Trump left reeling over 'enormous strategic blunder'

When Republicans doubled down on their gerrymandering plans for Texas and other red states, Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom responded with an aggressive redistricting push of his own and maintained that members of his party needed to fight fire with fire. Meanwhile, in an April 21 special election 3000 miles to the east in Virginia, voters approved a new congressional map that, according to the New York Times, could "shift four Republican-held seats to Democratic control" in the U.S. House of Representatives this midterms year.

In an article published on April 22, The Atlantic's Russell Berman stresses that the GOP's gerrymandering push appears to be backfiring.

"When President Trump, last summer, implored Republicans to launch a nationwide gerrymandering blitz to pad their narrow House majority," Berman explains, "the fight he started did not seem fair. GOP lawmakers had both the will and the power to draw their party new seats, while Democrats were hamstrung by limits of their own making. The question was not whether Republicans could expand their edge in Congress, but by how much. This morning, the landscape looks a lot different, after Virginia voters yesterday approved a lopsided new House map that could hand Democrats an additional four seats that Republicans currently hold."

Berman continues, "The Democratic redistricting victory is the party's second in a statewide referendum. When combined with new lines that California voters endorsed in November, Democrats have now succeeded in drawing districts that will likely yield them nine more seats this fall, at least matching what Republicans have been able to achieve in states that they control. By some measures, Democrats have jumped into the redistricting lead, bolstering their chances of winning back the House majority in the midterm elections."

Berman warns, however, that for Democrats, the "battle is not over."

"The GOP-dominated Florida Legislature will hold a special session next week to consider redistricting, and the Democratic victory in Virginia could help Gov. Ron DeSantis win over lawmakers who are reluctant to press the Republican advantage too far," the Atlantic staff writer notes. "Officials in both parties expect the Supreme Court to issue a ruling in the coming months that will weaken, if not eviscerate, a key part of the Voting Rights Act, which would allow states such as Louisiana and Alabama to carve up districts now held by Black Democrats. Such a decision would have an even larger impact in southern states come 2028."

Berman continues, "But for now, Trump's move to open this new front in a centuries-old gerrymandering war between the parties looks like an enormous tactical blunder. Republicans have appeared taken aback by the ferocity with which Democrats have responded — and the speed with which they’ve set aside their drive to ban gerrymandering in the name of good government. In both California and Virginia, Democrats swamped the opposition in campaign spending, using the redistricting referenda to rile up a party base seeking any opportunity to push back against an unpopular administration."