On Wednesday, as the Republican midterm convention ramped up in Dallas with hopes of rallying the party’s base around President Donald Trump, new reporting revealed that GOP insiders worry that the “midterm results are already baked in the cake.” According to the Washington Examiner, while convention organizers hope the event will “fire up voters” and “reset” the campaign, “Republicans appear to be trailing in several key races,” and Trump’s cratering approval ratings may already spell doom for conservative midterm chances.
“What if the result of the midterm elections is already pretty much a done deal?” wondered the Examiner. “If, 55 days before Election Day, the outcome is already baked in the cake and there’s not much that can be done to change things? And what if that is especially true when Trump wants to make the election about his performance as president, as he apparently does?” As one “knowledgeable and experienced Republican” who spoke with the paper put it, “Voters’ negative views on the economy and the war in Iran are fully baked. Nothing will change that before election day. Those are certainties.”
“And then,” notes the Examiner, “there is the always vexing question of which voters will actually bother to show up. That’s one of the things the Republican convention is designed to move the needle on. Maybe it will succeed. But fundamentally change the race? The reality is, some of the major factors are already set and are highly unlikely to change in the next 55 days.” According to the outlet, “There is a lot of research suggesting that many voters make their decisions early in a campaign. To the degree that some of the issues voters have unchangeable opinions on — Trump, the economy, and the war — to the degree that those factors play a decisive role in the voting, then the result might indeed be baked in the cake.”
The Examiner argues that this is especially true on matters involving Trump, who has put himself at the center of the election, saying at a recent rally, “So what I really want you to do is pretend, please, that I’m on the ballot. Just come and vote. It’s so important.” According to the paper, “Trump’s intention seemed clear; he was trying to spark higher, presidential-level turnout in a lower-turnout midterm election. But the effect of Trump’s words was also clear; he was putting himself in the middle of the midterms. And given his job approval ratings, that is, to say the least, a risky strategy. Trump’s approval currently stands at 39.7 percent, with 57 percent disapproval.” And as the Examiner notes, “Looking at the most recent dozen polls in the average, which include pollsters whose results have been both more and less favorable to Trump, the president has been underwater in every single one. In the best poll for Trump, he was six points underwater; in the worst, he was 30 points underwater. In this term, Trump has been underwater since early March 2025, just weeks into his presidency.”
With all that in mind, writes the Examiner, “No wonder the Republican veteran sees the Trump factor as absolutely unchangeable. The same is true, by the way, of Trump’s job approval specifically on the issue of the economy and on the war — both topics on which Trump is underwater.” The paper concludes with a grim warning for the GOP: “There are a lot of voters out there — about 107 million Americans voted in the 2022 midterm elections — and it could be that an overwhelming number of them have already made up their minds.”
