Republicans in panic mode over 'scary' signs their base won't show up

Republicans are once again in panic mode over the 2026 midterms, according to The Washington Post, as "scary" new data about their voters' enthusiasm gap shows that they might not care anymore.

According to the Post's new report from Sunday morning, GOP pollsters and strategists "are raising the alarm" about the party's voters, warning that they are feeling "listless and demotivated" at a time when the party needs them to be energized for the midterms. This comes at a time when the GOP already had ample reason to worry about getting wiped out by Democrats.

"A raft of discouraging data from polling, door knocking and focus groups is unsettling Republicans as their party heads into a midterm election season that would be challenging no matter what, given President Donald Trump’s low standing in polls and the fact that the party in control in Washington almost always loses seats," the Post explained. "The lack of enthusiasm is reaching deep into Republicans’ loyal base, spreading to the party’s most consistent voters — who have shown up to vote in all of the past four primaries and general elections, according to an analysis done by Americans for Prosperity Action, a conservative super PAC that was founded by billionaire Charles Koch. This new issue with the base adds to the party’s more enduring problem of turning out less-frequent voters who support Trump but often skip midterm elections."

The report continued: "About 1 in 5 reliable Republican base voters are at risk this November, according to Nathan Nascimento, executive director at AFP Action. Those voters in Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Montana, New Hampshire and Michigan are either saying they may stay home or are weighing voting for Democrats, according to their data, which is based on polling and extensive efforts to engage targeted Republican voters by knocking on their doors. The voters are primarily worried about inflation and the economy."

“This is a big chunk,” Nascimento said. “This is a scary number.”

Nascimento further noted that this issue appears to be separate from another problem the party has faced over the last decade: the significant chunk of "low-propensity" voters who only show up to vote Republican during presidential elections when Trump is on the ballot. The president's pull on these voters as a candidate has been described as "mythical" by some observers, but has created a major problem for the GOP during off-years and midterms, as well as a grave problem going forward, now that he is term-limited.

“We have a high-propensity base problem,” Nascimento added.

The Post's report also quoted Lance Sulentic, a 56-year-old three-time Trump voter from Iowa who called their past support of the president "the worst three mistakes I’ve ever made in my life," lamenting his failure to keep his 2024 campaign promises and the new pain he is feeling at the pump.

“We voted for Trump, and he did the opposite of what he said he was going to do,” Sulentic said. “Gas prices were going to be two dollars, food was going to be cheaper, energy prices was going to be in half, we were going to get two rebate checks to the American people, and we weren’t going to have any new wars, and we were going to build a wall and deport 30 million illegal aliens, and he did none of it.”