MoveOn and Dean Make the Big Leagues

MoveOn.org, the online activist group, and Howard Dean, the upstart presidential candidate, appear to be on parallel paths reinforcing each other's success, even as they change the ground rules of presidential politics.

In breaking news, the former Vermont governor stunned other Democratic contenders by raising more than $7 million in the last quarter, with money pouring in during the final hours -- nearly $1 million in the last few days -- just prior to the June 30 filing deadline. Dean's overall total is over $9 million; a figure, says The New York Times, that transforms him "from a maverick into a more traditional contender."

Dean celebrated his success Monday night in front of more than 500 cheering supporters at a fundraiser at the Roxy, a predominantly gay club in the Chelsea neighborhood of Manhattan. The makeup of the crowd gave some hints of the appeal Dean has for young and practical-minded voters. Mitch Manzella, a recent Rutgers grad who coordinates the Dean Internet Meet up.org campaigns in suburban New Jersey, said that, "Dean connects with people who want to get involved; he makes a lot of sense and people respond to him."

Manzella's sentiments were echoed by Deanna Zandt, a self-described "computer geek" in the telecommunications industry, who publishes her own poetry zine. "It is my intuitive sense that Dean is very real. He says what he thinks, and he is pragmatic."

MoveOn.org PAC's successful online primary held last week with more than 317,000 voters participating gave Dean added momentum, although his 44 percent total was shy of the 50 percent threshold that would have led to more campaign cash and MoveOn's endorsement.

The biggest factor in Dean's emergence has undoubtedly been his success in using the Internet for fundraising. MoveOn members have been a key part of that effort. Dean campaign spokesperson Trish Engler estimated that more of a quarter of Dean's donations surge in the last few days came from MoveOn members and that overall, fully 77 percent of Dean's funding has come from the Internet.

The Big Leagues

Meanwhile, if having a New York Times editorial written about you is the Big Leagues in American politics, then MoveOn.org PAC has made it to the majors. In a June 27 editorial, The Times complimented the online activist group and political action committee, saying its recent online primary provides "a glimpse into the politics of the future."

In fact, MoveOn PAC may just have provoked a shift in American politics, adding "Internet activist" as an important constituency for the Democratic Party along with voters in early states, labor unions, local political clubs, etc. Joe Trippi, campaign manager for Dean, said, "This is an historic event in American politics. It's a primary where hundreds of thousands of people got together early on and said this is who we support right now."

MoveOn's June 24-25 primary didn't actually produce any big surprises, but that didn't stop campaign operatives from spinning away. Dean topped runner-up Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich (rhymes with spinach) by 20 points with just under 44 percent of the vote.

Even falling short of the necessary 50 percent needed for consensus, the Dean campaign was plenty happy. "We're ecstatic about the 44 percent," Trippi told Salon reporter Michelle Goldberg. "We thought, given the number of candidates and the fact that you can vote 'undecided' or 'other,' we'd be lucky to end up with 30."

Kucinich people, on the other hand, were quick to also claim a victory of sorts. "If early primaries are about beating expectations, then the clear winner of the MoveOn primary is Dennis Kucinich," said campaign spokesman Jeff Cohen. "While pundits have tried to relegate us to fringe or second-tier status, Dennis came in second with 76,000 votes, 24 percent of the total."

Cohen added: "The Dean campaign did not exceed expectations -- since many thought, given his early start and Internet presence, he'd reach 50 percent and win MoveOn's endorsement. The Kerry campaign did not -- it is the best-funded, highest-polling campaign. It's the Kucinich campaign that scored big on the MoveOn primary."

Still, Sen. John Kerry's modest third-place showing -- he garnered 16 percent of the vote -- is also in line with expectations that he's the candidate progressives would likely embrace if Dean and Kucinich fall by the wayside. (Seventy-five percent of MoveOn voters said they would "enthusiastically support" Kerry in the event he got the nomination.) Kerry currently is the candidate of the Beltway progressives; the American Prospect crowd and the pragmatic policy wonks. With his record of government service and war hero history, not to mention his presidential demeanor and wealthy wife, the Massachusetts senator looks like a winner in their eyes.

If there was a slight surprise in the primary, it was how poorly the rest of the candidates did. Gephardt and Edwards barely registered at 3 percent and African American candidates Al Sharpton and Carol Mosely Braun were virtually invisible.

On the other hand, when one matches the MoveOn.org PAC primary with the overall array of Democratic candidates, no clear leader emerges, although there are signs that Dean might just become the Jimmy Carter of the 2004 race -- an outsider who appeals to voters' desire to transcend political divisions. It's possible to imagine some early gridlock next March if Kerry and Dean are at the top in New Hampshire; Gephardt gets endorsed by labor and does well in Iowa; Edwards continues to raise a lot of money and is strong in the South Carolina primary; and Kucinich as the pure progressive, continues to rock the boat. The whole primary campaign could be a horse race well into the spring.

Who is More Progressive?

One of Kucinich's themes in particular bears watching. "As this process goes on, and the differences in the candidates' positions become known to Democratic voters, we are poised to move on and move up," Kucinich says.

Kucinich's point is that he is clearly more progressive than Dean on a host of issues; single payer health care, the military budget, foreign policy and the death penalty, to name just a few.

On the day of Dean's official announcement last Monday, The New York Times observed that the former governor had "moved sharply away from the issues that had catapulted him to early prominence: his opposition to the Iraq war and, to a lesser extent, his advocacy for universal health care. ...He did not mention Iraq once in the course of his 26-minute speech."

The Kucinich campaign likes to tell the story from the Presidential Candidates' Forum sponsored by the Rainbow/PUSH Coalition. Tavis Smiley of NPR asked candidates to discuss the "Digital Divide" (the disparity in computer access between whites/middle class and minorities/poor).

Part of Kucinich's answer was : "I have here a little pen that was given to me by Ben Cohen and it shows the priorities. That big red line is the money we spend for the Pentagon. The middle line, the little red dot, is the money we spend for education. As long as we're spending so much money for the Pentagon, and so little money for education, we're going to have all kinds of divides in this country."

Dean spoke next: "I don't agree with Dennis about cutting the Pentagon budget when we're in the middle of a difficulty with terror attacks."

Yet, it's been an article of faith for progressives that the current defense budget, the lack of attention for aspects of homeland security and particularly our role as the world's chief exporter of weapons makes the country less safe -- and the military budget is part of the problem. However, the more simplistic Dean position on not cutting the military budget will likely play better with the party establishment, corporate media and moderate voters.

Tracy Schmaler of the Vermont Press Bureau recently reported that Dean seems to be discarding some of his "liberal tendencies," a change especially discernible in his evolving support for the death penalty. "In his 11 years as Vermont's governor, his position on capital punishment evolved from staunch opposition to limited support, as Dean acknowledges. Now, on the stump for the Democratic nomination for president, Dean has extended his endorsement of a death sentence for those who kill children or police officers to include those who commit terrorist acts."

While these Dean shifts, or fine-tuning as some call them, are underscored by progressives trying to rally voters to the Kucinich cause, there is little evidence that Dean voters are troubled by them. As Dean supporter Zandt notes, "Dean is realistic. He knows he needs people in Nebraska to join on as well as those in New York and New Hampshire."

Don Hazen is executive editor of AlterNet.