Trump’s big idea was an 'epic political blunder' — and GOP is paying for it

In 2024, President Donald Trump declared that “tariff” was not only a “beautiful word,” but his “favorite” in the dictionary. In September 2026, however, after the world has spent over a year and a half grappling with his ever-shifting, often illegal tariff regime, it’s become clear that voters do not share Trump’s enthusiasm. This is according to Scott Lincicome, Vice President of General Economics and Trade at the Cato Institute, who wrote in the Washington Post on Tuesday that new data has revealed Americans’ anger at Trump’s beloved word — and that they may take it out on the GOP in November.

According to a new survey of registered voters, writes Linicome, “a startling 75 percent said tariffs will be important to their vote in the midterms this November, including 35 percent who said the issue is very important.” What’s more, “among respondents, 74 percent said tariffs raised prices at the store. Fifty-three percent said tariffs weakened the U.S. economy, versus 33 percent who said they strengthened it. Forty-nine percent said tariffs made their own lives worse; just 23 percent said better. Only 21 percent accepted President Donald Trump’s position that foreigners primarily pay tariffs.”

This represents a big problem for the GOP, as the tariffs have angered one vital voting block in particular. As Linicome explains, “Given the president’s affection for tariffs, Democrats unsurprisingly led the opposition, but independents — who often decide elections — weren’t far behind. Seventy-three percent of independents had an unfavorable view of Trump’s handling of trade policy, and opposition to broad tariffs tilted 47 percent to 28 percent. Fifty-two percent of independents said tariffs weakened the economy, and just 11 percent said the measures improved their quality of life — even lower than the 16 percent of Democrats who said the same. Sixty-four percent of independents said tariffs would be important to their midterm vote.” What’s more, “the current trade policy also lacks support from the working-class voters that Trump claims his tariffs champion. Across numerous questions, the views of both non-college-educated respondents and those whose households make less than $50,000 per year were within a few percentage points of the population overall. More than 70 percent of each group thought tariffs raised prices.”

While nearly 45 percent said that there was some justification to taxing imports, their support for tariffs dropped sharply the more the cost rose. 38 percent were willing to pay $100 per household, but just 29 percent would pay $1,000, and Republicans were no exception to this trend. As Linicome writes, “Their support dropped from 70 percent to just 39 percent when asked to pay $1,000 per year to fund their guy’s signature policy.” The real cost of Trump’s tariffs, notes Linicome, is so far roughly $1,100 per household annually.

Politicians are noticing the anger at tariffs, with Democrats campaigning against them and Republicans quietly taking legislative action to stop them. As Linicome notes, “In their words and deeds, American politicians of both parties have confirmed what the polls show: Trump’s ‘populist’ tariffs are historically unpopular.” Because of all this, writes Linicome, “Voters now widely distrust Republicans’ handling of the economy.”

“After winning on an affordability message in 2024, Trump’s early-term decision to repeatedly embrace a policy that, in both design and result, raises domestic prices was an epic political blunder,” concludes Linicome. “American voters now overwhelmingly agree,” and the GOP is poised to pay for it in November.