Political historian who predicted Trump’s 2016 upset explains why he’s going to crash and burn in 2020

Political historian who predicted Trump’s 2016 upset explains why he’s going to crash and burn in 2020
President Donald J. Trump disembarks Air Force Two Monday, Oct. 28, 2019, at O’Hare International Airport in Chicago and is met by supporters. (Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead)

Allan Lichtman, a political historian who teaches at American University in Washington, D.C., became famous for correctly predicting President Donald Trump’s upset win four years ago.


But in a new interview with The New York Times, Lichtman makes the case that Trump appears very unlikely to win a second term as the country has been racked for months by the coronavirus pandemic, high unemployment, and civil unrest.

Lichtman goes through multiple factors that he says are “keys” to predicting outcomes of presidential races, including the fact that Trump’s party lost the House of Representatives in 2018, the economy has entered into a recession, and there has been “considerable” social unrest over the past three months.

While the president does have some things going in his favor, including the avoidance of major foreign policy disasters and having an opponent who is not particularly charismatic, Lichtman argues that those aren’t enough to outweigh the other hurdles the president is facing.

“The keys predict that Trump will lose the White House,” he said.

Watch the video below.

#story_page_ below_article

Understand the importance of honest news ?

So do we.

The past year has been the most arduous of our lives. The Covid-19 pandemic continues to be catastrophic not only to our health - mental and physical - but also to the stability of millions of people. For all of us independent news organizations, it’s no exception.

We’ve covered everything thrown at us this past year and will continue to do so with your support. We’ve always understood the importance of calling out corruption, regardless of political affiliation.

We need your support in this difficult time. Every reader contribution, no matter the amount, makes a difference in allowing our newsroom to bring you the stories that matter, at a time when being informed is more important than ever. Invest with us.

Make a one-time contribution to Alternet All Access, or click here to become a subscriber. Thank you.

Click to donate by check.

DonateDonate by credit card
Donate by Paypal

Don't Sit on the Sidelines of History. Join Alternet All Access and Go Ad-Free. Support Honest Journalism.