of shoelaces, “an exclusive Trump superhero charm,” and an invitation to a sneaker launch party: “Date TBD. (No guarantee President Trump will attend.)”

I would bet “President” Trump will not attend. First, because he hates being around ordinary people; and second, because he has a history of offering people stuff and then hoping they forget. For several years — in the run-up to the 2020 election and then raising money for his legal defense fundSave America PAC after he was defeated by Joe Biden, the Former Guy has advertised a promotion where a small dollar donor is chosen to have a meal with Trump: no one has ever won.

Here’s another tidbit: the small print at the bottom of the webpage says that these trinkets are marketed by CIC Ventures LLC, which has licensed Trump’s name, but that “Trump sneakers are not designed, manufactured, or sold by Donald J. Trump, the Trump Organization, or any of their respective affiliates or principles.” Further down: “GetTrumpSneakers.com is not political and has nothing to do with any political campaign.”

Yet CIC Ventures LLC (“CIC” surely stands for “Commander in Chief”) is located in West Palm Beach, Florida, less than five miles from Mar-a-Lago. A little sleuthing reveals that the street address, 3505 Summit Blvd, West Palm Beach, FL 33406, is otherwise known as the Trump International Golf Club. But I’m sure it has nothing to do with Trump and his campaign, right?

The cons that Donald Trump has run on the suckers who do business with him, from bankers to tourists to voters, are so vast and various that they are hard to count. No pocket is too small to pick (go to the Trump Organization Store, if you don’t believe me.)

Last Friday’s judgement (which, if you add the $4 million apiece Don Jr. and Eric were fined, and the two E. Jean Carroll cases for $88.3 million, come up to almost half a billion dollars before legal fees) was the biggest rebuke to date.

The first setback was the Trump University scam, decided against the Fraudster-in-Chief in 2016 for a mere $25 million. Founded in 2004, TU promised students that they would learn how to make money in real estate from instructors and materials “hand-picked” by Trump.

That, of course, was a lie.

But the lie tells you as much about our regulatory system as it does about Trump and the poor fools whose pockets he picked.

Although the state of New York warned Trump University from the beginning that it couldn’t advertise itself as a “university,” because it had no state license to do so, despite mounting student complaints, regulators did not shut it down until 2011.

If, as Aaron Rupar put it, when Donald Trump steals, he steals from everybody, he can do that because the state has not had the resources (or perhaps the will) to follow every Trump con where it leads.

As Trump University lumbered to a well-deserved death, Trump took to marketing all kinds of other garbage by putting his name in it. There was Trump Ice (2005-2010; it’s bottled water), Trump Vodka (2005-2011; it’s still sold in Israel because it’s kosher), and Trump Steaks (May-July 2007; “wholly mediocre,” according to Gourmet.)

So it’s hard to imagine if you actually wear Trump sneakers they won’t fall apart instantly, although for those who aren’t up-to-date: many sneakers are made to be collected, not worn. Sneaker collecting is now a multi-billion dollar industry: a pair of Nike x Yeezys that Kanye West (now Ye) wore to the 2008 Grammys were sold in 2019 for $1.8 million.

You can see where this is going: it’s a classic Don Con.

Trump either licenses his name for a product, hotel or service; or he markets an inferior product under the Trump brand. The inference is that because everything he touches turns to gold, that people who purchase these things can either enjoy a taste of Trump-style luxury, or they will have an item that is an excellent investment.

But you may ask yourself — how can 1,000 pairs of Trump sneakers, even at $399 a pair (that would be about $400,000, math-challenged friends), help a man who is at least $500 million down, with ten months in the year to go?

Well, it doesn’t, unless the sneakers, cologne and whatever other products follow are a vehicle, not for making money, but hiding it.

Let me explain.

The Trump Organization was founded as a real estate firm. In many ways, that’s still what it is, although the company no longer builds, but mostly manages their own and other people’s properties.

And what do we know about real estate? It’s one of the main vehicles for laundering stolen and illicitly earned money, which is why on February 7, 2024, the US Treasury rolled out a new set of regulations requiring all-cash purchases of real estate to reveal their owners.

Between 2016 and 2021, a minimum $2.6 billion was laundered through real estate deals in the US alone, with New York and Miami as the epicenters. By 2019, trillions of pounds’ worth of London real estate were also “washing dirty money clean,” as an old friend of mine (now deceased) who worked as an agent for Russian oligarchs told me.

The point of money laundering is this: your investments don’t have to make money. If you have an income stream that you cannot legally reveal, putting it into money losing enterprises is as good as anything else, because otherwise you would have no access to that money at all.

And the history of the Trump organization is the history of losing money.

Let me float this idea.

Trump now has a money problem. It isn’t just legal judgements that are soaking up his available cash and bleeding his various PACs and Super PACs; he spent $50 million in campaign money on legal bills in 2023 and is on track to spend much more in 2024, because appeals are more expensive than the original defense.

The other problem is not just that Trump and his family will no longer be in charge of the Trump Organization, but that Judge Engoron imposed another penalty: an independent court monitor.

This means they can’t move money around inside the corporation.

In other words, for the first time ever, there will be someone whose job it is to make sure the Trump Organization not just follows the law, but also doesn’t turn foreign money into American money that can then be legally used for a political campaign.

My take?

Prepare to see a raft of new “businesses” arising in states even less well-regulated than New York, from which cheap Trump-branded goods will be allegedly sold in massive quantities, perhaps never delivered, and the money ending up in the slushiest of funds.

Remember: PACs and Super PACs do not have to say who their donors are — could be pillow companies, sneaker companies — as long as the money is American.

On that note, will it surprise you to learn that, according to the New York Post, the autographed Never Back Down golden sneakers auctioned at SneakerCon went to the Russian CEO of the multi-million dollar company Luxury Bazaar, Roman Scharf?

Of course, it wouldn’t.

Why Joe Biden excels at vanquishing malarkey

After President Joe Biden's official announcement this week that he would run in 2024, I bought my Joe Biden 2024 tee shirt: it has the Dark Brandon graphic you see above. The campaign website page where you can buy it advises: "Best worn while vanquishing Malarkey."

Vanquishing malarkey is a big part of what Biden has done as president. It's a big part of what many of us independent writers have been laser-focused on since Donald Trump announced his presidential candidacy in 2015. The lies and conspiracy theories the GOP has wedded itself to have caused much damage. Still, it is the malarkey that has disabled one of our two major political parties and fatally undermined our political culture.

Malarkey is also one of Joe Biden's favorite words, a catchphrase almost, and—in addition to blowing kisses and shooting finger pistols—he has been using it on the national stage since at least 1983.

READ MORE: Joe Biden's 2024 plans 'must not bank' on Donald Trump: columnist

Words like malarkey are how Biden projects the image of a regular guy—a regular guy from, say, a middle Atlantic suburb in 1965. Many understand malarkey as a synonym for "lie," but that is a mistake. For example, on a television appearance in 2014, as the ever-earnest Republican Speaker, Paul Ryan, attacked the Obama administration's handling of Benghazi (malarkey would fester and become a weapon against Hillary Clinton in 2016), Biden began to smile. Then smile more broadly. Then, as Ryan finished his stem-winder, Biden gave the camera a full-on set of his laughing, white choppers.

"With all due respect," Biden said, "that's a bunch of malarkey."

If you listen to the video clip, Biden did not follow up by saying that Ryan was lying, but rather that "not a single word he says is accurate." Sure, those were still the days when politicians didn't openly call each other liars. But what Biden was characterizing with the word "malarkey" was the overall effect that Ryan was producing by cherry-picking events and administration statements out of context. The series of well-articulated, not unfactual, statements by this pleasant-sounding, sincere young conservative were not just untrue: they were designed to confuse and mislead the public more extensively.

In fact, as we go into the 2024 campaign cycle with a presidential incumbent, highlighting Biden as the "no malarkey" president might be a critical insight into how the Democrats plan to fight a disorganized, fractured Republican party that (if the pattern of the last two election cycles holds) has no platform and no policies beyond trying to end abortion, gender transition, and the freedom to read.

READ MORE: 'Moving rightward' won't help Biden 'win over' voters in 2024: socialist

But it is crucial to have a working definition of our keyword. "Malarkey" describes a communication dynamic rather than false speech. As Trump's 2016 strategist Steve Bannon would say, malarkey is a way to "flood the zone with sh*t." According to Merriam-Webster, it emerged in the United States around 1923 and best translates as exaggerated, foolish, insincere, or nonsense talk designed to deceive by obscuring the truth with word salad. Malarkey, in other words, may contain facts or individual assertions that are true but conveyed in such a way as to conceal the truth.

Although malarkey sounds Irish (indeed, there are apparently Irish people with the surname Malarkey and Mullarkey), the word was likely invented by an Irish-American boxing writer and political cartoonist named Thomas Aloysius ("Tad") Dorgan. Dorgan began his career at the San Francisco Chronicle in 1902 and moved to the New York Journal in 1905. Repurposing words and phrases to describe modern phenomena was one of his talents. According to H.L. Menken, Dorgan was one of the top inventors of slang after 1900: he is said to be responsible for popularizing "applesauce" as a synonym for nonsense, "dumbbell" as slang for a stupid person ("Dumb Dora" for a stupid woman), and "hard-boiled" as a way for describing a tough guy.

The word malarkey is, in many ways, a synonym for "bullsh*t," a term that has not only been used with surprising frequency by journalists in describing Donald Trump but which Trump himself used publicly. During his presidency, he tweeted or retweeted the word 23 times. Often Trump used "bullsh*t" as a modifier in tweets about climate science, but usually as a predicate to another lie. For example, a Trump rebuttal to investigative reporting about his dubious business career and origins as a repo baby: "Bullsh*t-Pop gave me knowledge and a relatively small amount of money (split between brothers and sisters) and I built it into over 9 bill."

Every time he uses the word malarkey, Biden reminds his audience that he is not the crude fat boy in a long red tie over there: he is a connection to a more decent political past where politicians didn't cheat on and dump their wives, make dates with porn stars and then take the hush money as a tax deduction, and say things like "bullsh*t" and "grab 'em by the p*ssy."

But part of what Biden offers a broad spectrum of voters, from moderate conservatives to independents to liberals, is consistency. He promises to make voters' decisions simple by identifying the malarkey and redirecting them to national priorities, about cutting through the confusion, not creating it.

