An earthquake catches GOP off guard in a county that voted 80% for Trump

DARDANELLE — The annual Mount Nebo Chicken Fry, a mainstay of Arkansas politics for generations, saw a break from tradition this year.

In election years, the Democratic and Republican parties usually rent two cabins as their headquarters for the day while they make their case to potential voters lured to the campground by carriage rides, live music and chicken dinners. This year, the Libertarian party rented the Republican cabin.

The problem wasn’t a lack of Republican presence or interest but due to party members having previous commitments, said former Yell County GOP chairman Clay Hooten, who manned a tent the party used instead during the Aug. 29 event.

Even so, the two cabins were surrounded by signs promoting Democratic and Libertarian candidates on the November ballot. Democrat and Libertarian candidates, T-shirts and buttons outnumbered those of Republicans throughout the chicken fry, an unusual sight in the heart of a county where President Donald Trump won nearly 80% of the vote two years ago.

The scene was a small but hopeful sign for Democrats, whose efforts to break Republicans’ lock on Arkansas politics have fallen short for more than a decade. But Trump’s growing unpopularity, a recent poll and national attention surrounding races for the U.S. House and Senate are fueling Democrats’ belief that there’s an opening even in the reddest of states in November.

“I’m tired of people going to the polls to vote against something,” said Kelly Grappe, the Democratic nominee for secretary of state. “I want to give people something to vote for, and I have a vision for this state where the people truly do have a voice.”

The party still faces long odds in Arkansas, where top Republican candidates far outpace their Democratic rivals in fundraising. And at a time when national Democrats and political observers see Senate races in Republican-led states like Texas and Kansas as competitive, Arkansas isn’t viewed the same way. The Cook Political Report classifies the state’s races for governor, U.S. Senate and U.S. House as “solid Republican.”

But, with less than two months before Election Day, Democrats are trying to capitalize on what could be the most favorable political environment they’ve seen in years.

US Senate race heats up

The biggest prize for Democrats would be the Senate seat held by Republican Tom Cotton, the chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee who easily won his second term in 2020 with no Democratic opponent.

He’s seeking a third term against Democrat Hallie Shoffner, a sixth-generation farmer who closed her family’s Jackson County soybean farm last year due to financial strain she attributes to the Trump administration’s tariffs.

An August poll from Talk Business & Politics and Hendrix College showed Shoffner with a slim lead over Cotton, within the margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points. Shoffner has also made national headlines for her campaign’s focus on her rural background, the increasing cost of living and portraying Cotton’s policy priorities as against Arkansans’ best interests.

Republicans have pushed back on the poll. Another poll from Washington D.C.-based J.L. Partners showed Cotton with a sizable lead over Shoffner, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

But the Talk Business poll has ramped up enthusiasm for Shoffner, said Cindy Henry, a retiree from North Little Rock who volunteers for the campaign two days a week.

“We’ll get 40 to 50 calls a day [from] all kinds of people wanting to be heard, with all kinds of issues: personal, medical, jobs, farms, you name it,” Henry said.

Cotton’s campaign emphasizes that he “helped pass the biggest middle-class tax cut in American history, cut regulations to drive down energy production costs, secured the border with President Trump, and fights for a stronger military, bringing home billions of dollars to Arkansas communities in the process,” a spokesperson said in a Friday email.

Two super PACs, America One and Arkansans for Democracy and Justice, have spent more than $3 million combined on text messages and ads assisting Cotton’s bid. His campaign portrays Shoffner as too far left for Arkansas, criticizing her for remarks she made this year supporting defunding Immigration and Customs Enforcement “as it exists right now.”

Cotton’s campaign has also repeatedly highlighted Shoffner’s past donations to 2024 Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris and Democratic U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York.

Shoffner said in an interview that her campaign is “all about Arkansas,” accusing Cotton of trying to find a scapegoat for voters’ frustrations.

“I want to be the kind of public servant that looks to the future, a better future, and moves forward to that future,” she said.

Cotton has consistently allied himself with Trump, whose approval rating in Arkansas and nationwide has declined as the costs of necessities and groceries remain high.

Henry said she’s seen this firsthand as someone on Social Security and managing her family’s farm in Lonoke. Her farming income has plummeted while tariffs have raised the costs of insurance and utilities, she said.

The Arkansans that have contacted Shoffner’s campaign headquarters “want solutions, not rhetoric” and are becoming disillusioned with Cotton’s “same old song and dance,” Henry said.

“We get people that call in that are Republicans that say, ‘I can’t vote for him. Tell me why I should vote for her,’” Henry said.

Libertarian Jeff Wadlin, who is garnering single-digit support in polls, is hoping that voter discontent with both parties could help him.

Wadlin’s candidacy is for “politically homeless” Arkansas voters who “feel like we should just be solving problems like neighbors, working together and not getting angry with each other over cultural issues,” he told the audience at the Mount Nebo Chicken Fry’s pie auction.

