A person attends the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) USA 2026 at the Gaylord Texan Resort and Convention Center, in Grapevine, Texas, U.S., March 27, 2026. REUTERS Daniel Cole
The BBC compiled a list of large trades taking place mere hours, or even minutes, before market-moving news from the White House about Iran attacks, and iPaper columnist Mark Wallace says some of Trump’s followers are having a hard time squaring themselves with the apparent suggestion of leaking corruption from the White House.
“In some cases, these were bets that oil prices would decrease shortly before announcements of victory or peace in the Gulf. In others, they were predictions that the stock market would rise, made just before news broke of a pause on tariffs,” said Wallace. “Perhaps least subtly, a Polymarket user made hundreds of thousands of dollars betting over New Year that Nicolás Maduro would be out of office in Venezuela by the end of January.”
Donald Trump Jr. is a strategic investor in and advisory board member for Polymarket
“The list goes on. What it means in sum is that a very few individuals and businesses are absolutely coining it in with highly accurate and extremely timely speculation that calls Trump’s decisions correctly. This could be insider trading – a crime which, while notoriously hard to prosecute, carries serious penalties,” said Wallace.
But many in Trump’s MAGA base are having a difficult time if they voted for Trump expecting a swamp draining. To those, the looming specter of Trump’s corruption is “MAGA’s worst nightmare.”
“They wanted to ‘drain the swamp’ and smash the elite in Washington, sticking it to the gilded and glittering celebrity-political complex, which they felt was getting rich while they suffered in what Trump once called ‘American carnage,’” wrote Wallace, but “the debasement of Trump the man has contaminated and debased the office which he occupies, and now debases the standards we expect from the Government which he leads.”
“The headline ‘corruption allegations about White House’ now holds the same capacity to surprise as research into the toilet habits of bears living in forested areas,’ said Wallace, but while many reformed MAGA are knocking their heads against what looks like a swamp problem in the White House, Trump has hardly been held account for past actions.
“It’s certainly the case that his approval ratings have been falling like a tire with a slow puncture, … but bearing in mind that this is a ‘grab them by the p——,’ alleged philanderer who compares himself to Christ yet still maintains the support of fans who call themselves god-fearing Christians, I wouldn’t bet on it shifting his core vote completely.”
“If you did, you wouldn’t make as much money as those mysterious people betting on the contents of his tweets anyway,” said Allen.
