Trump just lost a key piece of his MAGA coalition: data expert

President Donald Trump is in a huge spiral with his own supporters, data analyst Harry Enten explained on Friday.

Speaking to CNN host John Berman, Enten explained that non-college voters were a key constituency for Trump in all of his elections. That's not the case anymore. Now it appears the president is losing support.

In Oct. 2024, Trump was up with non-college voters in the MAGA movement by 8 points. Now, Trump is 22 points underwater, a Marquette Law School survey revealed. It's a 28-point swing.

"So the bottom line is this: The group in which the Trump movement was built upon — they are shifting away and saying, we don't like MAGA anymore," Enten said.

Over the past several months, as Trump has lost support among non-MAGA Republicans and Independents, he was still able to maintain support among his MAGA loyalists. That's no longer true.

"In the 2024 election, he won them by 13 points. Right?" Enten said about non-college voters. "That was the reason he won. He won among non-college voters a very strong performance amongst them. And that, of course, was the reason he was able to win because college voters were against him. But look at this now, minus 19 points! Minus 19 points! We're talking about an even bigger shift here."

He calculated it's a 32-point shift away from Trump in his "key core political group."

According to Enten, "This is why he's in so much trouble. It's not just that college voters are against Trump. Now, it turns out that non-college voters, the ones that he built his presidential bid on, have waved adios, goodbye. See you later, Mr. Trump. We don't like you anymore."

Enten was asked whether that translates to support for Democrats or opposition to Republican candidates aligned with Trump.

"Well, if you're a congressional Republican, you wish" they didn't like Democrats, Enten said. "I have bad, bad news for you, because it turns out that the non-college voters are turning on you, too. And it may, in fact, turn you out of power in the congressional elections coming up in the midterms."

Republicans are down by 13 points with non-college voters while Democrats are up by one.

"It's just a point, but you know what? When it comes to a point and given how well the Democrats are doing among college voters, these are the types of numbers in which blue waves are built," said Enten. "And therefore, we can say that the key group that put Donald Trump in the White House, the key group that he built the MAGA movement upon, is leaving him. And it's leaving congressional Republicans too."