U.S. President Donald Trump gestures, after returning from attending a rally at Macomb Community College to mark his 100th day in office, at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, U.S., April 29, 2025.
Republican pollster Frank Luntz is sounding the alarm for Democrats that, while they're expected to win back control of Congress if President Donald Trump manages to convince his MAGA loyalists to support Republicans, it may not be the blowout that is expected. That said, Luntz cautioned it's a "dangerous" strategy.
CNN's Audi Cornish on Monday asked Luntz whether pretending Trump is on the ballot would ultimately help or hurt.
"I'm looking at a turnout differential that advantages the Democrats by a couple of points, which means that there are more people who oppose Donald Trump who are planning to vote, and those who support him," he began.
That could change if Trump manages to excite the supporters who remain with him.
"Now, here's the issue," Luntz continued. "When he is on the ballot, his people come out. They participate. They did in the on-year elections 2016 and 2024. And they did not in 2018. And they did not as much. Even when Joe Biden was the president [after] 2020 for the 2022 election. So that's what he's trying to do. His numbers, his support is not as strong today as it has been in the past. So, it's a very dangerous strategy."
Those key places he must bring his voters to the polls are traditionally red states like Texas, said Luntz. After voting Sen. John Cornyn (R) out of the Senate, his GOP challenger, Ken Paxton, isn't exciting voters. In fact, it's the opposite.
Other states he mentioned are Iowa, Alaska and Ohio.
"If the Trump voters don't participate, the Democrats will achieve an upset," he said. "So, I understand the strategy, but it has multiple impacts we need to take into account as we start to make projections for election day."
Key voting groups analysts and pollsters have been watching are Latino voters, who supported Trump in 2024, but as his deportation efforts turned into a very different operation than what he campaigned on, the demographic has abandoned him.
"But he saw the difference. He saw what it did to his own support and what it did for senators and congressmen who are running at the same time," said Luntz. "The other group I'm looking at are male union voters, who moved towards the Republicans in historic levels in 2024. The third group is younger voters, voters under the age of 30 who cast more votes for Donald Trump again in 2024, more than they usually do."
These groups also supported Republicans down the ballot.
"And I have a simple challenge to vote to people who watch how voters are reacting: If Trump can keep the House and keep the Senate, he has proven how powerful he is," Luntz cautioned.
He also said that despite that, Trump has no more influence on races than any other Republican in history. The difference this time around is that "voters are angry, and they want results, not rhetoric."
Voters expect Trump to make changes based on their votes in November when it comes to the top issues like the war in Iran and the affordability crisis.
"And I'd say one more thing to people who are working for donald Trump, you can bash the pollsters all you want on Election Day is, the great quote John Wooden said, 'The votes are the votes. The results are the results.' And I think this is going to be a challenge for GOP candidates," said Luntz.
The caveat is whether people still believe in Trump enough to stage an upset.
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