U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters as he departs for travel to Texas to tour areas affected by deadly flash flooding, from the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., July 11, 2025.
President Donald Trump needs Republicans to retain control of the Senate so that he does not face investigations and a halting stop to his legislative agenda. Yet there are already signs that he is in trouble in key swing states, from the low turnout in Texas Republican primaries (where the GOP is in some places reducing the number of polling places) to Trump’s endorsement of a vulnerable candidate in Georgia.
Now a prominent Republican strategist broke down how those two states specifically, Georgia and Texas, truly highlight Trump’s vulnerabilities.
“In the five other battlegrounds, Democrats raised more money and have more cash on hand. The problem for Republicans is acute in Texas and Georgia,” The Wall Street Journal's contributor Karl Rove wrote on Wednesday. Rove previously was a top political adviser to the previous Republican in the White House, President George W. Bush. “In the Lone Star State, the Democrat raised $68.6 million with $21.6 million cash on hand, while the Republican raised $9.2 million and has $1.8 million in the bank. The Peach State’s Democrat raked in $98 million and holds $42.6 million; the Republican collected $7.4 million and retains $2.1 million.”
Earlier in the editorial, Rove broke down why these data points matter.
“The most recent Federal Election Commission reports on the nine most competitive Senate races show Democrats outraising Republicans in seven and with more cash on hand in five,” Rove wrote. “Of these races—Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas—Democrats must win seven to take the Senate,” Rove wrote. “Excluding Maine, where Democrat Troy Jackson replaced Graham Platner as a Senate candidate less than two weeks ago and has yet to report his fundraising, Senate Democrats told the FEC they’ve raised $290 million, while Republicans have brought in $196.8 million. More important, Democrats have $117.3 million cash on hand to the Republicans’ $85.3 million.”
He added, “The GOP can claim some sort of fundraising advantage in only four Senate races. Republican candidates in Iowa and Maine appear ahead both in total fundraising and cash on hand. Maine’s Mr. Jackson has said he received $2 million within three days of his selection and had raised $1 million before the convention that picked him. Republican Senate candidates in Alaska and Michigan were outraised overall but have more cash on hand.”
Ultimately, Rove warned that having a fundraising advantage does not automatically guarantee that one candidate will prevail over another. Yet in particularly close races, such as those expected in Texas between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton or in Georgia between Democrat Jon Ossoff and Republican Mike Collins, fundraising could be the turning point in determining who wins.
“Whichever party comes out with a bigger pot of cash, money is no guarantee of victory,” Rove wrote. “Good candidates, appealing visions, voter enthusiasm, capable organization and the national environment will each have a strong effect. But in that post-Labor Day sprint, money could tilt the balance—and the president has plenty of it.”