Biden is tapping into an upswell of desire among Americans for a political season and a presidency about reassurance, not fear. MAGA Republicanism's daily shock and awe campaigns have not only pushed the norms of free speech to the limit, but they have also created unprecedented national jitters among a broad spectrum of Americans who want nothing more than to live their lives unthreatened. They want to cast a vote without worrying that bogus charges of election fraud will upend their communities. They want to go to Costco and know they will not bleed out in the condiments aisle. They want to send their children to school and know that their public school district will not be blown up by a front group backed by a right-wing PAC.

Donald Trump, then the MAGA media and political ecosystem that grew up around him, found that the greatest profits were to be found in turning neighbor against neighbor. This wasn't unprecedented in American history, of course. But what was new was that the ideologies that the right was called to conquer were not only foreigners (immigrants, Soviet and Chinese sleeper cells, an international Jewish conspiracy) but other Americans whose freedoms—to exhibit race pride, gender or sexual nonconformity—are misrepresented as inherently ideological and politically threatening to the MAGA minority.

Today, gender, sexuality, and race (what the right calls "woke") are the new Marx. This is literally the case: among others, Vanderbilt University conservative political scientist Carol Swain (who is herself Black) has described critical race theory as "rooted in cultural Marxism; its purpose to divide the world into white oppressors and non-white victims.”)

These culture wars are, in a word, malarkey, a vast smokescreen designed to put people into office who don't believe in government and have no intention of actually governing.

The Republican party was initially stunned by Trump's malarkey, then lined up behind him in 2016 on the assumption that he couldn't possibly be serious. When it turned out he was, and the GOP cut its coat to the latest MAGA fashions, the party's leadership failed to discern that, while the malarkey had only temporarily incapacitated the Democrats, it had caused them to lose sight of the fact that the only point of electoral politics is governing. In other words, if you don't care what government does, you are better off starting a militia than running for office.

Biden has discerned that Republican malarkey has created fault lines, fragmented the party, and worn out the patience of voters, particularly independent and moderate conservatives, who value stability.

And this is not what the GOP plans to deliver as it offers us Trump or DeSantis in 2024. Instead, instability—January 6, the multiple civil and criminal suits faced by a former president who seems to have a hammerlock on the nomination and daily mass shootings, to name a few—is the anvil hanging around the GOP's neck. As Peter Wehner wrote in The Atlantic this week:

Lack of restraint is the essence of the Trump movement. Shattering guardrails is what they find thrilling. But what MAGA adherents forget is that those guardrails exist to protect not only others, but also ourselves from excess, self-indulgence, and self-harm. There’s a reason that temperance—self-mastery, the capacity to moderate inordinate desires, balance that produces internal harmony—is one of the four cardinal virtues.

The extremism, aggression, and lack of restraint in MAGA world are spreading rather than receding. They are becoming more rather than less indiscriminate. Those who are part of that movement, and certainly those who lead it, act as if they’re invincible, as if the rules don’t apply to them, as if they can say anything and get away with anything. That has certainly been true of Trump, and it is often true of those who have patterned themselves after Trump, which is to say, virtually the entire Republican Party.

All of this is another version of malarkey. Trump and his MAGA allies in the GOP have used these weapons to great effect, but in the end, there is a price to pay. You can’t mainline endless malarkey to your own voters and not have them wonder what the United States would look like if you had a president that just governed, passed legislation, and performed ceremonial duties with dignity and humor.

Someone like the president we already have.

READ MORE: 'Frustrated, embarrassed and annoyed': Trump voters are willing to walk away

Let's thank Stormy Daniels for her service

At a campaign rally in Iowa on January 23, 2016, Donald Trump boasted that his voting base was so loyal to him that he "could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn't lose voters, ok? It's like, incredible."

Well, I guess we will soon find out, won't we?

A grand jury convened by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg has voted to indict the former president on what some outlets claim are 34 charges stemming from $130,000 in hush money paid to Stormy Daniels, a pornographic film star, director, and entertainer, whose birth name — which she prefers not to use — is Stephanie Clifford.

As recently as six days ago, at his Waco rally, Trump denied ever having had sex with Clifford, who he referred to as "Horseface." So obviously, he is willing to lose the sex worker vote. But Trump and the nitwit chorus line of GOP politicians also characterize the indictment as "political persecution."

Yet Bragg must have evidence, not just testimony, that the payoff took place, so it will be interesting to see how Trump's lawyers explain what the money was actually for.

Presumably, the Trump campaign believed the Former Guy's candidacy could withstand one sex scandal, but not two. But the tragedy in all of this may have been that they may have been wrong.

In early October 2016, the release of the Access Hollywood tape, in which Trump boasted that he could "grab [women] by the pussy” and get away with it, became a survivable scandal.

By contrast, when Trump's consigliere and fixer, Michael Cohen, paid Daniels for her silence, we had known for decades that Trump was a serial adulterer. Would one infidelity more or less have changed the equation?

I don't think so.

But I do have to wonder if what Trump was potentially embarrassed about, given that he sought to project an image of being universally irresistible to beautiful women, was the implication that he had paid for sex.

While many news outlets characterize the $130,000 payout as covering up an "affair," what Trump and Daniels allegedly did was not what most of us would think of as an affair.

Instead, it was a series of phone conversations (I am guessing phone sex) and sexual encounters over two years. The relationship, which may have had a commercial dimension from the get-go, began with a dinner invitation in 2006, culminating in, as Daniels deadpanned at the Stand Up NY comedy club in Manhattan in 2019, "The worst 90 seconds of my life."

It was a terrible job, girlfriend, but someone had to do it. And I bet Melania would say the same thing if she were being honest.

Besides the fact that our legal system is not yet broken, there are three lessons in this.

First, you should probably never try to shame a successful sex entrepreneur into silence. By definition, a woman who has exposed everything she has to reveal and made a small fortune from it is not subject to convention.

Second, when you have paid off said woman, don't follow up by threatening her: she is a fucking professional.

And third, Daniels would sue if Trump defamed her. If you are a porn star, there is literally no such thing as bad publicity.

Since the news broke about the indictment last night, right before the 6 o’clock news hour, there has been much hysteria about whether Trump's "base" will react by taking to the streets, committing acts of violence and successfully redoubling their efforts to return him to the White House in 2024.

None of these things will happen.

For one, people underestimate the effects of the prosecutions stemming from the January 6, 2021, insurrection. As far as I can tell, almost none of those people believed they would be arrested and charged. Those who thought they were in legal jeopardy believed they would be pardoned in the waning days of the Trump presidency. They know differently now.

Individual acts of violence are possible, but we live in a country where rightwing extremists do these things almost daily. So do they really need a new reason? No.

And finally, the 2024 election. Whether the Trump base consolidates around this indictment, or subsequent one, doesn't matter. We, and the numerous outraged bags of hot air that call themselves Republican politicians, have direct evidence that Donald Trump not only can't win a national election with only his own voters but that at least part of that base has shifted to Ron DeSantis.

That voting constituency isn't enthusiastic about chaos, threats of violence and whether you can be president from jail. In other words, Trump needs moderate Republican and independent voters more than he ever has, and he has less access to them than ever.

Look at the evidence: Trump lost the "I'm-not-crazy-but-vote-Republican" demographic in the 2018 midterms. He lost it in 2020. And all signs point to the fact that, except for a few races where Trump-backed candidates prevailed in 2022, what a Trump endorsement accomplished was to nominate an extremist that even Republicans ran away from. Ask Arizona’s Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs if you don't believe me.

I have been skeptical about a Trump comeback for a long time. This is not because the net is closing on a man who has probably committed far more crimes than he will ever be charged with, but because he is a highly idiosyncratic and disorganized person.

And the best evidence is this: Trump's legal demise has begun with the most unnecessary crime he will be charged with. Why?

Because he was too cheap to pay off Stormy Daniels with his own money and too stupid to admit the error and file corrected forms with the IRS and the Federal Election Commission. Worse? He underestimated a woman who has a far cannier head for business and more courage than he has ever had.

So Stormy Daniels? I salute you, girl. Thank you for your service.

Waco was a pilgrimage, not a rally, for the far-right's newest martyr

Did we need another sign that Donald J. Trump is mobilizing antigovernment white supremacists in his bid for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination? Not really. But we have one.

Over the weekend, and facing criminal indictments in the coming weeks, Trump held his first big campaign rally in Waco, Texas. As Julia Manchester at The Hill characterized it, Waco was “friendly territory” for Trump. This is something that could not be said unequivocally about Austin, Houston or San Antonio, cities with far more liberal voting constituencies.

As (or more) importantly, Waco is a sacred place for the extreme right in the United States, its recent history a dog whistle for white, religious, domestic terrorists.

READ MORE: New analysis points out the real issue with Trump's first rally in Waco

The Branch Davidians

On February 28, 1993, a joint task force of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms (ATF) and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) began to surround a compound outside Waco operated by David Koresh, a charismatic cult leader of the Branch Davidian Church.

Why would the federal government attack a religious group?

US Attorney General Janet Reno knew the Davidians were stockpiling weapons, many illegal for civilians to own. But what is said to have pushed her to confront Koresh and his followers was an informant’s report that children were being sexually abused in the compound.

READ MORE: Experts: Trump is encouraging violence with Waco campaign rally on 30th anniversary of deadly siege

Although Reno, in the face of the post-siege public relations disaster, said she was mistaken about child sexual abuse, in fact, she was not wrong.

Girls as young as 11 or 12 were taken and “married” to Koresh. Children also told investigators they were routinely beaten for minor infractions.

In addition, Koresh was setting the group up for a mass death event, not unlike the 1978 Jonestown Massacre. According to a recent book by Texas journalist Jeff Guinn, the heavily-armed Davidians were not just prepared to die. They welcomed death. Until they were dead, Koresh had told them, they could not be resurrected as God’s army. The last time I looked, both murder and suicide were illegal.

In other words, there were plenty of good reasons to break up a criminal organization under the delusion that its leader and membership were religious visionaries. And so, 30 years ago, after mercilessly harassing the Davidians with loud music and bright lights for weeks in an attempt to get them to surrender voluntarily, the FBI delivered an ultimatum.

Although some cult members had escaped, federal negotiators warned that unless another 20 were released from the compound by 4 pm, they would move armored vehicles into the perimeter in preparation for an assault.

No additional members emerged.

Thus began a three-week armed siege. It ended with the compound engulfed in flames on April 19. It was the early days of cable, and as news cameras recorded the battle, millions watched it play out. White supremacists from around the country gathered around the perimeter to bear witness and pray for the safety of Koresh and his followers.

