President Donald Trump is "being played by Iran" amid ongoing peace talks, one retired colonel warned in a piece The Hill, and it is a reality he has to accept in order for his war to achieve any lasting goals.
Jonathan Sweet is a retired lieutenant colonel with three decades of service as an intelligence officer, and now frequently contributes op-eds for The Hill, co-written by national security reporter Mark Toth. On Thursday, their latest piece chastised Trump for his approach to the war in Iran, claiming that he is "struggling to understand modern asymmetrical warfare" and clinging to outdated notions of what a military victory looks like.
"He keeps trying to define victory in Iran as the defeat of the country’s conventional navy, air force, and army, as if they were the only source of the regime’s power," Sweet and Toth wrote. "They are not, yet Trump keeps trying to prematurely declare victory on those terms. He did it again on Tuesday, with a word-for-word reposting of his May 18 rant on Truth Social slamming the media and his opponents for claiming Iran is winning its war against the U.S. and Israel. Conventionally speaking, Iran is not winning. Nonetheless, Iran — as it has for decades — defines winning differently."
For decades, they explained, Iran has been pushing to develop "proxy armies," such as "Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and other Shia militias across the Middle East," in order to direct any conflicts away from themselves and "protect the development of [their] nuclear weapons program." The pair warned that Trump, amid the severe backlash he is receiving for the war at home and abroad, is dangerously close to retreating without meaningfully halting Iran's nuclear ambitions.
"Now, under immense economic and political pressure at home, Trump is in danger of fleeing without resolving Iran’s nuclear Armageddon-in-the-making," Sweet and Toth continued. "Yes, he keeps denying that is the case, as when he said on Memorial Day that Iran 'will never have a nuclear weapon.' But his negotiating tactics are beginning to suggest otherwise."
They added later: "Trump is now apparently willing to initially enter into a memorandum of understanding that starts with reopening the Strait of Hormuz, provides potential sanctions relief for Iran and leaves the nuclear issue unaddressed, save for some vague Iranian assurances that they will not pursue a nuke. Iran, in that vein, has flipped Trump’s negotiating script. He appears to be in danger of falling for it."
The pair warned that Trump must understand what Iran is actually doing in the conflict, "asymmetrically creating new regional lines of defense" in order to avoid further direct military conflicts away from itself, and commit to actual regime change.
"Trump, if he is to truly defeat Iran and put a permanent end to its quest for nukes, must not prematurely exit the fight," they concluded. "Unless, and until, there is true regime change in Iran, that threat will never go away no matter what memorandum or peace deal Tehran may sign. Plus, if Trump flees, he will create a strategic opening for China, which would effectively end or severely weaken U.S. hegemony in the Middle East. If that happens, Iran will become America’s greatest strategic defeat."
