During Donald Trump's 2024 campaign, one of his most effective talking points was a promise to lower prices "on Day 1." But between President Trump's tariffs and his war against Iran, prices have increased since his return to the White House 20 months ago. And according to The New Republic's Virginia Heffernan, there is a word that is especially problematic for Trump at this point: diesel.
"Diesel prices have surged since Trump took office, and especially since February 28, when he started the war in Iran," Heffernan explains in a New Republic article. "When Joe Biden left at the start of 2025, diesel cost an average $3.63 per gallon. Just this month, that price blew past an average of $5.85 to a record high of more than $6.50. Disruptions to oil shipments, notably in the Strait of Hormuz, are pushing up crude oil prices, while reduced diesel supplies have left fuel markets tight all over the world. On Monday, Tom Kloza, the chief oil analyst at Gulf Oil, was not reassuring. 'Monday morning price average for US diesel is $6.51/gal,' he posted to X."
Hefferman emphasizes that "skyrocketing diesel prices aim a missile squarely at the voters Trump can least afford to alienate" — including truck drivers who voted for him in 2024.
"Fully 90 percent of diesel truck buyers are men," Hefferman notes. "More than 84 percent identify as white. Most strikingly of all, truckers have a ram-tough party ID. According to one analysis, Republicans purchase eight heavy-duty trucks for every one purchased by a Democrat. And while Trump and his party have entirely failed to calm public fears about gas prices — 'I love the inflation!' Trump said in June — they've done far, far worse with diesel, where prices are spiking even more steeply."
Heffernan continues, "About one in five Trump voters now regrets their 2024 vote, according to one opinion-research organization. No wonder social media is filled with the diesel demographic, one-time Trump voters, raging at the president. 'Hey, Donald Trump, man, it just cost me $179 to fill up my diesel!' shouts a shirtless trucker at the top of his lungs. 'Six-dollar diesel is killing truck drivers!' shouts another."
Heffernan points to a recent video by ex-Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Georgia) — a former Trump ally who is now a scathing critic — as a prime example of MAGA frustration over diesel prices.
In the video, posted on X on September 15, Greene argued, "This is Trump's fault … It's $8.49 for diesel in California. It's $6.59 in Georgia. I don't care if it's Georgia or California. It's way too high."
Greene, according to Hefferman, is "an intuitive grandmaster of the diesel class" and "has an especially keen eye for their issues: data centers, the Iran war, the Epstein files, and now diesel fuel."
Heffernan writes, "These are the issues Trump is dying on … By alienating the diesel class, Trump may have bitten the final hand that feeds him. Diesel is certainly the word to watch in these final weeks before the polls. If nothing else, it's excellent shorthand for the rambunctious MAGA coalition that political scientists have been trying to understand for a decade."