The Bulwark's publisher, Sarah Longwell, a former Republican and longtime pollster, spoke to her focus groups in Iowa about their experience living in Donald Trump's economy and how it is affecting elections for the House, Senate and Governor's Office.
In her analysis of the meetings, Longwell explained that Trump has never lost Iowa by more than eight points. But this time around, his coattails aren't as strong as they once were.
"Of the ten polls of this race since September 1 in the New York Times polling aggregator, the Democrat leads in four, the Republican leads in five, and one was a tie," she cited.
What will ultimately be the biggest decision maker is just how toxic the MAGA Republican brand has become, she said.
Longwell has been speaking to former Trump voters in the state about the GOP candidates there. Rep. Ashley Hinson (R), for example, is the GOP nominee for the open governor's seat. Longwell explained that, unlike other candidates, she's never messed up, doesn't have the Ken Paxton-level of scandals and isn't incompetent. Still, GOP voters can't get themselves excited about her.
"Time comes for us all, and even the taboo-breaking, rule-smashing, norm-violating, punk-rock-in-khaki-pants MAGA movement has grown stale to many voters. It’s not cool or subversive the way it once was," wrote Longwell. "Which means that already-establishment politicians like Hinson put themselves in double jeopardy when they have a years-long resume of red-hatting."
MAGA is now "establishment" if not entirely "old school."
"I think to me she kind of falls in the camp of like a party politician, which is not necessarily a bad thing, just she kind of seems to toe the line of, like, the Republican Party, but not necessarily in a positive way," said 30-year-old Celeste about Hinson. "Just that, ‘Hey, we have this party line. You get on board, you say the right things, we eventually bump you up, and you get more and more power as a politician, and then eventually you retire very rich.'"
Joel, 39, also voted for Trump in 2024, but he's not keen on the MAGA brand anymore either.
"[Hinson] definitely gives, like, MAGA vibes, and for some people that’s a plus; for me it is not. But I think she comes across as almost too polished — like she’s giving the answer that she thinks that people want her to give versus how she genuinely feels about things," he told Longwell.
Amanda, 42, said that the only thing that she knows about Hinson is the plane that flew over the state fair for ten days reading "'Ashley Hinson sold us out to China,' or something like that." That was enough to persuade Amanda to vote against Hinson.
Longwell confessed she was fascinated by a plane banner persuading someone and she noted that no one should extrapolate from one person in a focus group that it was a successful way to change the hearts and minds of the masses.
"But it’s notable that a) whoever ran that ad about Hinson and China identified it as a possibly successful line of attack, and b) at least for this voter, it was. Five years ago, accusing a MAGA Republican of being soft on China just wouldn’t land — voters wouldn’t find it believable. Not anymore," wrote Longwell.
Finally, Longwell played one of Hinson's ads for the group that talks about her reaching across the aisle to create bipartisan legislation. The group said that they loved the idea of the sides coming together to create laws that more middle-of-the-road policies, but they didn't buy it coming from Hinson. She mentioned Trump in the ad, and it was enough for the group to question how "bipartisan" it is if she's citing working with Trump as her example of reaching across the aisle.
Longwell assessed, "If Republicans can’t mention Trump in an ad — even one about working with everyone — that’s a brand problem."
