Political historian who predicted Trump’s 2016 upset explains why he’s going to crash and burn in 2020

Political historian who predicted Trump’s 2016 upset explains why he’s going to crash and burn in 2020
President Donald J. Trump disembarks Air Force Two Monday, Oct. 28, 2019, at O’Hare International Airport in Chicago and is met by supporters. (Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead)

Allan Lichtman, a political historian who teaches at American University in Washington, D.C., became famous for correctly predicting President Donald Trump’s upset win four years ago.


But in a new interview with The New York Times, Lichtman makes the case that Trump appears very unlikely to win a second term as the country has been racked for months by the coronavirus pandemic, high unemployment, and civil unrest.

Lichtman goes through multiple factors that he says are “keys” to predicting outcomes of presidential races, including the fact that Trump’s party lost the House of Representatives in 2018, the economy has entered into a recession, and there has been “considerable” social unrest over the past three months.

While the president does have some things going in his favor, including the avoidance of major foreign policy disasters and having an opponent who is not particularly charismatic, Lichtman argues that those aren’t enough to outweigh the other hurdles the president is facing.

“The keys predict that Trump will lose the White House,” he said.

Watch the video below.

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