Central Arkansas House seat considered in play

All four of Arkansas’ Republican U.S. House members face challengers this year, but it’s the Little Rock area where Democrats are once again directing the most attention.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee recently added the 2nd District seat held by Rep. French Hill to its list of GOP seats it’s targeting. The Talk Business & Politics poll indicates that Chris Jones, the Democrat challenging Hill in central Arkansas’ 2nd District, has a slim lead over Hill within the margin of error.

This isn’t the first time national Democrats have touted the 2nd District as flippable. Past efforts by Democrats, including by state Sen. Clarke Tucker in 2018 and former state Sen. Joyce Elliott in 2020, have been unsuccessful. And a 2021 redistricting plan that moved some Pulaski County voters into other districts made it more favorable to Republicans.

In an Aug. 19 Fox News appearance, Hill said he’s confident he will win reelection because Arkansans “want to support the most conservative candidate in the race.” He denounced the Democratic Socialists of America in the same segment but did not attempt to tie them to Jones, the Democratic nominee for Arkansas governor in 2022.

But, like Shoffner, Jones has attracted national attention. He won Harris’ endorsement, and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg headlined a rally for Jones.

Jones said the poll numbers and support from outside Arkansas make him “cautiously optimistic and determined.” He says he often reminds voters that Hill’s voting record has aligned with Trump’s priorities, including the One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025, which is expected to cut rural Medicaid spending by $15.5 billion per year over the next decade.

“A lot of independents and Republicans are saying, ‘Okay, this is a bridge too far, it’s too much, and it’s time for a new direction,’” Jones said.

Hill said in a Friday email that he’s heard some of the same frustrations from voters: “that the cost of living is out of control, houses are too expensive, filling up the gas tank isn’t affordable, and that Washington doesn’t care about what’s going on.”

He said he’s been “working tirelessly to address” the cost of living, mentioning his support for eliminating taxes on tips and overtime pay.

Hill also sponsored the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, a bipartisan bill that became law in July without Trump’s signature, removing some of the regulations on housing manufacturing and bank loans for homebuyers.

Libertarian spoilers?

A major question surrounding Arkansas’ midterm elections is the impact Libertarians could have.

The most prominent of the party’s candidates, gubernatorial hopeful Colt Shelby, had the stage to himself at the Mount Nebo Chicken Fry’s pie auction.

Neither Republican Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders nor her Democratic opponent, state Sen. Fred Love of Mabelvale, was present at the chicken fry.

Shelby is from Franklin County, a typically Republican-voting area frustrated by the Sanders administration’s attempt to build a 3,000-bed prison in the county. He told the Mount Nebo audience that he takes “a common-sense approach” to running for office, which he’s never done before.

“You will not find anybody in this race that will work harder, smarter, better,” Shelby said.

Aaron Bratton, a physician from Russellville, said he’s voting for Shelby because “it’s time for an outsider” who isn’t “politically connected” to be governor because “neither major party represents people anymore.”

Sanders, whose campaign has more than $4.7 million in the bank, hasn’t engaged much with either Shelby or Love. She skipped a gubernatorial debate featuring the two at the Arkansas Press Association’s convention this year. Four years after launching her first campaign with a video prominently featuring Trump, her ads this year so far have focused on state issues like tax cuts and healthcare.

Stele James, who has held leadership roles with the Yell County Democratic Party, said he believes Shelby has a real chance of winning as “that moderate candidate right there on the ground.”

“I see my Republican friends and people on my side that are flocking to his campaign because they’re tired of the divisive nature that the two-party system has produced,” said James, the president of the Two Rivers School District board.

James said he’s also excited about Grappe’s campaign for secretary of state.

Grappe’s GOP opponent is state Sen. Kim Hammer of Benton, who sponsored several 2025 laws placing restrictions on citizens’ ability to change laws and the state constitution via ballot measures. Some of those laws were blocked in federal court on First Amendment grounds last month.

The secretary of state’s duties include oversight of the ballot initiative process, which Grappe said is “absolutely rigged against the people.” She also said she’s met many voters who don’t know what the secretary of state does, and she sees this as a failure of the office’s civic education arm.

Meeting with voters at Mount Nebo, Grappe wore a hat emblazoned with the state’s motto: Regnat populus, Latin for “the people rule.”

Arkansas’ voter turnout has frequently been among the lowest nationwide. This might be due to a shortage of choices that invigorate voters rather than “voter apathy,” said Michael Pakko, chairman of the Libertarian Party of Arkansas and the party’s nominee for secretary of state.

The party is also fielding candidates for lieutenant governor, commissioner of state lands, a handful of state legislative seats and the 1st and 3rd U.S. Congressional Districts.

“I hope that we’ve given you enough choices this year,” Pakko told Mount Nebo attendees.