CNN data analyst Harry Enten on Wednesday warned Republicans can expect to say "adiós" to their majority if gas prices remain high through the midterm elections.
Wednesday marks 76 days until the Nov. 3 election, and one of the biggest problems for Republicans ballot is that those who are angry with both parties are breaking for Democratic candidates.
Enten showed that in the choice for House races, Democrats were preferred to Republicans 49 percent of the time, while Republicans were only chosen by 26 percent of voters dissatisfied by both parties.
It all goes back to the economy, said Enten.
In a CBS/YouGov poll, the anti-party sentiment centers on issues like policies around cost of living. According to voters' attitudes about Democratic policies, 36 percent believe that Democratic policies help, while 38 percent believe they hurt. While 24 percent believe that Republican policies help the cost of living, a whopping 55 percent say they don't.
The top issue of the day, Enten said, all goes back to affordability — and fuel prices are a big piece of that. Amid claims that there is no deal between Iran and the U.S., oil prices shot up again.
Enten also looked at the prediction markets and noted where they believe gas prices will sit as the election approaches.
"Chance that the gas prices on election day are above $3.50 per gallon, look at this: 81 percent chance, according to the prediction market, that number up like a rocket. This is why ... Americans think that Republicans hurt them on the cost of living. This number holds — this number, right, well, I'll tell you this much: Adiós, amigos, goodbye, see you later [to] that Republican House majority, and maybe that Senate majority as well," Enten said.
Prices for groceries, housing, health care and energy costs remain central worries for Americans, with many households saying they are only getting by or struggling. Democrats have gained ground in the 2026 cycle by emphasizing lower everyday costs and health care, while dissatisfaction with Trump’s handling of inflation and the economy has weakened the GOP’s traditional advantage. Still, the edge is narrow rather than decisive: a recent poll found 54 percent trusted Democrats more on the economy, versus 45 percent for Republicans, while another found near parity between the parties
