With the midterms looming, there is a “real possibility” that President Donald Trump will be impeached. This is according to the conservative newspaper the Washington Examiner, which on Monday warned its Republican readers that the GOP’s congressional majority is seriously imperiled, and that Trump and his party could be “in for a couple of trying years.”
As the Examiner explains, “The odds are Republicans will lose control of the House in the coming midterm elections, for five reasons: 1) their current majority is so narrow that losing a literal handful of seats would cost them control; 2) they will be hurt by President Donald Trump’s low job approval rating, especially on his handling of the economy; 3) the so-called ‘generic ballot’ poll shows voters would prefer a Democrat to represent them in the House; 4) the war in Iran/the Middle East will be a continuing source of uncertainty and tension for the GOP; and 5) precedent strongly suggests the party that controls the White House will lose a substantial number of House seats.”
Should the Democrats flip it, warns the Examiner, “there’s a real possibility that a new Democratic majority in the House would impeach Trump for a third time. And there’s no doubt in the world that Democrats would kill the president’s legislative agenda.” In the case of the latter, however, the Examiner does admit that the danger to Trump’s legislative goals is limited, because “beyond the SAVE America Act, which will not pass this year, Trump doesn’t really have a legislative agenda to kill.”
Impeachment in the House also wouldn’t mean much for Trump, who has been impeached twice already, unless Democrats also flip the Senate, which would be required for actual removal from office. But while their road to a Senate majority is narrower than with the House, the Examiner says that there “appears to be more of a chance” than a few months ago.
“Republicans hold 53 seats in the Senate, which means Democrats would have to win four currently Republican-held seats to win control,” explains the Examiner. “This time last year, that seemed a remote possibility. But now there are six Republican seats that Democrats have a non-zero chance of winning. And there are just two Democratic seats in significant jeopardy.” And as the Examiner notes, Democrats are likely to flip one of those six, while the other five “could go either way.”
While the paper notes that there are still three months over the course of which a lot can happen, it concludes on a pessimistic note, warning conservatives, “There is no reason for Republicans to feel confident that, after losing the House, they will still have the Senate. They could lose both. And then, President Trump and his party will be in for a couple of trying years.”