During the battle, four ATF agents were killed and 16 wounded. Eighty-two Branch Davidians died, 76 of whom were in the building when it burned.

It was a horrible screw-up on the part of the Clinton administration, one that followed two decades of dithering about the rise of organized white violence in the United States. As Kathleen Belew points out in her book about the growth of the modern white power movement, the Waco disaster was partly caused by the federal government’s reluctance to confront the emergence of a growing and violent network of anti-government groups.

Those groups still exist.

They are a core element of Donald Trump’s base.

Of course, Trump did not tell the crowd that assembled to hear him that violent, spectacular death was part of the Branch Davidian plan all along. He did not tell MAGA faithful that Koresh was not only a serial rapist who targeted little girls, but that he also forced male cult members to abstain from sex so that he would have exclusive access to their wives.

I reiterate this point to emphasize that a narrative about actual federal violence can be successfully massaged to feed a populist antigovernment narrative. But it is also crafted to co-exist comfortably with rightwing falsehoods that children are currently endangered by teachers and doctors who “sexualize” and “groom” them with honest talk about sex and gender.

Waco beget Oklahoma City beget January 6

Haunting Trump’s invocation of Waco is another galvanizing event for the Christian nationalist right: the battle with survivalist Randy Weaver and his family at Ruby Ridge, Idaho, that occurred on August 21-30, 1992.

There are important differences between the two events about which, inarguably, federal agents ought to have made better decisions, even in the face of an armed threat. Unlike the Branch Davidians, the Weavers, who were living off the grid in anticipation of the Apocalypse, intended to survive that event. They did not want to die. They wanted to be left alone and safeguard themselves from what they believed was the chaos to come.

In addition, Randy Weaver did not abuse members of his family unless you consider pulling your kids out of school and making them live without modern conveniences to be a form of abuse. The pretext for Weaver’s arrest was very different, too. He was obtaining what cash the family needed by dealing in illegal, converted, long guns.

Weaver sold one to an undercover agent, failed to show up in court, and the agents who initiated the confrontation were serving a warrant.

Yet both have two important elements in common.

They feature government injustice, martyrdom and mass grievance.

These iconic incidents have galvanized the Second Amendment Sanctuary Movement and have made antigovernment violence a cornerstone of the American right over the last 30 years.

Among other things, the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing was committed by two men who marked the two-year anniversary of Waco by murdering government workers and their children.

Arguably, the attack on the Capitol on January 6, 2021, in which organized Trump supporters intended to kidnap and kill elected officials, has its roots in grievance subcultures that formed around Waco and Ruby Ridge.

But more importantly, Trump is fighting back against the government forces closing in on him by taking his place in the scary patriarchal firmament of men who, like Koresh and Weaver, are widely perceived as martyrs on the extreme right.

It’s really only a baby step at this point.

“God’s battering ram”

As many have remarked, the Former Guy is already perceived as a sacred figure and a martyr by his most fervent supporters. Worshippers speak of him as the equivalent of a modern Jesus, a man anointed as a Messiah by God.

In other words, Trump went to Waco to say he is one of them and to officially take command of America’s violence-prone, grievance-ridden far-right.

If we needed any further proof, the Branch Davidians, who still exist, were delighted that the man they call “God’s battering ram” came to Waco to revive their cause.

So you can think of today’s event as a campaign rally if you want. But it isn’t.

It’s a pilgrimage.

It’s a tacit embrace of antigovernment violence by a former president. And it is Trump’s call for war against the democratic system.

What remains to be seen is whether the entire GOP is going to follow the increasingly loony, embattled Trump down this rabbit hole.

READ MORE: Fact-checker zings Donald Trump for his Waco flub contradicting himself in the same speech

Why I can't wait to see John Fetterman in the Senate

John Fetterman is a gigantic, progressive Democrat in a hoodie, tattoos, and cargo shorts. Currently the Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania, he hopes to replace Republican Pat Toomey in the United States Senate in November. Toomey is retiring, and with Donald Trump’s blessing, Pennsylvania Republicans made their lives far more difficult at the end of May by choosing the wrong candidate: they spurned former hedge fund CEO Dave McCormick, who might have picked up independents in this generally moderate state, in favor of TV doctor Mehmet Oz.

You probably know about all the baggage that Oz brought into the race. A skilled cardiologist at one point in his life, he turned his back on medicine to become a talk show host, wellness guru, and shill for the diet and supplements industry. Want to sleep better? Oz can sell you a $2,500 mattress for that, as well as sheets, pillows, weighted blankets and everything else that will guarantee a good night’s sleep.

Republicans literally have nothing to say for themselves, having actually done nothing of any real moment since George W. Bush left office. Following Donald Trump’s lead, the party’s comms are relentlessly dark, mean, critical and often cruel.

OK, if you have ever suffered from a sleep disorder, you know that’s a lie. But there’s more — perhaps you are feeling fat? Maybe you should consider System Oz, a wellness, intermittent fasting and exercise program that will help you lose weight in an amazingly short time. It will cause you to need a great many dietary supplements from Dr. Oz’s business partnership with iHerb. Want to be young? Beautiful? Have whiter teeth? Less Alzheimer’s?

READ MORE: Mehmet Oz's campaign blames John Fetterman's stroke on his diet

Oz has you covered.

There will be more supplements involved. Lots more.

Oz’s financial disclosure pegs his fortune between $75 and $300 million.

So, Mehmet Oz knows supplements. What he doesn’t know much about is politics, campaigning or governing. He’s one of the mini-Trumps running around the country — JD Vance in Ohio, Blake Masters in Arizona — whose sole qualification for office is that he is rich.

READ MORE: How Mehmet Oz is scrambling to save his 'floundering' campaign: report

Bizarrely, the poor, non-college-educated, working-class white people who identify as MAGA Republicans seem to love voting for people who are insanely rich and who know nothing about government.

Due in part to the horrible campaign Oz has run, Fetterman currently has a comfortable, nine-point lead, according to fivethirtyeight.com. Despite the fact that he was felled several months ago with a heart attack and a stroke, had to come off the campaign trail, and is only now re-emerging on a limited schedule, Fetterman’s lead has shrunk a bit in recent weeks, but not much. Why?

Here is the answer you will not hear from any other pundit.

His comms — politico-speak for “communications” — are so funny.

Fetterman’s style is a breath of fresh air in a line of work that seems to attract every Gloomy Gus in America, not to mention every Ivy League graduate who wants to tell you that your life is no longer worth living because Joe Biden is president. (Yes, I’m looking at you, Ted Cruz.)

For the last five years, the GOP has made every day on social media into some kind of funeral. Republicans literally have nothing to say for themselves, having actually done nothing of any real moment since George W. Bush left office. Following Donald Trump’s lead, the party’s comms are relentlessly dark, mean, critical and often cruel.

Take five recent tweets issued from the Republican Party’s official Twitter account, @GOP:

  • On foreign policy: “One year ago today, 13 American HEROES were killed in Afghanistan.”
  • On student debt relief: “Typical Biden White House: more spending, no saying who will pay for it.”
  • On immigration: “Joe Biden has been on vacation 95 days just this year and still hasn’t made time to visit the southern border.”
  • On back-to-school: “It’s back-to-school season, and Democrats are bringing back their anti-science mandates.”

I corrected the punctuation where necessary, but you get the point. Republicans never say anything nice about anybody—even their own voters. And Mehmet Oz has followed suit.

In a recent tweet, he painted a bleak picture of life in Pennsylvania: “Record homicides. Murderers released onto the streets. The progressive policies of the Biden-Fetterman agenda have caused chaos in the streets and left law-abiding citizens terrified. It’s time to return law and order to our cities — I will do just that.”

The Biden-Fetterman agenda? Really?

And how about this: “I believe in individualism, John Fetterman believes in collectivism.”

In perhaps the nastiest attack I have seen, much less from a physician, Oz snapped that if Fetterman “had ever eaten a vegetable in his life,” he wouldn’t have had a stroke.

We will return to the vegetable theme in a minute. But the Fetterman response was pitch-perfect, speaking directly to Pennsylvanians about a condition that someone in nearly everyone’s family has had — and often made a full recovery from.

“I had a stroke. I survived it,” Fetterman tweeted. “I’m truly so grateful to still be here today. I know politics can be nasty, but even then, I could never imagine ridiculing someone for their health challenges.”

Oz is running one of the worst campaigns I have ever seen. He is an excellent argument for getting money out of politics, since had he not loaned the campaign upwards of $8 million of his own money, he would never have gotten this far.

But he also does stupid things.

Recently, Oz released an ad about inflation, in which he cruised the vegetable aisle in “Wegners” (no, it’s Wegman’s) looking for ingredients for his wife’s “crudités platter,” something the MAGA base can totally relate to, and purchasing salsa to dip the vegetables in, which no one in Pennsylvania would ever do (chips, duh!)

Fetterman responded with a video in which he held up a $7.95 pre-packaged collection of sliced vegetables and dip, and shrugged: “In PA, we call this a veggie tray! If this looks like anything but a veggie tray to you, then I am not your candidate. And I’m serious, Dr. Oz doesn’t even know the name of the grocery store that he’s in!”

Hence Oz’s grumpy jab about Fetterman not eating vegetables.

Undeterred, the Fetterman campaign is continuing to own the vegetable theme and having fun with it. Last weekend, a pair of canvassers went out dressed as broccoli. As you can see, one is carrying a sign that says: “I’m afraid Dr. Oz will dip me in salsa.”

Fun, right? This is what I want to emphasize.

Fetterman is introducing a new kind of campaign, producing ads that are effective because they are less negative than they are funny, human and often kind. We have gone for years watching perfectly nice Democrats scraping their jaws off the floor as Republicans lie, barrage them with insults and insist that Americans live in a crumbling country.

But Fetterman meets the MAGA challenge, countering GOP foolishness with humorous trolling. For example, having a plane drag a banner down the Jersey shore on a hot weekend, welcoming Oz back to the state.

Yes, although Oz has some history in Pennsylvania, he has lived in New Jersey (it is one of his 10 homes, none of which are in Pennsylvania) for decades. When he decided to run for Senate, Oz re-registered to vote from his in-laws’ address in Bryn Athyn, a wealthy suburb outside of Philadelphia. This has provided rich fodder for the campaign.

Hence, my favorite Fetterman trolls are about Oz’s home in New Jersey. For example, Fetterman has started a petition to get the good doctor into the New Jersey Hall of Fame, intended to honor residents of the Garden State for their accomplishments. Oz was a presenter at the 2019 inductions, saying proudly when interviewed, “I’m from New Jersey.” The Fetterman campaign has circulated this video, too.

