It has been nearly 25 years since the protests broke out across the U.S. in opposition to the Iraq war. Despite fierce opposition and the largest global protests in history, as the BBC said, the recent "No Kings" protest is closing in on those numbers.
Writing for the iPaper, The Independent's editor-in-chief, Simon Kelner, said that President Donald Trump has inadvertently inspired millions to stand in opposition to his government.
"They represented a recognition that some of the things Americans believed in most deeply – the primacy of their Constitution, trust in their system as a beacon of democracy, and the essential decency and fairness of their politics – are being degraded by the Trump Presidency, and that it was time to take to the streets in their millions," wrote Kelner.
Unlike other moments that target specific issues, "No Kings" is a kind of all-encompassing campaign that is "essentially an anti-authoritarian coalition; this movement has a more European flavor to it," he said.
While there were the "Black Lives Matter" protests in 2020 and the civil rights marches in the 1960s, Kelner noted that this year "marks something of a watershed" with mass demonstrations that have become "a new reality." Meanwhile, the public doesn't "trust the system any longer to defend them against the wild overreach of a rogue US President."
Ironically, he said, it may be that Trump's biggest legacy is "that he has radicalized his nation." It's particularly rich given that the entire MAGA movement began as an anti-establishment movement.
Kelner noted that history tells the world that marches don't change regimes or even force political leaders to rethink policies. Trump mocked the "No Kings" protest and called rally-goers "whacked out." The rallies were "very small, very ineffective," Trump claimed. But the count was anywhere between 8 and 9 million people, reports said.
Erica Chenoweth, a professor at the Harvard Kennedy School, researched protest movements after 1900 to determine which were the most successful. What she found she calls the "3.5 percent rule."
"Nonviolent protests are twice as likely to succeed as armed conflicts – and those engaging a threshold of 3.5 percent of the population have never failed to bring about change," her report said. For the "No Kings" crowd to reach that, they need to turn out about 12 million people at the next march. It would eclipse the anti-Iraq war protests.
Even though the recent rallies didn't reach the 3.5 percent threshold, Kelner urged Trump World not to underestimate their significance.
"While it may seem to be an inchoate, leaderless movement, a threshold has been crossed for the American people. The willingness of this administration to ride roughshod over judicial orders defiles both the spirit and letter of that holiest of sacraments – the Constitution of the United States – and, for innately polite and quiescent people and, above all, a nation united only under that constitution, resistance would appear to be the only option," said Kelner.
"Make no mistake," Kelner closed, there are now many, many Americans who see Trump's administration as a challenge to a 250-year-old way of life. "Are we about to witness an American Spring? It’s not such a daft question."
