U.S. President Donald Trump in White House in Washington, D.C., March 31, 2026. REUTERS/Evan Vucci
After State Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in Texas' Republican U.S. Senate primary, Mark McKinnon — a conversative consultant whose past clients included former President George W. Bush and the late Sen. John McCain (R-Arizona) — told MS NOW's Ana Cabrera that centrist Democratic nominee James Talarico is quite capable of going the distance in the general election. And McKinnon isn't the only conservative insider who believes that Republicans made a huge mistake by nominating Paxton instead of Cornyn. GOP strategist Brad Todd, during a Sunday appearance on CNN, argued that fellow Republicans made things much more difficult for themselves in the general election by choosing Paxton.
Todd told CNN, "I think the president made a 100-million-dollar mistake in picking Ken Paxton and urging Republican primary voters to vote for him. John Cornyn is a much more credible person. He is a much more moral person, and he also was going to be a shoo-in. I think Ken Paxton is a real lift, and I think it was a mistake."
Well-known conservatives who believe that Texas' U.S. Senate race is in play for Democrats include Washington Post columnist George Will, Sarah Matthews (who served as deputy White House press secretary in the first Trump Administration) and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-South Dakota).
Before the nominees were chosen, Matthews told MS NOW that while Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) was too progressive to win statewide in GOP-leaning Texas, Talarico would have a shot if Republicans went with Paxton instead of Cornyn. And the scenario that Matthews thought would be best for Democrats — Paxton against Talarico in the general election — is now a reality.
Meanwhile, far-right MAGA Republican Steve Bannon — who hosts the "War Room" vodcast and served as White House chief strategist in the first Trump Administration — is warning that the general election is going to be "very tough" for Paxton but believes he can win by "five-plus" if he plays his cards right.
In recent decades, Democrats have struggled badly in statewide races in Texas —where a Democrat hasn't won statewide since 1994.
Although Democrats dominate Texas' major urban centers — including Houston, Austin, Dallas and El Paso — and perform well in certain congressional districts, they struggle in Lone Star gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races. However, former Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-Texas) came within striking distance of Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) in the 2018 midterms, narrowly losing in the end. And McKinnon views Talarico, a Presbyterian seminarian, as a very strong candidate despite Texas' conservative leanings.
McKinnon told Cabrera, "(The Republicans are running) a really unpopular Republican nominee in Ken Paxton. This is going to be a good versus evil (battle). And I think that Talarico is a just a different kind of candidate. He talks about values and he can out-Bible the Republicans."