Better yet, two working-class kids from New Jersey who made good, Bruce Springsteen sideman Stevie van Zandt and “Snookie” of Jersey Shore fame, have filmed videos emphasizing Oz’s ties to the Garden State. “You do not wanna mess around with John Fetterman,” Van Zandt warns. “Trust me. He’s a little outta your league. Nobody wants to see you get embarrassed. So come on back to Jersey where you belong.”

The beauty of these ads is that they call Oz a carpetbagger without calling him a carpetbagger.

“I heard you moved from New Jersey to Pennsylvania to look for a new job,” Snookie says in her high, nasal whine. “Personally, I don’t know why anyone would wanna leave Jersey, `cause it’s like the best place ever, and we’re all hot messes … but I just wanna let you know, Jersey will not forget you.”

The Fetterman campaign has learned something important about how to get ordinary people re-involved in politics: Entertain them. Don’t attack, don’t be cruel — just get your message across in a way that is funny and real.

I just can’t wait to see this guy in the Senate.

READ MORE: 'A massive gaffe': Mehmet Oz scrutinized for saying abortion is 'still murder’ at any pregnancy stage

The 'lost' Secret Service texts are part of Donald Trump’s rolling coup

On January 6, 2021, armed MAGA supporters swarmed the US Capitol in a bid to stop the electoral count that would transfer the presidency to Joe Biden. Secret Service agents, who were detailed to protect Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence, stayed in touch with each other, and with their supervisors, by cell phone.

Like everyone else that day, they were sending text messages.

But as with so many government documents generated by the Trump administration, the public – and the House select committee to investigate the J6 insurrection – will probably never see them.

READ MORE: New analysis breaks down Mitch McConnell’s strategic erosion of U.S. democracy

Joseph Cuffari, the Trump-appointed Inspector General of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), which oversees the Secret Service, doesn’t want to talk about those missing text messages.

On January 27, 2021, Congress told all departments to preserve their records. When subordinates at DHS reported to Cuffari’s chief of staff in April, 2022 – 15 months after a search was initiated – to say that the texts had been permanently deleted in a data migration, that memo was never seen again. Congress was finally informed by a July 14 report saying that these documents may be permanently lost.

Was it a coincidence?

Of course, we cannot know what these texts would or would not add to our understanding of a former president’s rolling coup attempt.

READ MORE: 'Fire to burn': Criminologist warns Trump supporters could react violently if he is indicted

But it isn’t hard to imagine that an even marginally competent IT professional would have routinely backed up devices prior to such a migration. Nor is it too much to expect that the loss of these texts should have been reported, particularly since multiple House committees issued directives for the preservation on January 16, 2021 – eleven days before the alleged data migration took place.

Why? Because records requests now routinely include phone data. These devices report not only what we communicate, but when, and from where, those communications were sent. Digital communications provide a dense, real-time record. And computerized devices don’t do things by accident, or without warning. Permanently deleting such evidence requires either extreme premeditation or extreme negligence.

Text messages speak to witnesses’ state of mind, and decisions made in the moment. Think of the ones we do have: panicked texts from MAGA pundits like Sean Hannity and Laura Ingraham, or the numerous Facebook posts by Stop the Steal activists, have helped tell a vivid story about January 6 that are seared in our memories.

On July 21, we learned the poignant fact that Pence’s Secret Service detail, trapped and hearing the crowd’s chanted death threats, used their cell phones to call their loved ones to say goodbye.

The missing Secret Service texts were important historical documents, but they might also corroborate testimony by Trump and Pence aides about what their bosses did, and said, on J6.

Curiously, however, the data migration that reportedly erased the Secret Service texts from that day occurred on January 27, 2021, two days after the House of Representatives forwarded articles of impeachment to the Senate, accusing the former president of inciting the attack on the Capitol, and one day after Trump was issued a summons notifying him to prepare for trial.

A coincidence? You decide.

Incompetence or malice?

But let’s be clear: Cuffari’s first move on J6, even without a request from Congress, should have been preserving the records of all DHS personnel on duty at the Ellipse, the Capitol and the Oval Office.

There were 24 Secret Service agents engaged that day, 10 guarding then-President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence. Their phones should have been secured as soon as they went off duty. Although the messages they held might have also documented these agents’ valor, Cuffari’s job is to anticipate problems and mistakes.

Inspectors general are supposed to proactively investigate for failure, sometimes identifying a conflict of interest before a legal violation has occurred. That’s why they are nicknamed “watchdogs.”

Instead, Cuffari has been Trump’s fox and DHS his hen house.

He had already refused staff recommendations to investigate potentially improper conduct by the Secret Service and the Border Patrol, in 2021. So the Counsel of the Inspectors General on Integrity and Efficiency, an interagency group that oversees inspectors general, launched an investigation into Cuffari’s unwillingness to do his job. On August 12, Republican senators, led by Missouri’s Josh Hawley, announced that they want that investigation to end.

This points us to a much larger pattern in Trump nominees, from Cabinet-level to administrative jobs: filling important positions with candidates whose history suggested they would dismantle, or disable, the government agency they were appointed to run.

For example, after almost 30 years of enhanced federal intervention in education, a Republican-led Senate confirmed Betsy DeVos, a longtime proponent of defunding public schools through voucher programs, as the secretary of education.

Health and Human Services Secretaries Tom Price and Alex Azar, both of whom became the focus of unrelated scandals, were tasked with reducing government-funded healthcare by weakening administrative provisions of Obamacare.

Surgeon and former presidential candidate Ben Carson retracted Obama-era policies designed to help poor renters and that required suburban districts to track enforcement of racial equity in housing.

Of course, hyper-partisanship at the top is partially offset by nonpartisan civil service employees, tens of thousands of workers, protected by federal law, that remain in place regardless of the party in power.

Yet Republicans have a plan for them too: Should Trump be reelected in 2024, he will come in armed with a plan, which he implemented in late 2020 and Joe Biden rescinded, to target 50,000 civil service workers for dismissal and replacement with party loyalists.

The fight goes on

It would be a mistake to think that Donald Trump’s power grab has been fully defeated, or that the story of the missing Secret Service text messages is only about one Trump partisan’s misplaced loyalty to a defeated president. Cuffari’s refusal to do his job is yet another chapter in the attack on the foundation of our democratic state.

The coup is not over.

READ MORE: 'A pattern of conduct to destroy federal record': CREW urges DOJ to probe missing Jan. 6 texts

The pandemic didn't break our schools — it exposed the crisis they're already in

There is no question that American public schools are in crisis. But critical race theory, diversity initiatives, subversive books and online learning implemented during the pandemic are only the most recent chapters of the story in which politicians speak the language of school reform while draining actual schools of needed funding.

Instead, state and local governments rely on the private sector to address the changing needs of students. Charter schools, high stakes tests, surveillance and rote curriculum devised by consultants divert public funds to private entities. And the Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI) initiatives that have become so controversial in the past six months? Even they are provided by for-profit consultants.

Since none of these developments are reforms, it’s no wonder our schools folded like a house of cards when faced with a pandemic. I often wonder: what would a real reformer, like John Dewey, think?

A philosopher trained at the Johns Hopkins University, Dewey believed schools were the foundation of democracy. At a time when secondary schools featured rows of unmovable desks, and classrooms were dominated by rote memorization, Dewey proposed the radical idea of learn by doing. Reasoning, making choices and experiencing the world as it is prepared students, he said, for a modern, democratic society.

READ: Joe Manchin lashes out with profanity at a reporter who asks about his position on Biden's agenda

This influential turn-of-the-century scholar founded the University of Chicago Lab School to test his theories and, in 1919, my own university, The New School in New York City. Dewey believed that a school was a model community, where students and teachers cooperated in the learning process. The function of school was not to turn out students as quality products, but to cultivate individual creativity and, most importantly, incubate citizens capable of life-long learning.

While Dewey’s ideas were implemented in their most literal form in private, progressive schools, over time they had an impact on public education as well. Whenever students complete a chosen research project, go on a field trip or reorganize moveable desks into small groups to thrash out a problem, it’s an idea derived from Dewey.

But there is less and less room for students to learn by doing, and more pressure for teachers and students to consume rigid curricula that prepare them for standardized tests. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the charter school movement that began in the 1970s, and that was first enacted into state law as educational alternatives in 1991, promoted charter schools as more accountable than mainstream public schools, something that could only be gauged by tests.

The idea that private entities could provide a public service cheaper, and more efficiently, than the government (a theory otherwise known as “neoliberalism”) had a particular impact on schools in the late 20th century, as Republicans and Democrats both bemoaned the decline of public schools and refused to tax Americans to fund them properly.

READ: Mark Meadows is having a really bad week — and Trump's is even worse

Instead, school reform came to mean demanding accountability: from students, parents, teachers and principals. Pedagogies that emphasize discipline, mandatory curricula and grading resurged powerfully after Congress passed George W. Bush’s “No Child Left Behind” legislation in 2002, which threatened to (and did) close “underperforming” schools.

While most public charter schools showed little improvement, others like New York’s Success Academy, prided themselves on imposing rigorous discipline on both students and parents, pointing to their high test scores as proof that regimented classrooms work.

But regimented classrooms are not democratic: they teach children to take orders, not think for themselves. And as we learned during the pandemic, regimentation does not prepare students to learn on their own, nor does rote learning thrive in an online learning environment in which students must be motivated to succeed. Despite the fact that public secondary schools doubled down on rigid rules, requiring students to adhere to school dress codes, sit up straight and show a neat, utilitarian workspace – student performance steadily declined.

Worse, schools couldn’t replicate community in a virtual environment. While substance abuse among teens dropped in 2021, depression and anxiety accelerated as students experienced school without any moderating influence from teachers or friends. The National Institute of Health (NIH) measures average learning loss from school closures at 20 percent, but that number rises to 60 percent among the most disadvantaged students. Up to 3 million students simply vanished.

READ: Is America experiencing mass psychosis?

At a time when students need good teachers more than ever, they are in short supply. A pre-pandemic shortage, fueled by low pay that pushes one in six teachers to hold a second job, is intensifying. Two out of every three Colorado teachers are contemplating a new career, and Minnesota is reaching out to retirees.

And it’s not just the pay and the working conditions. Teachers often don’t have tools allowing them to do their jobs. Stories about teachers purchasing supplies for their students that school systems won’t, or can’t, budget for were back in the news this week when a video featuring eight South Dakota teachers scrambling for cash in a hockey arena, money intended to supplement classroom budgets, went viral.

