Trump campaign promise is sinking him in this key swing state

In 2024, one of Donald Trump's campaign promises was "no tax on tips." And the promise generated a lot of discussion in Nevada, one of the swing states that Trump flipped after having lost it to Democrat Joe Biden in 2020. But according to Bloomberg News' Caitlin Reilly, the promise isn't getting a lot of enthusiasm in 2026 in Las Vegas — a city where tipped workers are plentiful but tips are down.

"When a Las Vegas cocktail waitress pitched President Donald Trump on eliminating taxes on tips," Reilly explains in Bloomberg News, "it seemed like a surefire bet: an easily digestible policy that could break Democrats' longtime hold on Nevada's political machine by wooing culinary workers. At first, it seemed to work, with Trump becoming the first Republican presidential candidate to capture the state in two decades. But like many schemes cooked up on the Las Vegas Strip, Trump's luck may be running out."

Trump's "no tax on tips" promise, according to Reilly, is running into problems with tipped workers in Las Vegas because "the city took a hit in the first year of Trump’s term with a sharp drop in tourism, blunting the financial impact of the president’s tax relief."

"Many said new deductions for tips, overtime and seniors boosted tax refunds, but higher costs for groceries, healthcare, housing and gas gobbled up those extra savings," Reilly reports. "And with voters headed to the polls on Tuesday in the state's primary elections, some Republicans are expressing concern that the no-tax-on-tips policy intended to be the cornerstone of their midterm campaign risks being drowned out."

Tourism, according to Reilly, is down in Las Vegas — and many of the tips that service workers rely on there come from tourists.

Rep. Mark Amodei (R-Nevada), who isn't seeking reelection in the 2026 midterms, told Bloomberg News, "I get more money, but then, when you put it in the context of the economy isn't exactly kicking tail at the moment. I just think in overall context, you're like, hey, that's great, but $6 a gallon gas isn't good."

Eric Lobatos, a tipped worker in Las Vegas, told Bloomberg News that although Trump's "no tax on tips" policy gave him some modest relief, the city's decline in tourism is creating a drop in tips.

Lobatos lamented, "It wasn't, like, life-changing amounts of money. It's not making up for what we're taking a loss in."