The Republican Party is in disarray again after Speaker Mike Johnson gave up on a legislative deal before the Independence Day holiday.
Punch Bowl News reported on Monday that "Republicans are in a state of chaos" after Johnson's plans last week stalled. So, he sent everyone home early. Now, Trump is headed to Turkey for a NATO summit, but there's still little hope of progress. Johnson's move made Republicans "unable to open the floor for serious legislative business for a second straight week."
According to Johnson, who spoke to Fox News, he “decided it was best” to simply send everyone home. That said, Johnson, and for that matter, President Donald Trump, have a sense of urgency around the voter restrictions bill, renamed by Trump as the "Safeguard American Voter Eligibility America Act" or SAVE America Act.
“The president has that as a top priority, and so do I," Johnson told Fox.
Indeed, the party is coming to a last-chance timeline. Their flagship legislation would require many voters to get their documents in order to vote. If your address or name doesn't match documents that prove U.S. citizenship, it could be a problem for those who need to update their registration and must get a birth certificate to do so.
The bill won't pass the U.S. Senate unless republicans eliminate the filibuster. The only way to avoid a filibuster is to craft another budget reconciliation bill and try to slip the voting restrictions into that bill. There is a Pentagon funding bill that could go in it, but hardline conservatives aren't wild about more spending.
It's something the Senate Parliamentarian has already said is not possible under the Byrd Rule, which prevents non-budget matters from being put into budget bills. Johnson intends to test that debate. It's unclear if he intends to take the parliamentarian to court or have the Senate fire her
Another hitch in the Johnson plan is that Trump has made it clear he doesn't want a compromise to his bill and that it must remain as is without being watered down.
As Punch Bowl explained, none of these will make it through the Senate. The anti-spending right and the more moderate right aren't likely to agree on the budget, let alone if Johnson were to tack on the voting restrictions. Bringing both groups together with Democrats will never happen.
Punch Bowl explains it, "Good luck getting agreement with moderate Republicans or Democrats on that." The budget-cutting far-right is already facing off against Democrats in the November elections and Trump's coattails aren't big enough or strong enough to help lift them up anymore.
There are just 24 legislative working days left before the election. Six of those 24 are "fly-in days," meaning they're working days, but votes usually don't come until very late to accommodate West Coast lawmakers. That leaves 18 days. Lawmakers will be out for all of August for the so-called "August Recess" and will return the second week of September after the Labor Day week. Then, they'll be gone for all of October. Were Republicans to pass legislation restricting voting rights in September, courts are likely to put it on hold for being too close to the election and not allowing Americans the time necessary to gather their documents. So, those 18 days are reduced to half in July.
That doesn't even begin to deal with the fact that Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) is refusing to kill the filibuster.
Meanwhile, the housing bill that Trump said he was refusing to sign unless he gets the voting restrictions bill runs out of time on July 10. If Trump doesn't sign it by midnight, it automatically becomes law, so his leverage is already on thin ice. Unless he vetoes it, he has no leverage at all to pass his voting restrictions.
