President Donald Trump's Iran war has spiraled into a global economic disaster, and despite his claims, the "myth" that he is acting strategically is fading fast. A new breakdown from MS NOW revealed the three "reality checks" that the president will need to accept to even have the hope of fixing his own mess.
Writing on Wednesday, political science professor Nicholas Grossman argued that the "still-prevalent view" that Trump's erratic behavior is part of him strategically "playing 4D chess" has "reached its limit" with Iran, and a lot of people will need to accept some key truths moving forward.
The first reality check: "Economic disruption is already locked in and growing daily."
Trump and his administration are behaving as if the global economy will bounce right back into place once a deal is secured with Iran, and the U.S. stock market seems to be operating under that presumption as well. In reality, however, the damage is done and poised to worsen.
"[The] global economy is already broken and Trump can’t fix it," Grossman wrote. "The earthquake has hit; the ensuing tsunami just hasn’t reached our shores yet... Economic disruption is already locked in, even if the U.S. and Iran agree to open the strait tomorrow. The Pentagon says Iran-laid mines could take six months to remove. Then the shipping backlog has to clear. Only then will Hormuz be open. Even the best-case scenario for Trump involves considerable economic damage. And it doesn’t appear likely."
The second reality check: "There’s barely a peace process and the sides aren’t close."
"Trump is still issuing demands, such as total cessation of Iran’s nuclear program, as if the U.S. has more leverage," Grossman continued. "Meanwhile, Iran’s leadership — which at this point is predominantly comprised of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — demands concessions to reopen Hormuz, which had freedom of navigation before Trump attacked. No matter how many times Trump says Iran 'has no cards,' it clearly does, and with the pending global energy supply crunch, time is on its side."
He added: "The Trump White House has been so erratic, with a long record of reneging on promises and changing stances, that Iran can’t trust that the U.S. will honor any agreement rather than attack again in a few months. Under Trump, America has no credibility, which makes it hard to get a deal even if the Iranians wanted one."
The final reality check: "Events are mostly out of Trump’s control."
The truth of the matter in Iran is that the regime remains in control and has all the leverage when it comes to the Strait of Hormuz. However much he might claim to be all-powerful and able to get anything done, "Physical reality is real," and the U.S. cannot "pretend" its way out of its problems much longer.
"Some things are too big for Trump to lie his way through," Grossman explained. "[As] economic problems multiply over the coming months, reality will become increasingly unignorable. And unlike the pandemic, this crisis is entirely of Trump’s own making."
He concluded: "Contrary to popular myth, Trump was never good at business or at making deals. Bluster isn’t really strength. Threats and bombing from afar don’t make other countries capitulate. Working with allies has made America stronger, not weaker. And launching this war without legal authorization, allied support or a good strategy for success has empowered Iran, harming the U.S. in the process.
