Trump is trapped and has 'no way' out

Iran has successfully throttled the Strait of Hormuz for months now, over the course of which President Donald Trump has declared the vital waterway “open” or otherwise controlled by the U.S. “on at least two dozen occasions.” But regardless of his claims, Trump is now in an “intractable situation” from which he has “no way” out. This is according to journalist Judd Legum, who on Tuesday explained precisely why Trump finds himself between a rock and a hard place.

On Monday, Trump once again declared that “the Hormuz Strait is OPEN, and will remain OPEN, with or without Iran.” As Legum notes, however, not only is Trump’s claim false, but he made it while simultaneously announcing that the U.S. would undertake an effort to blockade Iranian ships while charging a 20 percent fee on cargo passing through, “but it’s unclear how any of this accomplishes the goal of opening the strait or bringing down the cost of energy. In response to Trump’s announcement, energy prices spiked.”

According to Legum, “This outcome was entirely predictable. Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz as a response to foreign aggression for 50 years. Four months later, the Trump administration still has not identified an effective strategy to reopen the strait. Instead, Trump simply asserts that the Strait of Hormuz is open or under U.S. control — over and over again. Trump shifted abruptly between claiming the strait would open soon, claiming the strait was already open, and claiming the strait was closed only because he decided to close it. At no point were any of these claims accurate.”

While the Trump administration, via the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, announced it “will insure losses up to $40 billion for tankers brave enough to transit the Strait of Hormuz,” this has failed to entice the vast majority of shippers to take the risk. As Legum explains, “Iran has closed or severely restricted traffic in the Strait of Hormuz using a combination of mines, anti-ship missiles, drones, and small high-speed attack boats. The U.S. military has been unable to effectively counter these measures, despite its massive budget and superior capabilities. Iran can create enough uncertainty to dissuade transit through the strait with cheap, haphazard tactics.”

With all this in mind, “Trump now finds himself in an intractable situation. His only apparent avenue for opening the strait is to get Iran to agree to open the strait. But Iran has come to the conclusion that its control of the strait is its best leverage against the United States and other enemies.”

“That leaves Trump with no way to open the Strait of Hormuz and no way to extricate himself from an unpopular war while the strait remains closed,” concludes Legum. “The Trump administration’s failure to anticipate Iran’s response to a U.S. attack was one of the biggest military blunders in recent history. American consumers will likely pay the price for years to come.”