U.S. President Donald Trump gestures during a visit to Verst Logistics in Hebron, Kentucky, U.S., March 11, 2026. REUTERS Kevin Lamarque
The Washington Post reports U.S. states with some of the most competitive congressional races in the nation are now “caught in the crosshairs of President Donald Trump’s escalating trade war with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney,” and the GOP senators are flummoxed.
While the average American may not feel the tariffs, key industries in places like Maine, Michigan, Iowa, Ohio and Pennsylvania are likely to feel the added costs, said the Post, and this appears to be complicating Republicans running in competitive House and Senate races in those states, according to GOP analysts.
“Donald Trump was elected in part to bring down inflation and juice the economy,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican political consultant in Washington. “Anything that works opposite of those goals is not helpful for any Republican running this year.”
Brent Buchanan, founder of the Republican polling firm Cygnal, said Trump’s trade war is giving Republican candidates further reason to separate themselves from the president, whose approval ratings have dropped as gas prices have risen as a result of his war with Iran.
“With this being so salient to the states closer to the Canadian border, it’s a way for them to say, ‘I’m standing up for you — above the president, above Congress, above Canada, above anybody,’” said Buchanan.
Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wisconsin) claims Canada has been “jamming our dairy industry for a long period of time,” Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) is fighting hard to ward off a Democratic takeover of her seat in a state that is steadily getting more critical of Trump.
Collins has called Trump’s trade war with neighboring Canada a “mistake,”
Meanwhile several Michigan auto suppliers and Maine lumber companies have locations on both sides of the border, reports the Post. Iowa has close agricultural trade ties with Canada, including exports of farm machinery.
Trump amped up the trade war between the two ally nations in July, when he announced that he would impose 50 percent tariffs on some Canadian goods. The new 50 percent tariffs took effect late last month after negotiations between the two countries collapsed, with alcohol, dairy products and a list of other Canadian imports getting hit with new fees for U.S. consumers. Then Canada retaliated on Sept. 8 with new tariffs on U.S. goods, including aluminum, dairy, agricultural equipment, plastics, paper products and appliances.
Trump later announced new bans on the import of some Canadian alcohol, motorcycles, molasses and other products beginning Sept. 29.
But Michigan did more than $66 billion in trade with Canada last year, according to the Post, and it has a “closely intertwined manufacturing sector” that regularly exchanges products with neighboring Ontario. This means Canadian tariffs on American steel and aluminum, nuts and bolts, rods for steering wheels and other small parts will boost costs for manufacturers who are “already worn out after years of supply chain disruptions from the covid-19 pandemic and changing federal policy on electric vehicles.”
“I think we reached fatigue about a month ago,” said Glenn Stevens, executive director of MichAuto, an advocacy group for the state’s auto industry, speaking with the Post. “It’s a difficult business.”
This leaves Michigan Senate candidates like Mike Rogers — who is running for an open seat against Democrat Abdul El-Sayed — tottering on the edge of embracing Trump while criticizing him for his disapproving voters. In August, Rogers wrote in a post on X that Trump “is right to put America First” but that “trade isn’t one-size-fits-all.” And he pledged to work with Trump “to broker a fair deal with Canada” that supports Michigan farms, automakers and manufacturing.
For Republican candidates, the chaotic trade war “injects an issue they probably thought they never had to deal with,” said John Truscott, founder of Michigan PR firm Truscott Rossman and who once served as a spokesperson for Michigan Gov. John Engler. “As a candidate, when you want to be on offense on things, this adds a vulnerability.”
