Trump ally’s failing campaign could doom GOP in top swing state

In Pennsylvania, Democratic strategists are feeling increasingly bullish about incumbent Gov. Josh Shapiro's chances of winning a second term in the 2026 midterms. Recent polls are showing State Treasurer Stacy Garrity, Shapiro's GOP challenger, trailing the moderate Democratic governor by 25 percent (Franklin & Marshall), 26 percent (the Bravo Group) or 17 percent (New York Times/Siena College). And according to the Washington Post's Dan Merica, Pennsylvania Republicans "are starting to worry that" Garrity's sinking campaign "is directly affecting four of the nation's most competitive House races."

"Pennsylvania is the definition of a battleground state," Merica explains in the Post. "Voters there have correctly picked the presidential winner since 2008. Democrats hold a narrow 200,000 edge in voter registration. And Pennsylvania races are often decided by notably thin margins. But Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro's run for reelection against Republican State Treasurer Stacy Garrity has been an outright romp so far. Every poll has shown Shapiro with a large lead, some approaching 30 percentage points."

Merica continues, "The Democratic governor outraised Garrity by $11.5 million this summer, bringing in $13 million compared to Garrity's $1.8 million. And Shapiro's campaign, according to ad tracker AdImpact, has either spent or plans to spend nearly $28 million on ads in the state, dwarfing the $750,000 Garrity has either spent or reserved."

Pennsylvania Republicans, according to Merica, fear that Garrity's "struggling campaign could weigh down other Republicans on the ballot" — including Scott Perry, Rob Bresnahan, Ryan Mackenzie and Brian Fitzpatrick, all of whom are competing in U.S. House of Representatives races.

"Garrity is atop the ballot for all these Republicans this year," Merica reports. "So a struggling Republican campaign will require down-ballot Republicans — including Perry, Bresnahan, Mackenzie and Fitzpatrick — to find enough crossover Shapiro voters to defy the downward pressure that Garrity is putting on their campaigns."

Sam Chen, a Pennsylvania-based GOP strategist, told the Post that while Garrity has "not run a good campaign" and is "going to lose" to Shapiro, President Donald Trump—not Garrity — is the biggest problem that "down-ballot" Republicans are facing in his state.

Chen warned, "What is going to hurt the down-ballot is the president, and specifically that he is not on the ballot. The president does this weird thing: When he is on the ballot, he has his own secret sauce ... When he is not on the ballot, it is like his baggage is on the ballot and his coattails are not."

Another GOP strategist, interviewed on condition of anonymity, told the Post, "Maybe Garrity's strategy is to run such an uninspiring campaign that the race is so much of an ass-kicking that Democrats don't feel the urgency to turn out on Election Day."

Although Shapiro shies away from the subject in interviews, he is being mentioned as a possible Democratic presidential candidate for 2028. And pundits are arguing that he needs a really big win in 2026 to show that he's capable of going the distance two years from now.

Pennsylvania-based Democratic strategist J.J. Abbott told the Post, "Gov. Shapiro seems to understand the importance of showing the country that Democrats can both win and govern, which is a huge hurdle for improving the Democratic brand nationally ahead of 2028. There's no better state to do that in PA, the largest and most visible battleground state."