New analysis highlights grim predictions for the upcoming midterms
With less than a week until the midterm elections, a new analysis is shedding light on a disturbing shift that might tilt elections in favor of Republicans.
On Tuesday, November 1, Cook Political Report released its latest ratings for 10 additional House races in California, Illinois, New Jersey, New York, and Oregon that are typically considered "solid blue," according to Axios' Josh Kraushaar.
Per the news outlet, "If all of Cook’s 'lean,' 'likely' and 'solid' Republican races hold, the GOP would only need to win 6 of the 35 'toss up' races to take the majority. Democrats would need to win 29 of the 35. FiveThirtyEight's Senate forecast shows the race for the upper chamber remains in a 'dead heat,' but gave Republicans a lead (51/49) for the first time since July."
Kraushaar went on to highlight two key races that are a reflection of the poll projections: One, the battle between Pennsylvania Senate candidates John Fetterman and Mehmet Oz.
"Pennsylvania Senate nominee John Fetterman swept the Democratic primary because of that blue-collar appeal," he wrote. "But ads battering him on crime, along with the reaction to last week's debate, have dimmed Democratic optimism about winning the bellwether Senate race."
He also pointed to the battle brewing in Ohio.
He added, "Ohio Senate nominee Tim Ryan represented a working-class northeast Ohio district in the House, and focused his campaign on union members and pitching an everyman appeal. His moderate campaign has won over some skeptics, but he still faces a difficult challenge in a red-trending state that Donald Trump carried by 8 points."
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Despite the grim poll projections, the news outlet highlighted one silver lining for the Democratic Party. "Candidate quality — perhaps Democrats’ biggest advantage this cycle — may not be as decisive as it once seemed," Kraushaar wrote.
He later added, "At the same time, extreme or unprepared Republican nominees may not be as big a liability as they once seemed. With the growing possibility of a red wave, it's possible that some flawed MAGA-aligned candidates could win despite their political struggles."
