Democrats likely to build overwhelming majority on Wisconsin Supreme Court: data analyst

There is an election on Tuesday in several states, but one is standing out to CNN data analyst Harry Enten: the Wisconsin Supreme Court.

Speaking to host John Berman on Monday, Enten explained that the seat is currently held by a conservative state Supreme Court Justice. Given how these elections have been turning against Republicans, however, it could turn the liberal leaning majority into "an overwhelming majority."

These races are non-partisan, but in recent years, they have become increasingly partisan, with specific ideologies being revealed through policy positions.

The challenger, Chris Taylor, is heavily favored to win the race, Enten explained, citing the "prediction markets."

"And this would take the court from four three liberal to five two liberal" majority, Enten explained.

The state has become important, Berman said, because in the presidential elections it tends to break with a 50/50 split. Given it has so many electoral votes, it has become a critical battleground state in the Electoral College.

As President Donald Trump launches lawsuits over election matters, a liberal state Supreme Court majority will make important decisions on election laws and any legal battles around state legislation.

"But more than that, the trends in Wisconsin tend to go countrywide," Enten highlighted. "What are we talking about in terms of this? Enthusiasms, enthusiasms, enthusiasms, to quote my dear friend John Berman there, quoting somebody else. More enthusiastic voters for 2026. Look at this: At this point, for the Wisconsin Supreme Court race, Democrats have a 19-point edge on extremely motivated, extremely enthusiastic voters. Look how similar that is to what we're seeing in the national polls for the U.S. House race for Congress, right?"

In that case, Democratic enthusiasm for Congress is at 17.

"So what happens in Wisconsin is very unlikely to stay in Wisconsin. It is reflective of what we're seeing nationally, which is Democrats are revved up and ready to go," Enten said.

He also compared Wisconsin to the off-year elections seen in New Jersey and Virginia. In 2017, when those two states went blue, Wisconsin's off-year elections did too.

"It looks a whole heck of a lot like what we saw back in the 2017, 2018 cycle, right? N.J. gov, Virginia gov, Wisconsin Supreme Court. They flipped the seat there back in 2018," Enten said.

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