President Donald Trump's ability to sway the 2026 midterms asserted itself when, on May 5, at least five of eight GOP primary challengers he endorsed unseated incumbents in Indiana State Legislature races. The incumbents Trump was angry with will not make it to the general election, but many Trump critics are warning that his ability to affect Republican primaries and his ability to affect general elections are two very different things. And according to Semafor, party insiders fear that maintaining Republican control of Congress isn't as a high a priority for Trump as it is for GOP lawmakers.
In Semafor, journalists Shelby Talcott and Burgess Everett report, "Trump is still facing questions from within the GOP about how determined he is to keep control of Congress, as he seeks longer-term, legacy-defining foreign policy achievements amid declining approval ratings."
A Republican insider, interviewed on condition of anonymity, told Semafor that Trump is "certainly not" motivated when it comes to the midterms "in the same way the rest of the party" is — adding, "His mission goes so far beyond one election cycle or one midterm.”
Although Trump is "increasingly engaged in the midterms," Talcott and Everett report, Republican insiders worry that his "choices won't always align with congressional Republicans' calculations" — and Trump pattern appears to be "trying to shape his legacy" rather than "anything else."
Trump, according to the insiders Semafor interviewed, appears to be focused on what benefits him personally rather than what benefits the Republican Party on the whole — including not losing either or both branches of Congress to Democrats in November. And he is being quite "selective" with his endorsements, Talcott and Everett note. For example, Trump has yet to make an endorsement in Texas' GOP U.S. Senate primary.
"Republicans might bristle at Trump choosing to stay out of certain races," the Semafor reporters observe, "but while the U.S. president has a strong hold over his party, he's not infallible. And he has his reasons for being so selective. In Texas or Georgia, it's not clear he can orchestrate a result like he pulled off in Kentucky. And the calculus is even more challenging in bluer states."