U.S. President Donald Trump delivers a speech during the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) annual fundraising dinner in Washington, D.C., U.S., March 25, 2026. REUTERS/Ken Cedeno
The Palm Beach Post — which happens to be the largest newspaper in Palm Beach, home of President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Resort — has bad news for Trump and the Republicans. With the midterms looming, not only does the president and GOP face abysmal polling, but a new district created by Florida’s newly gerrymandered map appears to be more competitive than state Republicans hoped.
“Trump's low approval rating is enough to raise alarms for Republicans in the midterm elections this fall,” writes the Post, noting that “new polls show a majority of voters are opting for Democrats on a generic ballot.” Trump has attempted to rig the congressional map by pushing for redistricting in Texas, which kicked off a multi-state redistricting battle that ultimately netted Republicans more potential seats to win, but as the Post explains, not only have “pollsters found that voters' enthusiasm and intention lean Democratic,” but one of Florida's new districts turned out to be a toss-up.
While Florida’s 25th Congressional District, which includes the coast from Miami Beach to Delray Beach, was created by Florida’s Republican lawmakers specifically to result in a conservative-leaning district, the highly reputable, non-partisan Cook Political Report lists it as a toss-up leaning solidly Democrat. The Post notes that Representative Jared Moskowitz (D-FL), incumbent from the 23rd District, is running for the seat.
What’s more, the Post pointed to a number of new polls that spell bad news for Republicans, writing, “An Emerson College Polling survey found 53 percent of Americans were more likely to vote Democratic in a generic 2026 congressional ballot, compared to 42% voting Republican.” The paper noted that Democrats’ “significant lead” was being driven by “women voters, who break for the Democratic candidate by a 27-point margin, 56 percent to 39 percent, while men are more split: 49 percent support the Democrat and 44 percent the Republican.” Meanwhile, “The poll gave Trump a 39 percent job approval rating, compared to 57 percent who disapproved.”
The Post also cited a recent poll by Fox News, which found 68 percent of Democrats are extremely motivated to vote in November compared to 57 percent of Republicans. According to the paper, “The poll respondents were also more likely to say Democrats could better handle several issues, including the economy and inflation, issues Trump ran on in 2024.” Furthermore, “When asked if the election was held today, 53 percent of voters would back their Democratic candidate in the House race, compared to 46 percent who would vote Republican. Fox News said 53 percent is the highest percentage received by either party in their generic House ballot polls since 1996.”
According to Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who works with Democrat Chris Anderson to conduct Fox News polls, "The best estimates I’ve seen suggest the GOP could retain the House even if the Democrats win the national vote by 2-3 points, but if Democrats win by 6-7 points, they probably take the House."
