U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping react as they hold a bilateral meeting at Gimhae International Airport, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, in Busan, South Korea, October 30, 2025.
As of Tuesday, according to President Donald Trump, the U.S. has “fully implemented” a blockade of the Hormuz Strait, which he claims will pressure Iran to relinquish control over the vital waterway and force favorable negotiation terms. While the Pentagon has touted turning away six ships and “completely” halting trade at Iranian ports, shipping data shows that the blockade has “barely affected” traffic through the strait, with at least eight vessels successfully making the passage, several of which were operated by Chinese or Russian companies, with at least one already under U.S. sanctions for previously transporting Iranian oil.
According to respected security analyst Brandon Weichert — author of multiple books on Iranian and Chinese efforts to achieve global power — this situation is not only “stupid,” but a sign that “Trump lost to China.”
Weichert’s assertion was attached to a Wednesday morning post from Trump in which he declared that “China is very happy” with his actions regarding the strait, and that Chinese President Xi Jinping will give him “a big, fat, hug” when they see each other. He claimed that the U.S. and China “are working together smartly,” capping off the message with a warning to “REMEMBER, we are very good at fighting.”
Weichert’s assessment was unequivocal.
“So, what's happening, is he lost to China,” said Weichert. “Just like I warned he would if he did this stupid counter-blockade… Very predictable. People in MAGA don't understand that China has us by the short-hair b/c of trade & rare earths.”
Weichert is referring to two key factors. In regard to trade, the U.S. relies on massive volumes of affordable manufactured goods exported from China, and at the same time, China is America’s top export market. This creates a status quo where the U.S. is largely dependent on Chinese production and purchasing.
On top of that, China is a key provider of rare earth materials that are critical for the U.S. automotive, defense, and semiconductor industries. While there are other sources for these materials, China controls nearly half the world’s reserves, and its existing mining and distribution infrastructure is difficult to compete with.
On a related note, China has just made a number of regulatory changes that will make it easier for its businesses and government to retaliate when threatened by U.S. and other foreign entities. This, according to experts, is an attempt to increase pressure ahead of an upcoming summit with Trump.