The pandemic did not cause our school systems to break. It exposed the fact that schools’ fragile capacity to support students has declined. Not surprisingly, so have their buildings, a factor that has inhibited a full-scale return in many places. In 2020, the Brookings Institution reported 36,000 schools were in need of new heating, ventilation and HVAC systems. Over half of American schools needed approximately $197 billion in upgrades to return them to a good condition.

To be sure, the pandemic has been a sucker-punch to education at all levels. But culture-war issues, which occupy hours of broadcast time on cable news and endless social media outrage, only hide what is really wrong with our schools: long-term managed decline and disinvestment. But they do distract voters from policymakers’ repeated failures to reimagine curriculum, invest in infrastructure and create incentives to recruit and retain talented teachers.

READ: Noam Chomsky, AOC slam the failures of ‘neoliberal’ economics during their first meeting

As John Dewey would remind us, that’s a problem for democracy too.

What the media is getting wrong about the centerpiece of Biden's agenda

Last week's election results, which showed modest Republican gains across the nation, set off alarm bells in America's pundit class about the power of progressives in the Democratic party.

Democrats promised change, the Times contrarian Maureen Dowd complained, and instead offered "wokeness" and infighting. Bloomberg's Ramesh Ponnuru warned that even though the Virginia governor's race normally means nothing, former Democratic governor Terry McAuliffe's loss was a "portent" and "bad news" for the national party as it moved forward on a human infrastructure package.

Why? As the editorial board of the New York Times warned, with Joe Biden's $1.75 trillion Build Back Better framework, Democrats were moving too far to the left. "The concerns of more centrist Americans about a rush to spend taxpayer money, a rush to grow the government," the Times wrote, "should not be dismissed."

Indeed, a recent Gallup poll argues that 52 percent of Americans prefer a smaller government, up an alarming 11 percent since last year. But does this mean Biden should scale back his aspirations?

No.

It means Americans are radically underinformed.

In every industrialized country but the United States, government programs perform an essentially moderate task. By supporting workers, they support business. They create vital economies that support well-paying jobs. They keep workers healthy, and vulnerable family members safe. They lower tuitions, train workers so that employers don't have to, and make it possible for students to pay back modest loans at affordable rates.

And best of all — if you are one of those centrists — government programs keep people at work. There is no more graphic example of how the United States has failed at this than the number of healthy Americans who cannot, or will not, return to their jobs.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as of mid-October, 10.4 million jobs are unfilled. More than 1 million of those workers are mothers who cannot find, or afford, childcare. Some missing workers — 80,000 truck drivers, for example — mean American consumers face shortages of everything from paper towels to covid tests as container ships bob offshore. And prior to the pandemic, school districts in the United States were already short 110,000 teachers.

So how would Build Back Better make American business stronger?

Republicans, and some centrist Democratic senators, such as Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, argue it won't. Government "giveaways," we are told, will only make Americans dependent and cripple the economy with higher taxes.

Manchin complains the US will move "toward an entitlement mentality" if Americans who can care for themselves without government help don't. And Sinema, who has raised almost $1 million in donations from lobbying groups, has given a thumbs down to higher taxes on corporations and the wealthy, making Build Back Better even harder for deficit hawks in the Democratic Party.

But it isn't clear what Republicans know that conservatives in other countries don't. The United States is the only industrialized country that does not offer paid family leave, and universal childcare, healthcare, and eldercare. In the United States, not only new parents, but sick and injured workers, are back on the job long before they are ready and able to work. And those who can't pay someone to care for family members have to cut back on consumption: experts estimate that American business may be leaving $28.5 billion a year on the table when families re-budget to account for a lost salary.

There is no question that all these policies are moderate because they benefit business. They keep families consuming, and they bring valued workers back on the job rested, healthy and focused. Similarly, knowing that elders and children are well cared for, at an affordable cost, means that families can plan for the big items that drive a healthy economy: houses, cars and appliances, and the thousands of skilled jobs the market in durable goods support.

But perhaps the biggest categories of government spending that could drive the United States economy are healthcare and education. These economic categories are not only a leading cause of national consumer indebtedness, but also of corporate spending. The cost of college doubles every nine years, and medical debt is currently pegged at $140 billion. Worse, healthcare costs are expected to rise almost 6 percent through 2028, well above the projected GDP of 4.3 percent.

Why is this bad for business? Because the employers who offer healthcare coverage for over 23 million American workers spent almost $14,000 per employee in 2020. That's over $3.2 trillion.

That number is only slightly less than President Biden requested to pay for a capacious package of universal programs, a number that has been whittled down to half that amount. And corporations spend billions more to administer these programs.

Last Friday, the House finally passed the $1.2 trillion hard infrastructure framework: it had yes votes from Manchin, Sinema — and even Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, Mitt Romney, 17 other conservative senators and 13 House Republicans. Why?

Because it was bold in its scope but moderate in its vision. Businesses know they can't compete in a global economy without modern transportation, roads, technology and data security, and that only federal spending and coordination makes national projects possible.

Human infrastructure — healthcare, eldercare, childcare, education and family stability — is also good for business.

It's not progressive. It's just common sense.

Why politicians dawdle when it comes to regulating Facebook

When 37-year-old Facebook whistleblower Frances Haugen testified before Congress on October 5, she brought thousands of stolen documents with her. They are the most conclusive evidence yet that the top social media company knows it profits from harming the public.

Like many whistleblowers, Haugen — a member of the civic integrity team — took an exciting job only to be implicated in what she believes to be an ethical catastrophe. Much has been made of her statement on "60 Minutes" that teenage girls who use Facebook are more likely to suffer from depression and self-harm. Endangering children rightly grabs the public's sympathy and concern.

But what about the consequences to democracy? Haugen is the latest expert to directly implicate Facebook in the tsunami of disinformation that was instrumental to Donald Trump's victory in 2016 and, more recently, his attempts to overturn the 2020 election. Yet, shortly after November 3, as the political crisis that would culminate in the January 6 insurrection was building, Facebook dissolved the civic integrity team.

Six months later, a third of American voters still believed that Donald Trump won the election. Facebook has been implicated, not just in the spread of global illiberalism, but in gun violence, youth suicide, genocide and a contemporary contagion of conspiracy theories. And, except for listening to Haugen's testimony, Congress has done nothing.

Why?

Although the right fulminates about censorship, and the left about Facebook's monopolistic practices, neither Republicans or Democrats seem content to let the company — which also owns WhatsApp and Instagram — regulate itself. Yet Haugen has revealed little that we, and presumably, Congress, did not know about Facebook already.

Since 2018, media experts like Jaron Lanier and Siva Vaidyanathan have explained that Facebook promotes dark and destructive content because it is "sticky," keeping users on the platform for longer sessions that reap greater profits for the company. In their 2021 book An Ugly Truth, Times reporters Sheera Frenkel and Cecilia Kang, using interviews with anonymous and named sources, recounted Haugen's charges in detail.

To understand why the political class does nothing, one could start with Federal Election Commission filings: Facebook employees donated almost $20 million to political campaigns in the 2020 cycle alone. While over 80 percent of that went to Democrats (Joe Biden was the top draw at over $1.5 million), Republicans got their share too. Facebook's PAC, the company's official political donor arm, consistently donates more money to Republicans than Democrats.

But there is, I suspect, something larger in play than money.

Facebook and other forms of digital marketing that would inevitably be affected by regulating Facebook have transformed politics. It was Republican John McCain who mounted a brief, but robust, challenge to the powerful Bush money machine in 2000 by engaging voters live on a website with rudimentary video technology. In 2004, the almost unknown Howard Dean became a contender for the Democratic nomination by raising hundreds of millions in small donations in a few months, connecting to voters on blogs and organizing supporters in states other candidates didn't visit on MeetUp.com.

And in 2008, Facebook entered national politics through the back door. Co-founder Chris Hughes took a leave from the company to organize digital marketing for Barack Obama's 2008 campaign. Following his victory, the right took notice: in 2010, the Tea Party movement mobilized almost exclusively on Facebook to fight the Affordable Care Act, endorsing 129 Republican candidates for the House and nine for the Senate. A third of those candidates won, delivering the House of Representatives into the hands of a Republican majority also stripped of many moderate incumbents.

In a short 20 years, it has become possible for "outsiders" who represent the most energetic factions in both parties to succeed, and career politicians in both parties to fundraise as if they were outsiders. Facebook is the linchpin of a digital universe where it is always election season.

What would political campaigns even look like if social media platforms were, for example, uniformly restrained by standards of truth, restrictions on emotional content and algorithms, or the collection and sale of user data? How would the myriad small donations that power all campaigns, but particularly insurgent progressive and right-wing candidates, be collected? What new methods could mobilize grassroots supporters to demand, or refuse, change?

In a world where only 25 percent of twenty-somethings watch the news — but 70 percent of adults use Facebook — how would politics even happen if social media's reach was blunted?

Since Donald Trump was kicked off Facebook and Twitter, conservatives have complained the loudest about Big Tech's power. But the truth is politicians are not just facing questions about regulation, public health and civic disorder when they confront Facebook's unethical behavior. They are facing questions about a political environment that has been transformed by the internet.

And they are facing ugly truths about themselves.

The Republican Party overplayed its hand in Texas

The Texas Heartbeat Act (SB 8), which went into effect on September 1 when the conservative majority on the United States Supreme Court declined to review it, packs a big political punch.

The law is rife with misinformation. A fetus, for example, has no heartbeat at six weeks. It has no heart. The law ignores the fact many women are unaware they are pregnant at six weeks. It is also designed to sap the morale of progressives, who have collectively spent half a century of time and treasure defending reproductive rights.

But SB 8 is also a calculated political move. Determined Democratic organizing, millions of new voters and explosive urban growth in its increasingly cosmopolitan cities has made Texas a wobbly brick in the GOP's southern wall. Governor Greg Abbott's Trumpian refusal to take sensible public health measures against covid create a opening for Texas Democrats to make new gains in 2022.

To Republicans nationwide, of course, the law demonstrates that the GOP, now mobilized almost exclusively by zombie Reaganism and culture wars, has the power to deliver a policy, one that has been at the center of the New Right's agenda since Roe v. Wade legalized abortion nationwide in 1973. It may even reassure Trump supporters smarting from 2020 that, by seizing the Supreme Court, the party won after all.

