President Donald Trump appears to be laying the groundwork for a risky strategy if Republicans lose the upcoming midterm elections. With polls showing growing frustration over rising costs and declining confidence in Trump’s ability to improve the economy, early voting trends, even in traditionally Republican states, suggest the political pendulum may be swinging toward Democrats. Trump has a history of making unfounded claims of election fraud when results do not go his way. Now, experts warn that if Democrats regain control of the House, Trump could use unsubstantiated allegations of foreign election interference to cast doubt on the midterm results and undermine public confidence in the outcome.
Critics argue he has already begun laying the foundation for such a response, citing a July speech in which Trump suggested China had stolen or manipulated votes. Many believe his remarks could have been a preview of what he might say if Republicans lose seats in the midterms. They fear he could use those allegations to justify federal intervention, including attempts to seize ballots or disrupt vote-counting. “We start with the premise that the president is going to do that,” said Rep. Jim Himes in a chat with reporters, per The Atlantic, about Trump's potential efforts to challenge election results. “We have never seen an operation to actually interfere,” he added.
During his July address, Trump claimed China had illegally obtained 220 million U.S. voter records, including information belonging to voters in 18 states, through hacking, theft or unauthorized purchases. He accused intelligence officials of concealing the alleged interference and further claimed that China had attempted to produce fraudulent ballots for Joe Biden during the 2020 election. The allegations have proven unfounded, as there is no evidence that China manipulated actual votes or influenced the election's outcome.
Some argue that Trump’s messaging is not just damaging, but dangerous. “The new threat in this election is the administration,” Lawrence Norden, the vice president of the Elections and Government Program at the Brennan Center, said in his interview with The Atlantic. “It would be extremely hard for a foreign or outside actor to reach the actual vote. And we have a paper backup of almost every vote that is cast in the United States at this point.”
Experts worry that the Trump administration’s potential claims of foreign interference could discredit legitimate election results and make Americans question the outcome. It also does not benefit Trump to do so, considering he’s lost favor with many of his own supporters.