In the early weeks of his war against Iran, President Donald Trump declared that the Iranians had “no cards” to play. First, it turned out that Iran had a major card in the form of the Strait of Hormuz, which it blocked with major economic consequences for the world. Now more than six weeks later, Axios reports that “Iran has more cards to play” than the president would like to admit, specifically in relation to the U.S. attempt to impose its own blockade on the vital waterway.
As Axios notes, “Oil is Iran's economic lifeblood, and President Trump hopes blocking exports — which eventually causes production to halt — will force concessions.” But two key factors disrupt Trump’s plan.
First, Iran has more oil storage capacity than was thought. Estimates made during the first half of April asserted that the country could only store enough oil to maintain production for two weeks, but this has proven false. According to Antoine Halff, chief analyst with the climate and energy data analytics firm Kayrros, "Iran's experience in building stocks during the Covid crisis, available space at other facilities, and efforts to increase alternate storage and export facilities over the past 10 years” has readied it to hold a backstock of oil, which prolongs its ability to continue producing crude even if it’s barred from export. What’s more, Iran has 20 Very Large Crude Carriers capable of holding 2 million barrels that can be easily repurposed for use as floating storage, which would allow the country to continue production for another two months.
Speaking of ships, that brings the second issue: the ineffectiveness of the U.S. blockade. While it was assumed that Iran would be unable to export through the blockade, Iranian ships have been managing to make it through, maintaining a steady flow of revenue to the regime. At the same time, Iran has been smuggling oil overland and in smaller tankers that are harder to block.
"Even if the US blockade is completely successful — and, importantly, right now it isn't — IRGC would be able to rely on these alternatives to keep its troops paid and its position in Iran secure,” says Gregory Brew of the Eurasia Group.
While White House officials like Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have asserted the blockade’s success, claiming Iran faces oil production shut-in, not only has the country managed to sell oil, but it has proven an ineffective means of forcing the regime to negotiate.
All of this means that the Iranian regime is better equipped to hold out in the face of U.S. pressure than was once thought. And as the war drags on, Americans are making it clear that they do not want it — and Trump is suffering at the polls as a result.