But Texas may also have overplayed its hand.

As the Pew Research Center noted in May 2021, public support for legal abortion remains high. Today, 59 percent of Americans support the procedure in "all or most cases," and 39 percent do not. But unlike other issues, those numbers are not fully defined by political party affiliation: 22 percent of conservative Republicans, and a whopping 59 percent of moderate Republicans believe in reproductive freedom.

SB 8 and the threat it poses to reproductive rights in other states is, in other words, a gamble for a party that, in 2020, lost the women's vote by 13 points, the Black vote by 65 points and the Hispanic vote by 33 points. And the 18-40 demographic, people of childbearing age who represent 40 percent of the national electorate? The Republican Party lost those voters by a combined 40 points.

The Texas legislature may cynically imagine women of means will access the procedure, and vote as they always have. Poor women who cannot get a legal abortion, targeted by the voter suppression bill Abbott signed on September 7, won't be voting in the fall. Right?

Wrong.

This isn't 1977 when — against the wishes of feminist allies — Democrat Jimmy Carter signed the Hyde Amendment, banning the use of federal dollars for abortion. Since then, poor women have given birth to unplanned children at a higher rate than middle class and wealthy women. Democrats went on the defense, trying and failing to serve the need for abortion through private philanthropy. Politically, Democrats, presumed that abortion could be preserved by retaining the Supreme Court's liberal majority. And the strategy that evolved out of this was to fight for the presidency, not the country.

But today's Democratic party — the president, the House Majority and its razor-thin Senate voting majority — is united in the belief that universal health care is a human right. Democrats believe that abortion is a personal, not a political, decision, and a keystone of reproductive health. This includes fighting for accessible clinics (Planned Parenthood is a leading provider for men's sexual health services); sex education; contraception; and the maternal care that produces healthy, planned births.

It's also an overstatement to say money solves the abortion problem. True, in the pre-Roe years, women of means could access a "therapeutic" abortion if a sympathetic doctor was willing to fudge the paperwork. But Republicans might be shocked to know how many older women in their party vividly recall the shame and isolation of an accidental pregnancy, the trip to a dodgy abortionist; and being spirited away from high school to deliver a baby they never saw again.

SB 8 will have real-life consequences for real-life women, regardless of party or class. Within hours of it taking effect, many were flocking to neighboring states. That this makes access unequal is part of what activates the reproductive rights movement. "Traveling for an abortion may be impossible for women who would struggle to find childcare or take time off work," a Houston reporter explained. "And for those without legal US status along Texas' southern border, traveling to an abortion clinic also entails the risk of getting stopped at a checkpoint."

But because of this glaring inequality, the new abortion fight will mobilize a Democratic party that has not foregrounded social policies so dramatically since 1965 to win in 2022.

Furthermore, this new fight for reproductive rights will activate the same voters that the GOP is working to silence. It will not just draw on feminists who have fought this fight for over 50 years. It will draw on woman of color mobilizations that the Roe generation only dreamed of: activists mobilizing against anti-Asian hate crimes, #Fightfor15 organizers, the Movement for Black Lives, immigration activists, and grassroots LGBTQ groups who understand the links between abortion and legislation that targets them.

Finally, the law is also a sign of how rudderless, and desperate, the GOP has become. While SB 8 will please the base, it will bring the intensity of a presidential election to the 2022 midterms — not just in Texas, but everywhere there is a Senate or a House seat in play.

There's an important political lesson in the Surfside condo collapse disaster

A little after midnight on June 24, Champlain Towers South, a condominium in Surfside, Florida, started talking. Tremors, creaks and two booms alerted a few residents to grab their wallets and run. Eleven days later, although officials hope for survivors, there aren't any. Aided by a controlled demolition of what remained, 28 corpses have been found. One hundred and seventeen people are still missing.

It's a tragedy that will transcend partisanship. But should it transcend politics? At National Review, senior writer Charles CW Cooke said yes: "What of our ongoing debates about the merits of our two political parties, or our fights over infrastructure or regulation?" he fumed. "Doesn't this incident fit in there? No, it does not."

Nonsense. Of course this disaster is political and ideological, because it is a story about government neglect. By holding builders, inspectors, real-estate agents, bankers and condo boards to high ethical and legal standards, governments protect our lives.

Yet for decades conservative public officials have insisted that individuals make better decisions than the government. Public regulation, they say, is bad for business. And where conservatives cannot deregulate in civil society, they simply do not enforce.

According to investigative reports, it turns out that the town of Surfside, and Miami-Dade County, both failed to inquire and failed to act, allowing Champlain Towers South, and its condo board, to not reckon with the building's obvious deterioration.

Much had been made of natural corrosion of buildings from salt water. But were flaws in the foundation overlooked by Miami building inspectors paid to look the other way? Why was a private inspector's 2018 warning about corroded re-bar, pooling water and cracked concrete not acted on? And why was it submitted only to the town, and not the county, as required by law? Why did Surfside Building Official Ross Prieto assure the condo board, elected residents at odds over a $15 million assessment, that the building was "in very good shape" and that they could delay much-needed repairs?

The tragedy of Champlain Towers South is only the latest chapter in the ongoing saga of a corrupt Miami real-estate industry, supercharged by international money laundering since the 1970s. By 2016, over 50 percent of Miami real-estate deals were cash purchases. The new owners were shell companies created by Florida law firms that shielded the identities of overseas clients—often politicians associated with corrupt regimes, like that of Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro—stealing public money.

When the point of land and real-estate development is to make dirty money clean, shortcuts, sloppy inspections, building code evasions and payoffs are sure to follow. And a range of people who are licensed and regulated by the state of Florida—lawyers, bankers, real-estate agents and construction companies—are implicated.

This, too, is politics. Over time, officials from both parties have been involved. And yet, partisanship may also be playing a role. Increasingly, Democrats are committed to investing in the public, Republicans are not, and Republicans are in charge in Florida. Although Miami has a Democratic mayor, Miami-Dade County itself has become increasingly conservative. This accelerated after 2016, resulting in Donald J. Trump winning a county that had been reliably Democratic for generations—and the state.

Florida's political leadership—its governor, its legislature, its senators, and over two-thirds of its representatives—has cohered around core conservative principles, like low taxes (which make it hard to fund necessary projects) and deregulation of business.

And they act on it. In January 2019, when 28 residents of Champlain Towers South had 18 months to live, Republican governor and potential 2024 presidential candidate Ron DeSantis announced a "deregathon," calling on the state's 23 professional licensing boards to do even less to protect the public interest than they were doing already.

While DeSantis has not denied global warming like his predecessor, Republican Rick Scott, he dawdles and prevaricates. Labeling climate-change policies a "leftist agenda," he refuses to promote a climate policy that requires taxation and public spending—all a ball-and-chain in the party of the former president. "I am not a global warming person," Rick Scott told reporters in 2018. "I don't want that label on me."

Miami now suffers "sunny day floods" in which rising seas push up through porous land where aquifers have run dry, rotting buildings from below. This makes it likely that more luxury oceanfront condos are in as precarious shape as Champlain Towers South was prior to its collapse. One North Miami Beach condo tower was evacuated last week over safety concerns. And it's hard to imagine there aren't more.

The tragedy at Champlain Towers South shouldn't be partisan football. But there is a lesson about politics in this tragedy, and it is this: Individuals do not make the best decisions for themselves. They make self-interested ones. Government is there to make the hard political decisions that individuals cannot, or will not, make on their own.

Politics is how we, as a people, make good on a social commitment to care for each other. Because it wasn't just re-bar and concrete that failed in Champlain Towers South: those tremors, creaks and booms were the sound of Florida politics breaking.

A scandal at Yale exposes a major gap in sexual harassment law

Yale law professors Amy Chua and Jed Rubenfeld, who are married to each other, are in the news. Again. It's not because of an important book or a pro bono constitutional law case. As the Times put it, it's their "boundary-pushing behavior" with students.

Everyone loves a good scandal about good-looking, influential and wealthy people. And since we are also in a political moment during which exposing college faculty as phonies is in vogue, it's no surprise this colorful pair is getting negative press.

The couple was unknown outside of scholarly circles before Chua wrote a best-selling book in 2011, The Battle Hymn of the Tiger Mother. A memoir about perfectionist helicopter parenting verging on self-parody, Chua's success pushed her husband and two daughters to the front page. There they stayed. But then things took a dark turn.

Chua defended Yale grad Brett Kavanaugh as a "mentor to women" during Supreme Court hearings marred by sexual harassment allegations. Then the accusations about Chua and Rubenfeld's behavior toward students became public. In August 2020, Rubenfeld was suspended for two years after a sexual harassment investigation. Chua was barred from socializing with students. The couple denies some of the allegations while other allegations, they say, have been misunderstood and misreported. But this week, Chua is again under scrutiny due to accusations she broke her agreement.

Recent investigative reporting on Chua and Rubenfeld reveals every element that a juicy higher-education scandal requires. A power couple, known to student critics as "Chubenfeld," holds court in a lavish home. There are allegations of boozy dinner parties, sexual harassment and favorites pushed for coveted Supreme Court clerkships. Students spy on each other to get more ammunition against other law professors.

But this is more than a delicious celebrity-faculty scandal. It's about the role that discrimination and harassment, the stepchildren of Title IX, a federal gender equity and inclusion law passed in 1972, are playing right now on elite university campuses.

The complaints against Chua and Rubenfeld do not all claim discrimination and harassment. But connecting the dots between those that do, and other behaviors that are simply noxious and unwelcome, reveals a world that Title IX made. And it also reveals a major problem in higher education. There's no consensus about where sexual harassment begins and ends or even why it affects equity and inclusion on campus.

This is why Title IX should be revised to make its governance over sexual harassment explicit as well as to define what sexual harassment is, and by implication, is not.

Currently, the words sexual harassment do not appear in Title IX at all. The law was initially conceived as an amendment to crucial civil rights bills passed in the 1960s. Written by Congresswoman Patsy Mink and Senator Birch Bayh, it was intended to close gaps in existing law. The 1964 Civil Rights Act did not cover education. The Higher Education Act of 1965 did not specify gender as a protected category.

Equity in secondary school and colleges would, Mink and Bayh argued, determine whether women could compete with men for the opportunity education provided. The language is simple: "No person in the United States shall, based on sex, be excluded from participation in, be denied the benefits of, or be subjected to discrimination under any education program or activity receiving Federal financial assistance."

Initially, the law targeted overt discrimination against women. It also addressed covert spending priorities—such as school athletics, which could be converted into college scholarships—that produced discriminatory educational outcomes for women.

