Republicans were already well aware that they were facing an uphill battle in their fight to retain the U.S. House and Senate, as well as many local state races, but until very recently the question of a seat being anything but “solid Republican” in retiree haven Florida was nothing to expect — until now.
One of the top political prediction websites in the country says Republican candidate Byron Donalds is the favorite for Florida governor, but politicos were shocked to see the nonpartisan organization shift some expectation toward Democrat David Jolly.
The Cook Political Report on Thursday moved the race from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican.”
“Florida Democrats had long been more bullish on the open governor’s race than the Senate contest. That’s in part because gubernatorial races are typically less nationalized than federal ones, but also because Democrats have a strong ticket in former GOP Rep. David Jolly and his running mate, former Democratic Rep. Gwen Graham,” reported Cook Political Report on Thursday. “While Jolly trails Trump-backed Rep. Byron Donalds by more than a 10-1 margin in fundraising, his ability to potentially reach out to independents and disaffected Republicans makes this a unique contest that could possibly become competitive.”
“With that in mind, we are moving this race from Solid to Likely Republican,” Cook continued. “Jolly would still need a significant financial boost to mount a robust statewide television campaign and have a real shot. For now, Donalds enjoys an overwhelming financial advantage.”
Jolly told reporters recently that he does need “resources to reach the mark, … that this is a cycle where you can get outspent 10:1 and still win.”
The Democrat also predicted that money was going to “come in” as President Donald Trump’s dismal polling and doldrum economy continued to push voters out of favor with Republicans.
Jolly served as the U.S. representative for Florida's 13th congressional district from 2014 to 2017 as a Republican, but after leaving office, he became a prominent Republican critic of Trump and later switched his party registration to run as a Democrat for the Florida governor’s race. He said much of his party switch had to do with the Republican Party’s cultlike devotion to Trump.
The Democratic Governors Association released a poll by conducted by Hart Research showing a statistical tie in the race, with Jolly at 46 percent and Donalds at 45 percent. Florida news reports other polls have shown Donalds up by at least five percentage points.
