It looks like Trump may have finally overplayed his hand

Trump’s war in Iran is entering its third month. Gas is $1.50 more at the pump than it was before February 28. Other prices are rising. The American economy is showing signs of the dreaded stagflation (the combination of inflation and stagnation that’s difficult to overcome). There’s a loud outcry over revelations about Trump’s self-dealing, including his $1.8 billion slush fund and permanent immunity from any IRS audits of him and his family.

Given all this, some political observers I rely on tell me Trump has finally overplayed his hand. He’s a lame duck who’s now facing the beginning of the end. His power is disappearing. Not all political observers I’ve been consulting agree.

Hence, this week’s Office Hours question: In your view, has Trump finally overplayed his hand, and, if so, what are the likely consequences for him, America, and the world?

I’ve grouped the responses I’ve received from seasoned political observers into several categories, which I’ve summarized below. I’d appreciate your thoughts.

1. Yes, congressional Republicans in particular have finally had it with him and are rebelling, with grave consequences for him and his agenda.

Last week, Senate Republicans gave a closed-door standing ovation to Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, whom Trump vanquished in a primary. Trump’s beef with Cassidy was that Cassidy had voted to convict Trump in Trump’s impeachment trial for his role in the January 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol.

Although most Senate Republicans had been unwilling to follow Cassidy then, last week they rebelled at the idea of giving funds to rioters who attacked the Capitol. “So the nation’s top law enforcement official is asking for a slush fund to pay people who assault cops?” Senator Mitch McConnell, the former Senate Majority Leader, said. “Utterly stupid, morally wrong — take your pick.”

They’re also furious at Trump’s decision to back Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in Texas’s high-stakes Senate race over their colleague incumbent senior Sen. John Cornyn — who has always voted exactly as Trump has wanted. They worry that Paxton will lose to Democrat James Talarico because of Paxton’s history of legal and ethical controversies: abuse-of-office allegations from his top staff, a securities fraud indictment, impeachment by the Republican Texas House, and an ongoing divorce initiated by his wife, who alleges adultery. Republicans say Trump’s endorsement of Paxton has alienated lawmakers on Capitol Hill and turned off major GOP donors who’ll be critical in the midterms.

This rebellion of Republican senators also jeopardizes the rest of Trump’s legislative agenda, including his second “reconciliation” bill and his $1 billion ballroom. It could even tempt some Senate Republicans to join Democrats in convicting him of impeachable offenses, should Dems retake Congress in 2027.

The situation isn’t much better for Trump among House Republicans. Last Thursday, House Speaker Mike Johnson sent representatives home a day early to keep members from passing a war powers resolution that would order Trump to remove U.S. troops from his war on Iran. And Republican Representative Thomas Massie (who last week lost his primary after Trump backed his opponent) said that he’d name more names from the Epstein files.

2. Yes, Republican voters are finally seeing the light, and many are deciding to vote for a Democratic candidate in the midterms or not vote at all. Most other voters have by now firmly rejected him.

Other close political observers tell me the biggest change over the last month has occurred among voters — including many Republicans — who have now had it with Trump. The likely consequence is a Democratic takeover of the House and possibly the Senate in the midterm elections.

Because of inflation and the war in Iran, Trump’s approval among Republicans has fallen to its lowest level of his second term. He promised to bring down prices and avoid foreign entanglements, and he’s done the opposite.

This low rating within his own party is remarkable because Republican backing of Trump has been more stable than that of independents or Democrats. “Despite consistently strong GOP support, the president’s numbers are leaking,” says Republican pollster Daron Shaw. “Independents jumped ship in 2025, and now non-MAGA Republicans and other core constituencies are wavering.” A majority of Republicans (51 percent) now disapprove of Trump’s performance on inflation, compared with even higher levels among independents (85 percent) and Democrats (96 percent).

More broadly, Trump’s popularity has plunged with voters. A Fox News poll conducted from May 15 to May 18 shows 61 percent of Americans disapprove of Trump’s performance (including 48 percent who said they strongly disapprove), while only 39 percent approve overall. This is the highest disapproval rating ever recorded in the Fox News polls. The poll shows disapproval of Trump’s handling of the economy rising from 56 percent a year ago to 71 percent now — the highest level in the polling series. On inflation, just 24 percent approve of Trump’s performance, down from 35 percent in January.

3. No. Trump hasn’t overplayed his hand because he still maintains an iron grip on the Republican Party and on non-college rural voters, and he has the support of a majority of the Supreme Court.

Other political observers whom I rely on disagree. They tell me that any “rebellion” by Senate Republicans, or unhappiness of voters (including a bare majority of Republican voters), is irrelevant because Trump remains in power, he has an iron grip on the Republican Party, and he assumes he no longer needs Congress anyway.

If the Democrats take control of the House after the midterms and hold hearings exposing more of Trump’s failings, he’ll just ignore them. In the unlikely event Democrats also take control of the Senate, he’ll still ignore them — or use them as foils, blaming them for the bad economy or any other longer-term negative outcomes of his war with Iran.

In the unlikely event that the House impeaches him and two-thirds of the Senate votes to convict him, he’ll dispute the result and take it to the Supreme Court, by which time his term is likely to be over anyway. (And the high court may well side with him in any event.)

4. No. In fact, he’s just getting started.

A few political observers tell me that Trump is just getting started. He will refuse to be a lame duck. Knowing that he’s facing the last two years of his presidency and his last opportunity to leave behind a “legacy,” he’ll be even more emboldened.

He will use his remaining time in office to go even further arresting and deporting people residing in the United States — not just those here illegally but also legal residents (green card or naturalized) merely accused of committing crimes or protesting against his regime, or who have done nothing other than live in Democratic-run cities and states.

He will also, according to these observers, go further in his belligerent foreign policy: taking over Cuba, seeking to occupy Greenland, demanding subservience from Canada and Mexico, and extending his “emergency” against suspected drug smugglers on the high seas.

My sources tell me that they expect Trump also to go further in seeking to leave his imprint on Washington, D.C. (his arch, ballroom, makeover of the Kennedy Center, etc.), his efforts to silence critics (including universities), and to make as much money for himself and his family as possible. Several told me they would not be surprised if he attempted to remain in office for a third term, if his health allows it. He figures this is his last chance, and there’s no way anyone or any institution can stop him.

So, what do you think? Has he finally overreached? What are the consequences?

Robert Reich is a professor of public policy at Berkeley and former secretary of labor. His writings can be found at https://robertreich.substack.com/.