Sexual harassment, a term that was just beginning to circulate in feminist circles, was not one of the problems Title IX addressed. These cases were understood primarily as employment problems and litigated under Title VII of the 1964 Civil Rights Act.

But in 1980, Yale law professor Catharine MacKinnon, who had popularized the term "sexual harassment" in a ground-breaking 1979 book, changed that. She employed the novel argument that Yale, faced with multiple sexual harassment claims, had a duty under Title IX to provide an institutional remedy. In part, this was to provide redress. But Yale also, MacKinnon argued, had a duty to address the needs of female faculty who were functioning as an unpaid, informal counseling staff to traumatized women.

Though dismissed, Alexander v. Yale established the principle that sexual harassment could be litigated under Title IX. It is now common that in any educational setting receiving federal funds, unwanted sexual attention is prohibited as discriminatory.

So are behaviors that can lead to, or follow from, sexual harassment, like preferential treatment, unsolicited personal comments and social intimacy linked to the workplace. But in the absence of actual sexual harassment, should they be?

There seems to be little evidence that Chua, however noxious and unwanted her behavior, has set the stage for behavior Rubenfeld is accused of. Nor is there evidence that students have been denied opportunities because they refused to tolerate them.

Some students defend Chua. Some students of color note she's the only woman of Asian descent on the faculty and a vital mentor. Others are clearly uncomfortable with and angered by her behavior. They have a right to say so and to ask for change. But do Chua's social intimacies and favoritism rise to a level of university discipline?

In the world Title IX has made, yes. But they aren't Title IX violations, nor does Yale say as much. So on what grounds can she be punished? Title IX needs to be clearly revised to make this point. It doesn't seem to be protecting anyone's rights at Yale.

Here's what Liz Cheney is really aiming for

United States Representative Liz Cheney, the No. 3 House Republican, must be banking on the notion that much can happen between now and 2022, and even more by 2024. Why else would she have gone out of her way last week to fist-bump President Joe Biden at the joint-session of Congress, an image that will return to haunt her in a Wyoming primary, where former president Donald Trump is working to defeat her?

Although Cheney says she can win that primary, in 2022, the numbers currently say no. "She wanted to be speaker," a conservative political consultant told me today. "And it's all going up in flames." But could Cheney be setting her sights higher than that?

The daughter of Dick Cheney has refused the conspiracies that fueled the Capitol insurrection on January 6, 2021. She has taken a lonely and tough stance against Trump's position as either the GOP's king or its kingmaker. Despite being censured by the Wyoming GOP after the House impeached Trump, she won't repudiate that vote.

The fist bump sent another message. Liz Cheney is an old-school Republican who has clear differences with Democrats but a shared commitment to the democratic process. Given every opportunity to repair her relationships with Trump loyalists, Cheney has doubled down on a simple truth: Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election.

Cheney retaliated after Trump said on Gab that, "The Fraudulent Presidential Election of 2020 will be, from this day forth, known as THE BIG LIE!" Six out of 10 Republicans agree, but not Cheney. "Anyone who claims it was is spreading the BIG LIE," she tweeted, "turning their back on the rule of law and poisoning our democratic system."

Later that same day, at an American Enterprise Institute event, Cheney repeated herself. Support for the election conspiracy theory was "disqualifying" for any Republican, she emphasized, but particularly those with presidential aspirations.

Cheney is betting the farm that ordinary conservative Republicans will, in the end, support that position—and perhaps her, too. Not so long ago, she was a rising star in the GOP. "She kind of reminds you of Margaret Thatcher or somebody like that in history," United States Representative Greg Walden, Republican of Oregon, told Politico right before the 2020 election: "a strong person, in a big position, a woman who stands her ground in an otherwise male-dominated conference."

Now, Cheney has allies in her conference, but none of them supports publicly standing her ground against a lie that is a GOP moneymaker and that placates the angry man at Mar-a-Lago. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy's patience with Cheney has been dwindling since April when Cheney, in an interview with a New York Post reporter, repeated her assertion that support for the Big Lie was "disqualifying." Importantly, when asked, Cheney refused to rule out a presidential run for herself in 2024.

Whether it's Cheney's unwillingness to accept the lie or the hint that Cheney is eyeing the presidency, McCarthy (who saved her leadership position) is under increasing pressure to demote her. In a news conference Tuesday morning, McCarthy signaled that a vote to replace Cheney in the conference leadership could happen next week.

Cheney might have insulated herself from controversy had she taken the easy route into the Senate in 2020. Yes, delegates booed former presidential candidate Mitt Romney, who as a senator twice voted to convict Trump, at the recent state party convention. Catcalls of "traitor!" and "communist" were hurled from the crowd. But Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has refrained from criticizing members of his conference who dissent from the Big Lie. It is a position he has said he shares.

Currently, Cheney is an outlier for 2024. Trump is flirting heavily with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, nationally known because of his resistance to mask mandates and keeping the state open for business during the Covid-19 pandemic. But what if there is no Trump—as a candidate, kingmaker or king—in 2024? What then? That GOP would be a party without ballast. Its leadership has invested everything in an elderly, unpredictable man entangled in a series of federal and state investigations.

Cheney is a demonstrably tough leader and excellent fundraiser ready to take charge of the party. United States Senator Susan Collins, Republican of Maine, who will retire in 2026, has defended Romney;'s right to depart from Trump. She seems to think so, too. "Liz Cheney is a woman of strength and conscience," Collins told the Washington Examiner. "She did what she thought was right, and I salute her for that."

Can Liz Cheney finish what she has started?

She thinks she can.

Why one anti-trans bill went too far for Republican Gov. Asa Hutchinson

Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson vetoed Monday an anti-trans bill passed by an overwhelming majority. The Republican had already signed a bill banning trans girls from athletic competition against other girls, and one affirming the right of healthcare professionals to refuse treatment for moral or religious reasons. But HB 1570, which would have banned gender-confirming treatments for minors, was "indefensible."

Why?

First, we should stipulate that the surge in anti-trans legislation is a national phenomenon. None of this stuff was written in Arkansas. Dozens of state-level bills introduced in the aftermath of the 2020 election were written from cookie-cutter legislative templates originating from the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC for short), a 501(c)(3) founded at the dawn of the culture wars in 1973.

Legislation and ballot initiatives defending traditional views of sex and gender have historically whipped up the conservative base. Since 1985, ALEC has been well-known for drafting legislative templates that seek to put a brake on expanding LGBTQ civil rights and liberties. In a memo the organization has since disavowed, articulating homosexuality as a choice linked to predatory sexual behavior and pedophilia.

Although it does not embrace gay rights, ALEC does not overtly oppose them either. Instead, the organization preserves traditional stances on gender, sexuality and family by elevating "moral conscience" and "protection." This is what may have put trans girls, even more of a minority than LGBTQ adults, in the organization's crosshairs.

This shift followed Obergefell, the 2015 Supreme Court ruling that legalized gay marriage across all 50 states. The conservative backlash was swift. By February 2016, the Human Rights Campaign identified an "unprecedented onslaught of legislation … targeting transgender children." More than 40 bills were introduced in two years.

Following the 2020 election, conservative legislators in multiple, mostly red, states introduced a blitz of anti-LGBTQ legislation. Sixteen establish the right of health care, clerical and government workers to refuse services on the grounds of moral conscience or faith. Three times as many prevent minors from gender confirmation treatments; and from athletic competition against, or sharing bathrooms with, other girls.

These bills present themselves as acts of conscience and fair play. Echoing the language of the anti-gay Save Our Children campaign, they "save" kids from harms inflicted by adults. The "Save Women's Sports Act" proposes to preserve female athletes from someone who, in the words of one advertisement, "claims to be a girl, but was born a boy." The "Save Adolescents from Experimentation Act" reinforces science skepticism, implying that gender confirmation care is untested and risky.

Anti-trans activists erroneously view gender dysphoria as a myth, identifying those who support transgender children as elevating unstable, youthful "feelings" over the biological "facts" of physical bodies. "Facts don't care about your feelings," a slogan propagated by conservative media personality and anti-trans activist Ben Shapiro.

Bodies are not the only reality conservative lawmakers are concerned about: keeping conservative voters attached to emotionally-charged cultural issues energizes them. Yet only 24 percent of Americans now believe that homosexuals do not deserve rights and equal treatment. Over half of Christian millennials support gay equality.

Even anti-trans bills can be toxic. While easy to pass in red states, they are a liability for any governor aspiring to recruit the corporate donors necessary to running for national office. Gov. Kristi Noem of South Dakota threaded this needle. A potential 2024 Republican presidential candidate, she vetoed an anti-trans sports bill opposed by the NCAA and by corporations. Noem then issued her own executive orders restricting women's athletics to those whose female gender is "reflected on their birth certificate or affidavit provided upon initial enrollment." That appears tough, but because birth certificates can be changed in many states, it creates a legal window.

Asa Hutchinson may have been in a similar position. In a public statement, he explained the bill banning gender confirmation treatment was "overbroad, extreme," and failed to "grandfather those young people who are currently under hormone treatment." It was also government overreach, the governor said: "The state should not presume to jump into the middle of every medical, human and ethical issue."

Cannily, Hutchinson supports conservative principles while avoiding conflict with a Biden administration determined to legally expand transgender protections. While affirming gender difference, he has also distanced himself from the anti-science wing of the GOP by subtly admitting that gender dysphoria is, in fact, a fact, not a feeling.

Finally, by gesturing to the privacy of the doctor-patient relationship, he has signaled support for another sexual right, one that white suburbanites value most: access to legal birth control and abortion. Hutchinson signaled that his support for a more moderate Republican when he declared he could not support another Trump candidacy. Now he has raised another question: Is he supporting himself in 2024?

The GOP embrace of the new culture war isn't fooling anyone

On Monday, US Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio, the Republican Party's most aggressive culture warrior, called for an investigation into "cancel culture."

Welcome back to the culture wars.

We've been here before.

First, there was McCarthyism. Ostensibly a Cold War campaign against fascism and communism, the House Un-American Activities Committee (HUAC) dug deeply into university campuses and media companies, ferreting out "subversive" ideas like nuclear non-proliferation, racial equality, and homosexual rights.

Alternative media—Regnery Press, The Manion Forum, The National Review, and 700 Club—supported the expansion of the right. Repudiating liberalism in both parties, by the 1970s these conservative outlets were actively resisting the "cultural excesses" of the 1960s: free speech, desegregation, free love, and freedom from religion.

