Democrats suffered major disappointments in Pennsylvania in 2024 when Donald Trump narrowly defeated Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris and three-term Democratic Sen. Bob Casey Jr. was voted out of office. But Democratic strategists are feeling optimistic about Pennsylvania in the 2026 midterms. According to the Philadelphia Inquirer, Trump's trade war with Canada is hitting the Keystone Star hard — and the pain is having both political and economic fallout.
"President Donald Trump says he's holding Canada accountable for 'ripping off' the United States through unfair trade practices," journalists Andrew Seidman and Lizzie Mulvey report in the Inquirer. "But by imposing new tariffs on Canadian goods and prompting retaliation from one of America's largest trading partners, U.S. businesses and consumers could face higher costs, analysts said — including in key electoral battlegrounds like Pennsylvania."
The Keystone State, according to Seidman and Mulvey, "sold $13.4 billion in goods last year to Canada — its largest export market."
"About $2 billion worth of those goods, or 16 percent, will be subject to higher tariffs — some as high as 50 percent — starting September 8 after Canada this week announced new levies, according to an Inquirer analysis of trade data," the reporters note. "Some of the state's top exports facing new tariffs include raw aluminum, lumber, and passenger vehicles."
Lauren Swartz, CEO of the nonprofit World Affairs Council of Philadelphia, is sounding the alarm about the effects Trump's trade war with Canada will have in her state.
Swartz told the Inquirer, "When we think about what that means for Pennsylvania, it's going to be loud. My sense is the rhetoric that we're hearing, and the fact that it's already being labeled a trade war, is that both countries are reserving the right to escalate the level, the percentage of tariffs, as well as the scope of goods that will fall under the new trade war. So, it will expand."
The tariffs' effect on Pennsylvania is a major focus of centrist Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro, who is seeking reelection and has been leading GOP nominee Stacy Garrity in polls.
Manuel Bonder, a spokesman for Shapiro's campaign, told the Inquirer, "Donald Trump's reckless tariffs are a tax on Pennsylvanians — and Gov. Shapiro has been fighting back against them from Day 1. This president has raised costs for families, screwed over our farmers, and shut down markets for businesses — all with Stacy Garrity's 100 percent support."
Shapiro's attacks on Garrity and Trump appear to be working.
A recent New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll found Garrity trailing Shapiro by 16 percent. And according to a Franklin & Marshall poll released in late August, Shapiro has a 25 percent lead over her.
Shapiro is being mentioned as a possible presidential candidate for 2028, and Democratic strategists are arguing that he needs to win big on Election Night in order to show that he's capable of going the distance in a tough swing state that Trump won in 2016 and 2024 but lost to Joe Biden in 2020.
