On Wednesday, the Supreme Court issued rulings on several consequential cases, including a decision to strike down a Louisiana redistricting map from 2024. While Republicans are celebrating the decree, experts warn they may be “overselling” the victory.
The court sided with the Republican assertion that Louisiana’s recently drawn, Black-majority congressional district represented an unconstitutional attempt at racial gerrymandering. Now the GOP aims for a redrawn map that will save them from projected losses in the midterms and other future elections, with a post from Trump revealing conservative sentiments on the decision, declaring it a “BIG WIN.”
Experts, however, warn that this isn’t the victory Republicans seem to think it is.
“The math is not jiving with that kind of attitude,” said Cook Political Report analyst Matthew Klein. “I mean, it’s helpful for Republicans. But is it some seismic, permanent majority that will hand them the House for 40 years, like the Dems had in the latter half of the 1900s? No. It will move a few seats to the right.”
Redistricting battles have been raging across the country in an effort to shift the congressional balance of power. In the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision, experts have worked to calculate how it could impact the numbers in the lead-up to November’s midterms, in which the GOP is projected to take a major hit, likely losing its majority in the House and possibly even in the Senate. While Republicans hope the new ruling could help them offset such losses, those who have run the numbers say that even optimistically speaking, it’s not going to deliver the gains conservatives hope to see.
“The median outcome is probably one to two,” said Klein. “Possibly zero. Possibly, I suppose, as many as three to four in the very best-case scenario.” J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, came to a similar conclusion, explaining, “If Republicans are maximally aggressive in Louisiana, Tennessee, and South Carolina, they could gain up to four more seats this fall.”
While history has shown that four seats certainly can matter, with the past three House elections resulting in single-digit majorities, the fact is that even the best-case outcome for Republicans in Louisiana will likely be offset by Democratic gains in other states.
Nevertheless, Trump and his allies are hailing this as a big win, with the president thanking the justice who authored the decision, posting, “Thank you to brilliant Justice Samuel Alito for authoring this important and appropriate Opinion. Congratulations!”
Some analysts assert, however, that the decision represents the degradation of democracy, with Alito and Chief Justice John Roberts leading the reactionary charge.
“This is the culmination of Roberts’ and Alito’s hostility toward the landmark Voting Rights Act that they have harbored since early on in their careers,” said Lisa Graves, founder of True North Research. “They have been fully aligned and headed toward the same destination for years, eroding and ultimately destroying these vital protections.”