Jim Jordan's initiative not only substitutes rhetoric for policy. It substitutes freedom from ideas for freedom of thought.

Conservatives at the time named this policy agenda "family values." By 1991, however, sociologist James Davison Hunter had renamed it a "culture war." Otherwise abstract issues like family, religion, patriotism and freedom were now "controversies that seem to have a life of their own," dividing Americans into opposing political camps.

By 1992, the culture wars strategy took firm root in the GOP as right-wing populists, under the leadership of Patrick Buchanan, repudiated party moderates. While Buchanan failed in his bid for the GOP nomination, at the convention that summer he urged a return to Reaganism when "they were proud to be Americans again."

"The central organizing project of this republic is freedom," Buchanan thundered, excoriating gay rights, abortion rights, and secular public education. "My friends," he continued, "we must take back our culture and take back our country."

But is the crackdown that Jordan and the Trumpist majority of the GOP are calling for—eliminating diversity initiatives on campus and hate speech on the internet as if they were indoctrination—simply another chapter in the story of the same culture war?

No.

To be sure, conservatives always sought to protect their rights at the expense of others. The "right" to be free from homosexuality at school and in public jobs required censoring curriculum as well as policies like the 1978 Briggs initiative that purged LGBT teachers from public schools, and the 1993 "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" compromise forced on Bill Clinton that allowed queer people to serve secretly in the military.

But Jordan's initiative not only substitutes culture-war rhetoric for actual policy. It substitutes freedom from ideas for freedom of thought. While conservatives are up in arms about Amazon's refusal to sell books that make false or conspiratorial claims, Trumpists are engaged in the more dangerous task of purging public libraries of LGBTQ books, suppressing reports on climate change, and ending diversity training.

Similarly, conservatives recognize that creating a parallel social media platform is not a sufficient antidote to having their speech curbed on Twitter and Facebook. Unlike television, radio, and mailings, social media built for conservatives will not be seen by, or capture the imaginations of, independent and uncommitted readers and viewers.

By contrast, in the 1990s, Republicans like Newt Gingrich offered a concrete map for waging a culture war. Designed to mirror the Bill of Rights, the 10-point "Contract with America" offered voters in 1994 an explicit program of tax benefits, welfare cuts, and a strengthened military that aligned with right-wing conservative objectives.

Today's Republicans have no policies. They have hot takes, irony, and a vague antipathy to "wokeness." If Jordan calls for investigations of non-criminal activity, Ben Shapiro bides his time with mockery. On February 26, in response to the kidnapping of Nigerian schoolchildren, he tweeted: "Time to unleash the power of hashtag."

Time will tell whether this was a winning formula, but initial signs suggest fake culture wars won't work in 2022. Yes, Donald Trump won the annual straw poll at last week's Conservative Political Action Conference with 55 percent. But since CPAC is Trump country, shouldn't he have won overwhelmingly? The answer is yes.

The GOP's increasing embrace of this new culture war isn't fooling anyone.

Much less conservatives.

The revenge of the 'liberal tears'

For four years, Donald Trump and his followers mocked Democrats as congenital failures and weepers of "liberal tears." On the 2020 trail, Trump imagined a fistfight he might have with Joe Biden (a famous male weeper), promising his followers that Biden "would go down fast and hard, crying all the way." Madison Cawthorne (R-NC), celebrated winning a Congressional seat last year by tweeting: "Cry more, lib."

It was a ritual in 2020 for Trump supporters to taunt Democrats for crying or, like a bully on a playground, anticipate with delight the tears that would flow from liberal eyes when Trump and his allies scored another victory.

But Biden won, and crying may be back. On Monday, his nominee for attorney general, Merrick Garland testified before some of the same senators who refused him a Supreme Court hearing in 2016. Garland stopped to compose himself as he told the story of his grandparents' flight from antisemitic violence, and his "obligation to the country to pay back" for their lives. While some outlets respectfully described him as "emotional," others noted that Garland was "tearing up" as he spoke.

Of course, this kind of bullying is not entirely conservative. It is also good business. Just as you can purchase bacon-scented gun oil branded as liberal tears, there are coffee mugs for sale that hold "alt-right tears," "white tears," "MAGA tears" and the tears of men who are white, straight, and just plain mediocre.

But history skews towards weeping as a conservative slur. From the 1890s through World War I, Progressive men were taunted by their "red blood" opponents as effeminate "mollycoddles" prone to breaking down in tears. Women were excluded from voting until 1920, and then from office holding for another half-century because their tears were seen as the opposite of reason. A 2019 study showed that one in eight Americans still believe women are too emotional to hold office.

While President Dwight Eisenhower was known to have a good cry when asked to recall the sacrifices of World War II, male tears largely remained a sign of political weakness and failure for most of the 20th century. In 1952, then-Senator Richard Nixon cried when confronted with a fundraising scandal. Jimmy Carter was widely reported to have wept when he lost the 1980 election while the victor, Ronald Reagan, never shed a tear in public and was famous for displays of masculine anger.

That changed with Bill Clinton, who may have done more than any modern liberal to rehabilitate crying and associate it with the Democratic party. While Clinton cried very little as president, photographers often caught him in tears as he watched the former First Lady succeed as a politician after 2000.

The association between crying and authenticity was cemented in the 2008 New Hampshire primary when a TV crew caught the normally restrained Hillary Clinton on the brink of tears, a personal moment that gave her a victory over Barack Obama. By 2016, Obama had cried so frequently in public that it was said to be "revolutionary."

Obama's emotional honesty may have encouraged other men to cry too, even Republicans. John Boehner, who cried when he became speaker of the House in 2010, routinely wept when asked about his bootstrap story. And Glenn Beck, who wept so much— faith, family violence, and George Washington were a few triggers—that he was suspected of faking it and characterized by Trump during the 2016 campaign as a "weird guy" who was "always crying."

Trump hated tears. He announced on the eve of his inauguration that he never cried because he liked "to get things done." Not crying, as if others wept at the drop of a hat, became part of the Trump brand. While Melania Trump was said to have cried in despair when her husband was elected, she never cried in public: Trump once said proudly that she wouldn't cry if he died. Although Ivanka is said to cry when calling editors to have negative publicity retracted, no one in the Trump family has been photographed in tears.

And ironically, the false narrative of Trump's victory still hinges on tears. "Gimme four more years," a white adolescent boy lip-synced on TikTok last week, draped in a Trump flag. "What comes next? Liberal tears." Bumper stickers and tee shirts that used to read "Trump 2020: make liberals cry again" have been updated for an anticipated 2024 campaign.

They are now on sale at Amazon: because the only losers are people who cry.

'This will never end': Why conservatives sound increasingly desperate and ominous

Just a day before the House stripped Georgia Republican Congressperson Marjorie Taylor Greene of her committee appointments for violent speech and disseminating conspiracy theories, Rep. Jim Jordan was apoplectic. In a surprisingly tough interview with Sandra Smith and John Roberts of Fox News, the House Republican from Ohio warned that censuring Greene was a "slippery slope" toward silencing all Americans

Although Jordan never used the phrase, Twitter picked up on the "slippery slope" argument. Acting against an elected representative was more dangerous to democracy than Greene's proposal: that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi be executed for treason.

House Republican Jim Jordan: "This will never end, and if we don't stop it now, every single American is at risk."

"Tell me where it ends, Sandra?" Jordan asked, pointing at the audience. "Who's next? Look at the cancel culture!" If the Democrats "keep attacking people, their First Amendment free speech rights, where does it end?"

American politics has always relied on logical leaps, or articles of faith. Rhetoric like "When in the course of human events" and "the only thing we have to fear is fear itself" and "there's not a liberal America and a conservative America, there's a United States of America" inspire faith in the American democratic order.

But the "slippery slope" argument invokes darkness, instilling or leveraging irrational, unfounded fears of annihilation. By the 1870s, pseudo-intellectuals like Madison Grant insisted that only colonialism, ending non-white immigration, and suppressing Black civil rights would prevent the worldwide destruction of the "Caucasian" race.

FBI Director J. Edgar Hoover saw the rise of socialism after World War I similarly, launching a decades-long assault on the left starting in 1919. Donald Trump's characterization of Latin Americans as murderous rapists enlisted fearful Americans in a ruthless and racist project to exclude, deport and divide.

But the slippery slope fallacy is also established conservative political theory. In Road to Serfdom (1944), Friedrich Hayek proposed that nearly invisible choices to restrict freedom ended in dictatorship. Contemporary legal scholars, philosophers, and ethicists take the slippery slope—that B inexorably follows A, and is far worse than A ever was—seriously. In 2003, Eugene Volokh, the legal scholar, argued in the Harvard Law Review that, while not absolute, "slippery slopes are … a real cause for concern."

The slippery slope also proposes that there is a descent into chaos and unfreedom that can only be prevented by checking liberal policy agendas: abortion, gun control, and national health insurance. On the 10th anniversary of Roe v. Wade (1973), Ronald Reagan declared that failing to protect every fetus was a slippery slope to legalizing infanticide. Paying doctors to consult with terminally ill patients under Obamacare was re-cast as a slippery slope toward "death panels." In Box v. Planned Parenthood (2019), Clarence Thomas not only incorrectly linked legal abortion to eugenics, but also insisted the procedure was "an act rife with the potential for eugenic manipulation."

Not surprisingly, much of Donald Trump's strong-man rhetoric depended on logical fallacies, many of the slippery slope variety. As he approached the 2020 election, these became more catastrophic. A vote for a Democrat was a vote to replace the American Dream with socialism. Background checks—which he had once cautiously supported—were now a "slippery slope" leading to a future "where everything is taken away."

As Jim Jordan threatened on Fox News, Republicans could learn to take everything away too. "It won't stop with Republicans. It'll-it'll go to all of us," Jordan said, jabbing his thumbs into his own chest. "So this will never end, and if we don't stop it now, every single American is at risk. And that's what concerns me." Why, Senator Dianne Feinstein's name had just been removed from a public school in California!

Slippery slope arguments are tactical. They distract from real issues, while activating conservatives to overcome their differences and rally around a vague, but potent, idea about freedom. Expect to hear more of this rhetoric in the coming months, as Republicans frantically try to rebuild a party riven by defeat and disunity, and work to hide the complicity of the party leadership in the violent end to Trump's presidency.

BRAND NEW STORIES
@2025 - AlterNet Media Inc. All Rights Reserved. - "Poynter" fonts provided by fontsempire.com.