On Thursday, following President Donald Trump’s speech at the Republican midterm convention in Dallas the previous evening, an editor at the Wall Street Journal was left worrying over the fact that there were “scores of empty seats.” As the Journal’s Damian Paletta wrote, “If Trump can’t fill a Dallas arena, can he turn out a November vote?”
“There were scores of empty seats in the upper tiers of the American Airlines Center for President Trump’s keynote address at the Republican convention,” noted Paletta. “And there were plenty of empty seats in the lower sections too. It was a five-hour drumroll of speakers leading up to the president’s remarks, but those seats never filled. The floor of the arena was rocking. That, in essence, represents his base of supporters. But those upper tiers and some of the other sections represent the difference makers in November. And they didn’t show up.”
This is the perfect “nutshell” explanation for the uphill battle Trump and Republicans face heading into the midterms. According to Paletta, “They need to, more than metaphorically, fill those seats. ‘Pretend I’m on the ballot,’ Trump told the arena during his speech, acknowledging that midterm elections can prove difficult for the party that controls the White House.” In Paletta’s assessment, Trump’s speech had lots of energy and “laugh lines,” but wondered, "Can that be enough?” Trump may not think so, because as Paletta notes, he promised every American adult $5000 if Republicans stay in power.
But this “bribe,” as many are characterizing it, seems unlikely to turn a tide that is already decidedly against the Republicans. Trump’s historic unpopularity has many forecasting that the Democrats will win a majority in the House and maybe even the Senate, but as many conservatives have worried, the president seems strangely unconcerned. He was already dragging Republicans down due to his spiraling war with Iran and its resulting economic consequences, and has recently made a number of unpopular moves, like starting a trade war with Canada. This has resulted in a flurry of abysmal polls for the GOP, which have shown that many of the key voting blocs that carried Trump to office in 2024 – like independents, blue-collar workers, and the “reluctant right” who voted against Kamala Harris – have turned against Republicans. Now, polling shows that Democrats outpace Republicans in terms of midterm enthusiasm.
What’s more, Trump has sown division within his own party by endorsing scandal-plagued candidates like Ken Paxton in Texas, which many Republicans worry has cost them what was previously considered a safely red state. Trump has also been hesitant to open the $400 million war chest accumulated by his Super PAC MAGA Inc., and has repeatedly criticized his own party for its inability to pass his much-demanded voter ID law. According to Paletta, this tension within the GOP was evidenced by “the crowd’s awkward booing of Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) halfway through Trump’s speech.”