U.S. President Donald J. Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, China on May 15, 2026. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok/Flickr)
Much of the criticism of U.S. President Donald Trump's foreign policy is focused on his war against Iran, and quite a few Trump critics are arguing he is hurting the United States militarily by undermining its relationships with longtime allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). But according to author Robert D. Kaplan, known for his military and foreign policy analysis, another geopolitical crisis is brewing under Trump with Mainland China.
Kaplan, in an op-ed for The New York Times, argues, "Before Iran, before Iraq, before Afghanistan, there is no country that America has gotten as wrong as China. If this is mystifying, it is only because historical memories are short. America struggled through the previous fiascos. Getting it wrong again would be catastrophic. This is why it is crucial that President Trump strike the right balance in his summit this week with China's leader, Xi Jinping."
The U.S., Kaplan argues, has a long history of misunderstanding Mainland China and was taken aback when the country, under Mao Tse Tung, became communist in 1949. And in 2026, according to Kaplan, Trump is the one dropping the ball with China.
"For the first time since 1972," Kaplan writes, "the Shanghai Communiqué may be in particularly serious danger. There have been slip-ups, as when President Joe Biden declared he would defend Taiwan, thus abandoning the Nixon formula of ambiguity. But generally, presidents exercised rhetorical restraint. That is no longer the case in the Trump administration, with the president's stated position on Taiwan and the Asia-Pacific forever volatile. As for China, it is no longer governed by a mandarinate of enlightened communist leaders, but by Mr. Xi, a Leninist totalitarian with openly aggressive designs on Taiwan. The guideposts are wobbling."
Kaplan continues, "Despite the happy talk at summits, we are back to the Who Lost China era, when fundamental mistakes are possible, this time with incalculable consequences. In addition, because neither China nor the United States seems interested in cooperating to regulate AI, competition over the technology is poised to further destabilize the relationship."
According to Kaplan, the "ultimate geopolitical catastrophe" for the U.S. "would be a military conflict over Taiwan and the South China Sea."
"Wars in Ukraine, Gaza and Iran have led to severe differences of opinion among both the public and the elites, but have not fundamentally changed our lives," Kaplan notes. "A high-end military conflict in the Western Pacific fought between the world's largest economies would disrupt the most vital supply chains and change our world profoundly. The comparison with World War I is not an exaggeration … No geopolitical conflict in the world today has the capacity, if miscalculated, of bringing ruin upon us all like the one between the United States and China. China tore through our domestic politics three-quarters of a century ago. It could be worse this time."
