Democrats are betting controversial candidate Graham Platner is their best chance to unseat U.S. Senator Susan Collins, the Maine Republican who has not lost a race since she first won her seat in 1996. But scandal could sink his campaign even after Tuesday’s primary, handing Collins a clearer path to a sixth term.
Bloomberg opinion columnist Ronald Brownstein writes that the voting will “illuminate the one thin path that could allow” Democrats to “avoid that fate.”
“Polls show that Collins and Trump are both weaker in Maine today than during her last reelection in 2020, which could allow even Platner to beat her,” Brownstein writes. “Yet the oysterman’s many vulnerabilities increase the odds that, as during that 2020 race, Collins could improbably survive in this blue-trending state.”
According to Brownstein, Platner’s scandals may not be his only vulnerability.
He needs to win over Maine voters who disapprove of Trump. “In the 2018 and 2020 elections, the exit polls found that every Democratic Senate incumbent and challenger nationwide won at least 89% of voters who disapproved of Trump — except in Maine, where Sara Gideon, Collins’ 2020 opponent, won only 71% of them.”
A recent poll, taken before his latest scandal, shows Platner only winning 74% of them.
Brownstein explains that if Platner were to decide to drop out of the race by July 13, the Democratic Party would be allowed to replace him on the November election ballot. He notes that currently running for governor are several candidates who likely would meet the expectations of Platner’s coalition.
One of three candidates currently running for governor could replace Platner should he drop out before the July deadline.
“Former State Senate President Troy Jackson, a fifth-generation logger with deep working-class roots, has been endorsed in the governor’s race by the state AFL and Senator Bernie Sanders and would probably be the easiest replacement for Platner supporters to accept,” says Brownstein. “Secretary of State Shenna Bellows (who has greatly raised her stature since she lost her 2014 Senate race to Collins) and former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree (who might be the strongest statewide candidate of the three) also have many liberal supporters.”
Maine progressive activists in their conversations with Brownstein remain dedicated to Platner. “But each offered only praise for Jackson, Bellows and Pingree.”
The stakes for Democrats are high — and not only for Maine. Collins’ seat is considered must-win if Democrats are to retake control of the Senate.
“If Democrats don’t flip Maine, they will need to capture Senate seats in at least three states that Trump won by double digits in 2024,” says Brownstein. “That’s a daunting task.”
