Bad news: Economist says struggling voters likely won’t see their 'Trump tariff' refund

Economist Scott Lincicome said the February Supreme Court ruling dismantling President Donald Trump’s illegal emergency order tariff was a big victory for the rule of law. But don’t think you’re getting reimbursed for all those costs you paid out while Trump was imposing illegal taxes on you.

“[The court] … left tariff refunds to be worked out by lower federal courts, administration officials, and private parties — a situation that raised practical, legal, and economic questions. … But the tariff refund process is still far from perfect, and it will generate many winners and undeserved losers due to the choices the administration is now making — and the ones it unwisely made last year,” said Lincicome.

Trump’s [International Emergency Economic Powers Act] tariffs slurped $166 billion in extra charges from U.S. businesses and consumers, and returning it will be a massive task that isn’t trickling down to the little people any time soon – if at all.

“[The refund system is not great] because it takes too long and places the burden on all the American importers who did nothing wrong, dutifully paid up, and are now owed their own money,” said Lincicome. “And things could get worse in the coming days if the government appeals the CIT’s refund orders or if CBP searches for ways to narrow payouts or punish applicants for unintended paperwork mistakes made in CAPE or during the chaos of 2025.”

“Maybe it’s too much to ask for Washington to proactively offer quick and automatic refunds to all who paid Trump’s illegal tariffs, but it’s still frustrating that many businesses will be hurt, not to mention millions of consumers and taxpayers, too,” Lincicome added.

The most frustrating part, however, said Lincicome, is that “every single annoyance and injustice described in this column — the compliance burdens, the Wall Street arbitrage, the litigation and political grandstanding, the needless interest expenses — is a direct consequence of an administration that chose expediency over the law, confiscated $166 billion via a series of dubious unilateral taxes, and told federal courts to keep those taxes in place for most of last year because, if they lost at the Supreme Court, refunds would quick and easy for all who paid them.”

But Trump’s IEEPA tariffs “were not a close legal call,” said Lincicome. Still, the administration recklessly gambled on its right to snatch other people’s money “and lost big.”

“And now, even in the best case, the government will get to keep billions in ill-gotten funds it never should have had,” said Lincicome.