Americans face a grim choice this winter — thanks to Trump

Moving towards November is affecting more than the elections. The seasonal changeover from gasoline refining to home heating will be transferring the high cost of oil fuel to home heating.

Already, the prospective rise – massive in some areas of the Northeast – has emerged as an elections issue in the Maine senatorial race with harsh words for Sen. Susan Collins from Democratic opponent Troy Jackson.

An Axios analysis finds prices jumping at least $2 per gallon for home heating oil over this time in 2025 from around $2.50 to $4.63 now, and projected to cross the $6 per gallon price by deep winter. Families that heat with oil could pay about 50% more this winter than last, according to from the National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA), up from its 31.3% projection in mid-September.

The average cost of heating a home with oil is expected to rise by about $878, costing over $2,600 this winter.

The reasons are the same as those for price hikes for gasoline at the pump – wars in the Middle East, and to a lesser extent, between Ukraine and Russia, which has depressed global output.

By comparison, the Energy Information Administration’s Winter Fuels Outlook projects electricity bills will rise 4% nationally, while natural gas bills will fall 9% and propane spending will drop 3%. EIA expects a smaller increase on heating oil than NEADA, projecting a 21% increase in household expenditures.

Hitting the Northeast

More than 80 percent of home heating oil is consumed in the Northeast, where some states lack robust natural gas pipelines, according to NEADA data. Overall, about 3% of U.S. households use oil as their primary heat source, compared to about 45% using natural gas and 43% using electricity, EIA’s report says.

Global oil markets have been struck by the distribution patterns through the Strait of Hormuz and now through the Red Sea, where Houthis are battling with Saudis. Refinery activity has declined in Iran, the result of U.S. embargoes on Iranian oil export.

As a practical matter, some families will cut back on other expenses or turn the heat down to potentially unsafe levels to cover their bills. There will be pressure on states to offer aid for heating oil or look at requiring utilities to offer discounts, affordability programs or winter shutoff protections. Those generally have not applied to independent heating-oil dealers.

Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey declared a State of Energy Emergency over rising winter energy costs, unlocking nearly $150 million in relief and expanding assistance to middle-class households that heat with oil. Rhode Island has also declared an energy affordability emergency and directed $28 million in reserves toward winter electric-bill relief, and Maine Gov. Janet Mills announced $40 million in automatically applied electricity discounts for low-income residents.

Of course, the energy affordability issues are compounded by the Trump administration’s attempts to dismantle the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, or LIHEAP. The administration fired LIHEAP’s federal staff at the Department of Health and Human Services in April 2025 and proposed eliminating funding for the program.

LIHEAP is still running, but state administrators are operating without dedicated federal staff.

The White House has HHS, which said it “will carry out its responsibilities for funding Congress has made available” and that “HHS has the staff and capacity to distribute these funds in a timely manner.”

Terry H. Schwadron retired as a senior editor at The New York Times, Deputy Managing Editor at The Los Angeles Times and leadership jobs at The Providence (RI) Journal-Bulletin. He was part of a Pulitzer Gold Medal team in Los Angeles, and his team part of several Pulitzers in New York.