U.S. Senator Markwayne Mullin, President Donald Trump's nominee to be Homeland Security secretary, before a Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee (REUTERS)
Nate Silver, cohost of Crooked Media’s “Still Counting” podcast and author of the “Silver Bulletin” newsletter, has been deftly recording the enduring and seemingly unbreakable relationship Republicans and GOP voters have had with President Donald Trump over the years
So, forgive him if he feels surprised to see it seemingly on the ropes this morning.
“If you have been in, like, a toxic relationship that maybe you didn't realize was toxic originally… sometimes just some little trigger reminds you that ‘I've put up with this s—— for a long time and this just, it's just not going to work.’ And you reach a point of no return, and I feel like the voters did that,” said Silver, speaking with Bulwark Publisher Sarah Longwell.
The Tuesday throw-down that tossed Republicans from their House and Senate majorities was a clear result of voters feeling “promises were broken,” according to polls, specific promises by Trump on gas prices, on foreign wars, on the Epstein files.
So much so that Trump and Republicans’ attacks on trans rights and other culture war issues could not save them as they seemingly had in the past.
“[It turns out] it's a distraction from the bad economy. I think it kind of, that almost doesn't work,” Silver told Longwell. “When people feel like their material conditions are not being taken care of, they don't give a f—— about culture wars, right? It's when they actually feel taken care of that you can win marginal voters on culture stuff because people have kind of like the luxury of thinking about that kind of thing.”
The stark reality facing the Republican Party this weekend, as voters continue to bump them from office days after the Tuesday rout, is the fact that “voters like the idea of Trump more than the reality of Trump,” said Silver. “And we're as far along in reality of Trump as we're going to get with an election on the ballot. And finally, Democrats get this incredibly cathartic and satisfying outcome, with a lot of cherries on top, too.”
But things could change in a few years as the political pendulum swings, if Democrats fail to accomplish voters’ agenda, Nate warned.
“I think you could have, maybe if Democrats win in 2028, you could have a GOP landslide in 2032. … [Likely Sen.] Scott Colom in Mississippi probably would be vulnerable in 2032 in a non-D+13 environment, but I think the partisan fever might be breaking a little bit,” said Silver. “… And it's partly generational, too. One thing that hasn't been talked about much is the Democratic Senate nominees are like 20 years younger on average than they were in the previous midterm. And voters are finally souring on the Clintons and the Cuomos and the Trumps and the Bushes and the Bidens, maybe even the Obamas a little bit, although he remains relatively popular.”
